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It seems like the carry doesn't have much sway over the markets as of late. High yield currencies have gotten a boost from an RBNZ hike and the low yield JPY sees its overnight rate holding steady after the BoJ's meeting and semi-annual report; yet the next big trend keeps escaping USDJPY. I think it was interesting that policy officials were concerned about the level of the currency and suggested that they may come to the market with the much feared fx intervention.
Does anyone have any idea what the time table for such a round of intervention would be? It's been a while since they last came into the market like that and they usually don't say anything before and during. But they do say something afterwards and such policy in the past has preceeded turns. On the other hand, they may try talking it down again. But we have seen in other cases that concern doesn't translate to much for the stubborn carry traders.
In the interim I think the 119-119.90 range could offer some oppurtunities.
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