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The EURUSD will likely play out in one of two ways, both of which are near term bearish but one is more bearish than the other in the intermediate term. One scenario is that a triangle is unfolding from yesterday's low at 1.3541. In this case, the next move is down towards the 100% extension of 1.3637-1.3541 / 1.3585 at 1.3489. A rally to new highs would be likely then since there would only be 3 waves down from 1.3637. A break above 1.3585 negates the triangle interpretation and suggests that a flat is unfloding from the 1.3541 low. Resistance would shift to fibo resistance (61.8% of 1.3637-1.3541 at 1.3600) but the longer term implications are more bearish as a 3rd wave down would follow and leave open the possibility of a full 5 wave decline from 1.3637. Watch potential trendline resistance near 1.3470.
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