Let's see if we dissect these guys. (Sorry Euchre, let me take a stab at it ;-) )
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Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa
SSI: Contrarian Traders Call for EUR/USD at 1.37
Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.36837 -2.00 33% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.02232 -1.58 39% Bullish
USDJPY 115.373 1.92 66% Bearish
USDCHF 1.20176 2.94 75% Bearish
USDCAD 1.05325 4.04 80% Bearish
EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.00 as nearly 67% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.68 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.1% lower than yesterday and 15.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 18.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.7% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.
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The Euro's SSI reading is bullish on both a medium term and short term basis. Traders are heavily long, with long positions outweighing shorts by 2:1. The growing net longs only confirm this view, and leave further EUR upside through the short term. Watch out for tomorrow's NFP's, though. Any short-term scalp could easily turn into a loser on the extremely market-moving report.
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Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa
GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.29 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 20.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 16.3% higher than yesterday and 26.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.9% stronger than yesterday and 25.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.
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See the description for the EURUSD SSI positioning above. It's basically the same assessment.
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Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa
USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.92 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.92 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 19.1% higher than yesterday and 3.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 19.2% higher than yesterday and 32.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 19.1% stronger than yesterday and 13.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
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The medium term trend remains bearish for the USDJPY, but the shorter term sees scope for a rally. The large gain in short positions leaves risks to the topside in the near term.
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Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa
USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.94 as nearly 75% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.46 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.5% higher than yesterday and 42.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 49.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.1% stronger than yesterday and 11.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.
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Look at the description for the EURUSD above, but read it exactly upside-down. the USDCHF SSI reading is bearish both on a medium term and short term basis.
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Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.04 as nearly 80% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.21 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.4% lower than yesterday and 7.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 1.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.6% weaker than yesterday and 2.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
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The medium term direction for the USDCAD remains lower, but recent range trade and a slight moderation in net-longs leaves scope for a shorter-term rally.
Euchre, alternate readings are of course welcome.
