Quote:
Originally Posted by tradermoe
as you can see from the daily chart i believe we are in a sideways trend and presently in a wedge pattern. the rsi is very close to 70 and is also in a triangle pattern, both are in red trendlines. also we are very close to the recent high. even though the rsi has broken its trendline upward i do believe that the trend will make its way down. we just need proof, which will be if it breaks the wedge's support line. if it does that then the measurement is about 500 pips starting around 1.4750 with a target around 1.4250. the fib retracement starts at 1.3350 and goes to 1.4900. 38.2% is around 1.4320. i believe that area will be a good place to buy again. if price reaches the 1.4320 area then that will for a double pattern. if price breaks through that support then it will have completed the double pattern and look for profits about 500 pips. if not, then we will look for another test of the 1.4900 area. i also drew in fibs from start of uptrend at 1.2485 to 1.4900 area. the smaller drawn fibs and bigger drawn fibs show convergence of 38.2% and 61.8% around 1.3950, which would = about 400 pips from break of double pattern. so it will probably stop around that area. and i believe that will be a strong support, stronger than 1.4300 area to break.
would appreciate feedback what people think of this analysis.
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Traditionally, the EUR/USD has been considered the ANTI-DOLLAR. This usually means that when U.S. fundamentals are poor, the Euro goes up.
With a dismal retail sales number, continued losses due to subprime in banking stocks like Citibank, and the high price of crude oil, the EUR/USD is experiencing new strength.
Yes, this is a Fibonacci forum, but we can't, as traders, stick our heads in the sand concerning fundamentals. These fundamentals that drove up the EUR/USD and drove down the dollar in 2007 have not changed going into 2008.
Our job as professional traders is to identify the Dominant Trend and enter trades in the direction of that trend. Trading what we see is important.
Many an account has gone up in smoke trying to short this BIG DOG.
