Go Back   DailyFX Forex Forum | FX Forum

View Single Post
  #480 (permalink)  
Old 09-12-2007, 12:54 AM
John Kicklighter's Avatar
John Kicklighter John Kicklighter is offline
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,805
John Kicklighter is an unknown quantity at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by economist
hi all,

rumours are circulating that the Japanese PM Abe intends to resign; if this materializes then the USD-JPY may head higher along with the yen crosses. But the carry trade dimension may complicate things: suppose Nikkei tumbles big time and carry trade starts unwinding.

So this could prove to be very interesting indeed.

Any thoughts?
I just came across the article on his resignation on FT.com just a few minutes ago. Crazy.

I think you are right. His resignation will have to be interpreted by the currency market. On the one hand, you have considerations like carry trade and event risk stealing the yen spot light. However, this morning we really don't have any major economic releases scheduled that would inherently upset the risk balance (though the RBNZ's decision due late in the US session would definitely count as a market-moving indicator in current market conditions).

Even discounting exogenous risk flows though, I don't think this announcement would immediately lead to a yen drop. While under normal circumstances the uncertainty could generate a backflow from the yen, this doesn't seem like it would disrupt too many of the FX factors. The Abe government hasn't done much to help the yen through economic and foreign policy. What's more, this won't likely have much of an impact on interest rate policy from the BoJ since they are already hampered by growth fears and credit problems. On the other hand, should the Nikkei plunge 3 percent on the news, that could inadvertently guide the yen higher.

Does anyone know who his likely successor will be? I'm hoping it will be someone a little more attuned to the domestic economy (and hopefully one who has a strong background in economics with an opinion on low interest rates and memory of the similarities between the hyper investment period of decades past).
Reply With Quote
 


Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:21 AM.
Copyright ©2009 Daily FX. All Rights Reserved.