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I come back from vacation and nothing has changed with this pair. The head-and-shoulders formation that has offered a potential pattern to play off of has waxed and waned for nearly a month now. You could argue it can still play out from here; but I'm more concerned with the follow through that would be possible.
So far, there has been a pull back in all things risk related; but the retracement has been slow and shallow. In the meantime, we have wasted many good technical triggers that could have developed volatility or catalyzed new trends. I just think investor sentiment is generally balanced and we won't see any major shifts until a big fundamental wind picks up (a double bottom recession, ECB talks about rate hikes, Eastern Europe defaults or devalues, US credit rating is downgraded, etc).
Right now, shortening my trading time frame and pulling my targets in closer.
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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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