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Old 07-08-2008, 12:32 PM
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John Kicklighter John Kicklighter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocaine View Post
Thanks.
Please see my jpg file.
What do you mean about this chart?
How can i use this data at carry trade?
This graph would have a very indirect influence on your carry trade picks.

The current account deficit as a percentage of GDP is often used as a measure of overall economic health; but in my opinion it is difficult to judge just how well it does that job because some economies are more dependent on trade than others.

What's more, growth trends are lagging and take a long time to develop. Therefore, using them for interest rate expectations (the primary driver for currency direction and carry returns) is less useful for anything less than the long-term.

I would use interest rate expectations measured through swaps, Libor rates, short-term government debt and compare them between countries to guide my outlook for yield differentials and the direction of exchange rates. But even after you establish this, you need to find a measure that tells you whether carry is a safe strategy (just think about what happen to it after the subprime meltdown last summer). I typically use a volatility measure for that purpose (the DailyFX Volatility Index).
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