Quote:
Originally Posted by hussin naiji
have a year good for david.john,terri,antonio,jamie and all ,totally for www.dailyfx.com |
I hope you have a happy holidays and profitable new year as well hussin.
As for my upcoming vacation (counting the minutes at this point), I have just found one of the few pairs that I will keep a vigilant eye on through the low liquidity/high volatility period: USDJPY.
Looking at the daily chart it looks like spot has nestled up close to a significant level of resistance in a falling trend, SMA, and Fib all around 114. Naturally, as this is a medium term falling trend, I would be positioning for a downside break; though we are entering some unusual conditions so that straightfoward approach won't do.
On the other hand, zooming into the 240-minute time frame we can see a rising trend in the lower time frame and some a very suspect congestion range between 113.50 and 112.75 (the support happening to correspond to the bottom of the rising trend).
While I know breakouts during holiday trading can quickly turn into false moves and otherwise strong levels can be slowly broken down by choppy price action, I feel that USDJPY has the best chance among the majors for serious movement. This pair is highly sensitive to risk, so any announcements by central banks to take advantage of the general calm can be expressed in USDJPY (perhaps as a hedge to closed equity and debt markets?). What's more, their will be plenty of eastern Asian interest still in the market while most of the West is off. Also, we still have fundamental interest from Japan next week (BSI on the 24th), so there is plenty to go on.
I'm going to decide on some tentative orders today (perhaps long above 114.05 and short below 112.45) with tight stops to cover me while I'm traveling tomorrow morning. Then, when I get back in front of a computer, I'll just monitor price action as normal.
