Quote:
Originally Posted by adam6655nyc
BE VERY careful, the reverse today was a key to the upside trend, watch the Euro PAIRS, all reversed, making higher lows from the fall before, and now all it needs to make is higher high (we printed 1.37 vs jpy....and 1.42 last time) do not be surprised if we take the 1.43 next swing up....any positive comment in the G8 statement regarding the world economy and the euro ...gbp and aud will shoot up in one candle....forcing many shorts to cover then come down again, range trading is the prefer method in July.
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There is less volatility on positive equity days, and that signals that long-dollar positions are near-term hedges, rather than long-term plays. The fact that a currency cannot make a break on the dollar that holds unless equity markets are trading in the green reveals a fear of loss syndrome at the moment.
Making a clean break has been hard for the market to do for six weeks now, as we can see from the channeling 4 hour charts. The target areas cannot be too far away; global equity trade is finding it hard to hold intra-day direction from one region to another, allowing the bigger reversals from tests of support and resistance to take place.
Making use of momentum at 20:00 EDT, 02:00 EDT, and 07:00 EDT is key to getting a clean break, and subsequent price action. The key to an improved forex order flow of momentum and volume to smooth out the heavy reversals will come with a market that starts to buy equities. Until then, the battle each day to buy dollars and Treasuries as an equity hedge will take place.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision is posted at 00:30 EDT, and the effect on the aussie will ripple through the other major pairs at that time.
