At last lots of interesting things in this market, and some fascinating posts here lately.

I was majorly bearish the C$ on here since when I first joined the forum last December. We knew the C$ was severely over-valued at 1.06+ , and it's still over-valued on a PPP basis.

But I am very skeptical of the US dollar. I think the US financial crisis and the Fed are getting only a reprieve before the crisis worsens. That reprieve is brought on by a massive and overdue correction in oil and commodity prices. Falling oil has bailed out Bernanke, at least temporarily. But we knew oil and gas would plunge as the Saudis primed the pump to do what they can to help elect a hawkish McCain. Saudi production at its current level is unsustainable. More significantly, China Inc was shutdown for the summer by the Chinese government to put its best face forward on air quality for the Olympics.

Sometime this fall, Saudi production will fall substantially. China Inc will ramp up industrial production again and begin absorbing resources at unprecedented levels as the world's leading manufacturer tries to cope with the enormous pent-up demand caused by China's manufacturing moratorium on everything from simple toys to sophisticated computers. The combination of Saudi oil production cuts and the resumption of Chinese industrial production will support and strengthen commodity prices again.

Commodity markets are characterized by extremely long cyclyes and very sharp, steep corrections. This is the long overdue commodity correction, and with it we see a mirage of US dollar strength. Fundamentally though, the US economy faces enormous challenges and commodities remain in a secular bull market. This might bring your last chance ever to buy gold at $700 and oil at $80 before they soar to new highs again.