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#11 (permalink)

04-25-2007, 01:57 AM

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IFO Ahead

We have IFO ahead and the market is looking for another print higher. Yesterday the Belgian Business index printed at 3.5 vs. 1.4 which is considerably higher. many analysts like to use the Begian number to handicap the IFO because Belguim does 94% of its business within teh Euro-zone and is therefore reflective of the overall business confidence in the region. But beware the correlation is not full proof. We are sidelined ahead of teh report, unable to decide which of the two factors - the high euro (hurting exports) or the overall pick up in growth will prevail.

One aspect of this report appears to be a high probability - given the ugliness of US data yesterday, a good print from IFO could take EURUSD to all time highs.

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