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Old 07-02-2009, 06:40 PM
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cmellon cmellon is offline
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Here's what I think is the possibility for the dreaded USD JPY. I posted a similar chart in USD JPY forum yesterday before NFP, but here I will do something different.

Attached is Delta - MTD chart for USD YEN.

First take a look at MTD 6 high (I circle them in the chart). They are all due in the middle between green and vertical red line. So I am comfortable with the current cycle's MTD 6 high position at 98.9 by comparing it to previous cycles.

Secondly, notice that MTD 6 (98.9) is lower than MTD 4 (101.4). I put rectange on the chart for MTD 4 high. This is a series of lower high. By Delta logic, this must mean that LTD (a higher TF than MTD) is travelling down. When LTD is travelling down, we will get a series of lower high and lower low in MTD time frame.

On the chart, If we take 87.1 (the low of the year) as MTD 1 low and LTD 1 low, MTD 4 high (101.4) must be LTD 2 high because of the reason I explained above that MTD 6 is lower than MTD 4.

The implication is that we should travel to MTD 7 low and MTD 7 low will be lower than MTD 5 low (lower than 94) because LTD is travelling down. MTD 7 could be due this month.

The only time USD JPY turns bullish is IF LTD 3 low was already DUE at MTD 5 low (due at 94), but looking at the structure, IMO this is not likely.

Last edited by cmellon; 12-16-2009 at 08:30 PM..
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