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Old 10-06-2009, 05:18 AM
Alec Alec is offline
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Identifying factors in decision making or The mystic post

Hi Jeremy

I'd say you used some of those recent systems, like the "bio-chemicals" - oxidative, secretory, etc - which are able to make spectacular profits.

And this I'm saying, because I've used them myself, if even for a few hours. The nerves of having so many positions open at the same time and the potential for killer drawdowns...

I used them recently to try to mitigate the drawdown of a more reliable system, with success.

I selected a 'biochem', activated it, and let it trade until it would start closing the (10 or so) positions; I would then deactivate it, letting it manage the remaining open positions but preventing it from opening more.

That gave me a fairly nice profit. Positions closed - bye-bye.

Now, to answer your question, no. I wouldn't invest in that portfolio, not for 3 months, not for one month. Besides, you haven't told us which was the result of your 1 month demo trading.

However, it's tempting. You see all those systems making thousands of pips in days, if not hours. Your system(s) are struggling to make a few pips profit, or trying to recover from drawdowns... You feel you need some of that.

The recent couple of times I used systems like those, I did it based on a feeling, an intuitive action. We were just past the third week of the month and my filter was, basicly... Well: huge profits, virtually no drawdowns, and a reasonable number of trades. For THAT 1 month.

It worked. The other time, on the previous month, had worked even better. The 'feeling' (intuition, whatever, the 'Force' - LOL) was stronger. The previous time I was more certain it would work.

But I need to know the why. If there is one. To be able to repeat a good result, one has to know what weighted on the 'good' decision. Why, a couple of months ago, I was so certain I had a good chance of winning with that strategy? Was it just luck?!

I'm fairly certain there were objective factors weighting on my degree of certainty.

What sense can you make of this (if any)?

A good day to you, James, and to all the other participants of this Forum. Thank you
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