The long term equilibrium point for AUDNZD is about 1.11. Presently it is at 1.08; Further, AUD economy is fundamentally much stronger than NZD. RBA has declared that its rate cut does NOT form a pattern. RBNZ has declared that more rate cuts are forthcoming. Therefore AUDNZD MUST rally upwards significantly and perhaps beyond 1.25 again. The present fall of AUD seems correlated to commodity prices (other than Gold). Its weakness is very similar to CAD (both commodity currencies). This correlation won't continue for ever. Commodities like Silver has seen a spectacular fall ($19 to $10) in a few weeks. Aluminum and Copper also have fallen big time. They will stabilize soon. When Gold recovers and starts going towards $1000, it will pull up other commodities. Therefore, I wouldn't worry much about further commodity price fall affecting AUD.

The recovery of JPY above 100 has shown that risk aversion is nearing an end. Once carry trade begins, AUDJPY will rally and with it AUD will go up. Thus, so many different arguments point to AUD recovery and rally.