@RBP
"That's quite a post" indeed (as John said.) And what a load of - pardon me - crap. O.K., let's see now. So the Canadian economy is shrinking, collapsing, going to the dogs. (some of the words used here every once in a while) Finally the loonie is heading towards the well-deserved basement and everybody is cheering its demise.
Thirty or so years ago 1 USD bought - what? - 3 CHF? And now? A mere 1.05 CHF. I call that movement over a very long time more of an indication of a country's economic health than a 5% movement over a week.
What about using the "economic performance" argument to the USD/CHF pair? The CHF lost as much against the USD as the CAD in exactly the same time frame during the last 5-10 days. Oh the poor, poor Swiss economy, with record exports, unemployment under 3% since decades, and inflation only now rising to - good heavens - 3%. It's going to the dogs. (Though, the UBS bank might). Right. How can anyone with any sense of reality attribute the days-old movement of a country's currency vis-a-vis the USD to economic performance of that country? The U.S. economy is producing one of the most spectacular decline in almost every department and yet the USD is on the rise now for at least a week. A spectacular 5% against a whole slew of economies in far better shape than that of the U.S.
And the role of oil to explain the CAD? I submit if you depend on that analysis you will lose money.
A few months ago the USD was down to 0.91 CAD while oil was worth "only" about 90 USD (but going up, which we didn't yet know how high) Yet today economists are blabbering about the CAD going down because oil is "only" 120 USD (but perhaps going down some more. Or maybe up again? NOONE KNOWS)

These numbers are spectacularly out of line with the movement of currency pair values. The short term fluctuations of currency pair values can and are used by technical traders to make and lose huge fortunes.

Traders who keep extrapolating Fibonacci data to predict the future shouldn't pay so much attention to what the economists are blabbering about. As if THEY knew why currencies move the way they do.

Pfew. As if anybody really understood.

Regards