Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

Hi All,

Long time trader first time poster. Good day to be long Eur/Aud. I think it it will get up to 1.4850-90 then the carry will kick in again. Then we'll see the Aud break the .8880 barrier that has caused much resistance. This will see the Eur/USD settle around 1.2950 region.
Snowing where I am so I have to go and enjoy it!

EUR/CAD Inverted Head and Shoulders - A break above 13500 would be confirmation that this pair could go higher. I have a possible price projection of 14258

Originally Posted by Mostly Harmless

Hey there Andrek ol mate.

On your key point, I do not believe for a moment that AUD is tradeable (ie, profitable) by reference to support / resistance lines (or, trend lines or whatever sort of lines).

Where are the proper studies to support the concept that chart theory is profitable? I'd be the first to jump on board if the studies existed. Why do some 99% of all currency traders go bust if the charts work - surely there must be disciplined chartists / money managers among that 99%?

Those are the sorts of questions I ask myself in trying to work out my approach to beat this damned stacked-against-us system.

"Figures often beguile me," Twain wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'

In my view, historical chart data is mere statistics which, as Twain said, we can manipulate to lie to ourselves. Like, I could find the right time-line / period chart to prove to myself that aussie is on track to reach parity with USD. Conversely, I could take another chart period to convince myself that she is headed down to another .50 hell hole.

Banks and Hedge Funds account for about 70% of trading. The big ones spend around a half-billion each per year (that's not a number I dragged out of thin air) on computerised trading systems.

Their computers:

1. Are not programmed to respect lines on charts like we do;

2. Are programmed to treat the market as one - AUD and dow and the hundreds of other financial instruments;

3. Save, those computers somehow know how to gobble up us mice - far too often to be chance, I see dow go in one direction knowing AUD must follow, yet inexplicably AUD moves the opposite way for a moment to snatch nearby traders before reversing to follow dow. When you've seen this the thousands of times I've seen it (with DOW / AUD tickers side-by-side) you know it is so predictable and repetitious that it is auto-computer programs at work;

4. And, save that humans intervene in those auto-programs upon events like Australia / China news which then changes the underlying price differential between AUD and its traded counterparts but without affecting other auto-computer programmes.

Because the really big global and USA news is immediately reflected in dow cfds (and dow futures), the computer programs merely tie dow to AUD to factor that news into AUD price - neither dow nor those programmes have any respect for s/r etc lines in AUD charts.

But hey, as we both said, those chart lines are of great value to help traders work within a disciplined way of doing things which at the end of the day is the best of all assets.

Oh! Your other point - AUDUSD move further apart and closer to each other (the underlying price differential) on the back of Australia / China news - something entirely separate to the DOW / AUD correlation.
.

.

Hello MH, you made yourself understood here, you're system works great, now that i've seen those charts. 30 pips here + 30 pips there...
You've discovered a gold mine!

I'd be glad to apply this strategy in my trading, but i'm working on my own strategy this summer, so far its doing good, but had a bumpy week because i jumped into a couple of trades. 30% of my balance down yesterday, now 10% up, i'm glad i recovered and took profits in the end. I've got to remind myself to be disciplined if i'm going to get somewhere. Hard though as i could be on the sidelines for a couple of days until the right opportunities arrive.

As for the lines and stuff, i'm still sticking to them, as my strategy is based on reverses on lines and key levels. I'm a very stubborn guy if you get to know me.

Regarding those spikes you mentioned btw, i thought those were a part of many selling/buying orders getting filled, thus price spikes and then goes a direction. Now i don't know what to think, in any way, i keep my stops wide, don't mind of the losses, there is always an opportunity to jump back in the trade.


I'm from Cyprus, Europe btw.
Congrats for the big gains this week.
Cheers

Originally Posted by shop

Hi All,

Long time trader first time poster. Good day to be long Eur/Aud. I think it it will get up to 1.4850-90 then the carry will kick in again. Then we'll see the Aud break the .8880 barrier that has caused much resistance. This will see the Eur/Aud settle around 1.2950 region.
Snowing where I am so I have to go and enjoy it!

Hello shop and welcome,

1.485 is what i was hoping for as well. It would be great if we get there.

Good luck.

Originally Posted by freshboizz

We'll miss u Sean. Where do we get to see your excellent charts and analysis again? I have really enjoyed your method of trading and I always look forward to seeing your analysis everyday. I really hope u change your mind.

Yes he brings insight and integrity with a touch of wit too. Best wishes with whatever, wherever.

Also welcome aboard Greg.
On second thought, not really...
I mean, you've already been around here before. Haha

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Also welcome aboard Greg.
On second thought, not really...
I mean, you've already been around here before. Haha

Thanks SkiBunny! LOL

Bullish Oscillators Pointing to Higher EUR/AUD - At least the top of the triangle. I believe we could get a break above that line but we will have to see about that over time.

Hello everyone. What does the magic ball predict - CAD strengthening aginst USD in the next while?

Originally Posted by Mostly Harmless

Dow cfds zipping up into positive territory ... AUDJPY now at 77.70 will follow soon if dow holds positive

Edit. Gotcha! AUDJPY just poked its nose above 78.0 bagging 30 pips. That's 11 wins out of 12 bets this week.

Gees ... as I write USA data hit the wires slamming dow down 30 points ... yanking AUDJPY back to 77.6

What's the ticker symbol for the Dow index?

... Down after an early High Friday ... US Open.

Mostly Harmless, I would like to thank you for spending so much time writing in this forum and sharing your strategy and experience with us.

I also would like to thank others for their input. I have learnt a lot from this forum.

congrats to mostly harmless for getting 11 trades out of 12. Your Beer money this week is way more than my salary at my previous job. lol. that is A LOT of beer. You need someone to help you drink it?

As long as I can remember...for the first time, why is USDCAD up while the oil prices are high.
Can someone explain to me why CAD is losing while the USD is HIGH and OIL is doing well too..

Thanks,
Jey

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

EUR/CAD Inverted Head and Shoulders - A break above 13500 would be confirmation that this pair could go higher. I have a possible price projection of 14258

EUR/CAD is currently trading at 1.3608 breaking above the neckline and following the earlier EUR/USD breakout.

Originally Posted by licensed2trade

As long as I can remember...for the first time, why is USDCAD up while the oil prices are high.
Can someone explain to me why CAD is losing while the USD is HIGH and OIL is doing well too..

Thanks,
Jey

Oill prices are down today so is the market