Quote:
Originally Posted by amcgeh01
Hi John,
I am new to this forum and have enjoyed your very insightful columns... Now on your variation of the VIX - back when I was trading options on equities.. We used to remember it as: When the VIX is High - it's time to Buy and when the VIX is low - It's time to go...!! Would that be a similar situation with your VIX or opposite. Thanks in advance.. - A.J.
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The trading concepts will be the same between the two markets, but how you use it is dependent on your trading style.
I actually used to trade options on equities and indices and used the extreme volatility readings as a contrarian gauge - so a VIX (or other relevant implied volatility reading for that asset) reading within the top 15% of the past year's action would encourage me to sell options spreads. On the other hand, a reading within the bottom 10% of volatility would lead me to buy spreads or naked options for big jumps in delta and gamma.
This can be adapted into spot currency by using the extreme low volatility readings as a means for predicting breakouts and extreme high readings as a guide towards trends or consolidation.
Of course, you can use this as an indicator that doesn't fight the trend. If you aren't at extremes, rising volatility may encourage you back into the market for more trading opportunities. Or, a falling VIX may signal a lack of activity ahead and fading options for swing or day trading.
Another way to use the DailyFX VIX (which is how we use here on the research desk) is to apply the volatility reading as a filter for what type of market conditions to expect and therefore what style we should be trading. Carry and range based systems will do poorly when volatility is high. On the other hand, the trends and breakouts will do well under such conditions.