I've gone short in anticipation of a break lower on the third attempt at 91. This looks like a big descending triangle to me now. I will be using a fairly wide hedge at 95, which is where the descending trendline comes in. USDJPY is not responding to the equities rally and also the SSI data from FXCM suggest another sizable stop out of longs is coming. I usually wait for the break to happen, but it is looking likely to me at this point. At the least, 91 will be tested and I can exit at a profit on a convincing bounce.

Looking at the 4-hr chart, the rally we had the last couple days has failed and the floor that the second leg up had launched from has given up overnight and become resistance. The oscillators have room to run. The 20-hr EMA continues to cap off rally attempts.

EDIT: I decided to go with a trailing stop at 100 pip risk. I don't like stops (they were made to be hit), but the reversal risk is too great to sit on an underwater short. I'm targeting the 1.382 extension fib measured from the 90.95 bounce to 100.50, which comes it around 87.50.

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