Quote:
Originally Posted by New Investor
I can't quite understand the bullishness. USD/JPY peaks occurred in summer 2007 and summer 2008 - banking crisis peaks. Do we really think the banking crisis is over? Today BAC and IBM beat eps expectations then Oracle and Pepsico (could be vertical re-integration) are out shopping - potentially bullish news for the SM, which being mood driven decides to give in. A weekend web report dubiously leaking the results of stress tests painting a grim picture was perhaps behind the turnaround. USD/JPY follows suit. Is the investment community becoming a little tense about stress tests, which are due to be published the same week as another 600,000+ start looking for jobs? Surely we are now just resuming the long-term USD/JPY down trend. We didn't quite make 103, 101 was a reasonable enough bear rally.
|
You may be right about 101.50 be a top for a while, however, don't forget about Japanese money trying to escape what they know to be a domestic investment climate that will not improve until things improve in the US. USDJPY is not just about what US money thinks.
I don't think the banking crisis is over. That won't stop USDJPY from topping out later this year. I sat and watched USDJPY break 103, 105, 108 all through 2008 in disbelief. It is more than just the US markets.
