Quote:
Originally Posted by bertmaple
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okay- a few things ive learned through the years of fxing -
go with the trend & dont try and guess when the trend is over
BUT.......
did anyone else see the USD turnaround signs? Not really a strong one with GBP - but a perfect trendline touch on EUR, almost a double top reaction spike on CHF.
All pairs showed serious rection spikes today - without surpassing former lows/highs
Kind of like slamming the brakes on your car.
Wonder if Mon Asian market will dump lots of cash in - or wait because of light US trade week?
Will the slow trade week basically reset all the indicators and make this one giant bull/bear trap?
Set yr stops close ~
Thoughts?
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Well I didn't catch this post until today, but it seems like you had quite the prescient observation here. Across the board we see the US Dollar and Japanese Yen substantially off of their trend highs. I personally believe that currencies will remain volatile on a short-term basis but remain within longer-term ranges. This is something I write about here:
Currency Trading Market Conditions Difficult to Forecast: Look for Good Range Trading Strategies
My reasons are many, but in a nutshell I believe that markets can only move as strongly as they have for so long. To see that the EURUSD trended from 1.60 to 1.2300 in such a short amount of time tells you that a good deal of consolidation may be necessary before further big moves.
The fact that interest rate differentials are compressing will only diminish trend strength, and I feel that overall market conditions suggest we're not going to break recent range highs or lows any time soon. Of course, a 1.34-1.23 range is still plenty big.
