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I've been looking across the yen crosses to see if there is a good trade (outside of the majors) on the Fed event risk.
USDJPY is almost assuredly out of the picture. The pair's reaction to the rate decision will likely be too muddled and ambiguous to divine a clear yen trade from. Looking at the various scenarios: a surprise 50bp cut would encourage a sell off on the dollar, but would encourage carry and general risk bidding; no cut would lead the dollar to rebound from its depressed state but the disappointment and sell off in equities could put downside pressure on USDJPY. Realistically, the general interest in the dollar has begun to outshine the pair's correlation to risk and equities action; but who is to say this won't instantly change with a big slap of event risk.
From the crosses, I was looking at possible scenarios from NZDJPY and CADJPY, but I like AUDJPY most for its technical setup. Good rising trend on risk acceptance with a previous major swing high just in sight. Good position for a considerable surprise to the upside or downside.
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