Quote:
Originally Posted by djindyfx
Good to see you A. £ is dropping like a Rock while you were out.. You see a Hard bounce comming off of 1.9336?
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Hey djindyfx and arodriguez,
You guys have to like the volatility we have seen recently.
I had a very small short position down at 1.9850; and more or less ignored the building momentum in favor of exotic crosses.
However, I'm liking the potential activity we could get around 1.9450/350. I see you are looking at the same area djindyfx.
As I see it, we are still 75-100 points off a significant rising trendline (from 5/2006 or 3/2007 depending on how you look at it); so we have a buffer for volatility following the Fed decision.
If we have hawkish expectations but no hike, GBPUSD could move drop; but technicals still make for a strong probability that spot won't enter a new dominant trend.
Of course, if we get a hike, the pair will drop, it may stall a little at support, but ultimately it may just have the necessary selling pressure to get us below 1.94 and then 1.93.
These are the two scenarios I'm setting up for (leaving out a distinctly neutral outcome or bearish dovish overall as the risk/reward would be hard to arrange). Anyone have a different outlook on price action and how event risk will play in?
