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Old 01-20-2009, 01:14 PM
Joel Kruger Joel Kruger is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
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Joel Kruger
Euro Looking to Test Key 78.6% Fib Retrace

Hi All,

Looks the Euro about to test a key fib support....if it can't hold 1.2850 then we should see a return to the multi-year lows......Happy trading!!!

Euro/Dollar – The market continues to extend declines off of 1.4720 (18Dec high) making a series of lower tops and lower lows, to just under 1.2900 thus far today. Today’s break below 1.3025 (15Jan low) confirms a fresh lower top now in place by 1.3390 (19Jan high) and opens a test of next key support by 1.2850 which represents the 78.6% fib retracement off of the major 1.2330-1.4720 move. While a full retracement back to and below 1.2330 (28Oct Trend Low) is likely, the 78.6% fib retracement is often the final level to be tested before officially calling for a 100% retracement. As such, look for the latter level to initially buoy additional setbacks with the possibility for a short-term bounce from there. We will use this bounce as an opportunity to sell for a retest of the critical trend lows. Recommendation: SELL @ 1.3100 FOR A 1.2335 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.3410.



Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199 View Post
Now that the EURJPY Monthly chart has completely negated the Bullish engulfing signal left on the chart last month my bias has changed towards more downside momentum and a target below 88.87, which lines up much better with what I'm seeing in all the other YEN crosses now.. That bullish engulfing candle signal last month was a tricky one especially since it occoured at 61.8 support... In the near term I am looking for a bottom to form around current levels and one more rally back up to the 1.2500 - 1.300 range to complete wave "E" of a larger "B" wave triangle.. It looks like this is only going to be a correction and we should still be expecting new multi-year lows... Apparently the YEN is about to smoke the entire world !! I see a lot of currencies will be highly under valued in comparison to the YEN very soon... I'm glad this pair has cleared up a bit.. That Bullish Engulfing candle last month was tricky, but I'm pretty sure i know what's going on here now... Wave "E" will be confirmed underway shortly...
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