Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

I'm a regular trader of this particular pair, one of the reasons is that since I'm using an Australian broker, I'm able to trade this pair with a spread of just 1 pip.

I did trade AUDNZD during last week or so and I agree with you that its been quite stressful and I made an early exit yesterday.

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I don't know if anyone else has been watching it; but AUDNZD has been a source of frustration for me. Originally, I was trading the long-term ascending wedge pattern with some degree of success. However, last week, the pair's activity level collapsed and it fell into a tight range just above the long-term rising trendline that I had been watching for my ascending wedge. I have only taken one of the many swings we have seen from this pair; but the probability of a break is keeping me from repeated trades.

Anyone else taken trading this pair?

I still think this pair will eventually break 1.30 some buying coming in just below 1.2340 I use this pair to look for relative aussie strength vs NZD, spread too big for me to make it worthwhile trading . I cannot see any reason for NZ strength but overall except for month of APRIL has benefitted more from equity rally despite lower yield ..

Hi John,

I was wondering whats your latest view on AUDJPY ...

Cheers,

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

It does look like AUDJPY has cleared that channel and support is far less concerning now.

I'm more interested in AUDCHF as a potential short though. Where the yen cross will have to develop its own momentum, the franc-backed pair is on the edge of significant support. If we get a break here Monday morning (I wouldn't be as interested if it took place before the weekend); it could develop more quickly and have further to run.

Originally Posted by asherewt

I'm a regular trader of this particular pair, one of the reasons is that since I'm using an Australian broker, I'm able to trade this pair with a spread of just 1 pip.

I did trade AUDNZD during last week or so and I agree with you that its been quite stressful and I made an early exit yesterday.

In hindsight this pair has actually helped me out. The few swings I rode have actually offset the losses I'm sitting on in AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

I wouldn't say we have confirmed a full on risk-atuned breakout; but we are very close. I'm learning my lesson for having an unbalanced load of risk exposure (also trading EURUSD and GBPAUD).

Originally Posted by asherewt

Hi John,

I was wondering whats your latest view on AUDJPY ...

Cheers,

Well that push above recent congestion and 50-day SMA around 75.85 seems to have recharged the bullish trend. There are still a number of congestive points that need to be overrun before I would say it's a full-blown bull trend. Keeping an eye on 76.85/78.35/80.45.

Looks like it could clear the cloud with 76.85 too.

Hello John

If DOW keeps climbing this week, AUDUSD should of course hit June highs.

But will RBA again intervene, as it did in June, to hold AUD at those highs?

I think so. Therefore there might be a bit of up-steam left but I'm mainly looking to short around June high levels.

Your take on RBA?

As many brokerage accounts were opened in China in the last month as were opened in the prior 18 months. China companies have stockpiled commodities, now I read this.

Article - WSJ.com

If they are stuffed to the gills in commodities than it might be a good time to buy IP through takeovers of foreign companies. Maybe they see commodities as overvalued at the moment. I don't see China as a bubble, because I hear so many people in the press calling it a bubble. I do think it could be vulnerable to correction though and with it the commodity currencies.

The U.S. stock indexes are hitting new highs, yet the EURJPY is not. The AUDJPY is not. And the shipping stocks are lagging this rally. I see oil and commodities correcting here. Does anyone else?

Are there any opinions on the mid-term forecast for the echange rate of the USD converting to AUD for the month of November 09'

Australian Dollar to U.S. Dollar Currency Exchange Rate Forecast
This website predicts a long term climb

Originally Posted by asherewt

I'm a regular trader of this particular pair, one of the reasons is that since I'm using an Australian broker, I'm able to trade this pair with a spread of just 1 pip.

I did trade AUDNZD during last week or so and I agree with you that its been quite stressful and I made an early exit yesterday.

Hi I have traded this pair through a standard a/c and the spreads have been too wide to allow me to hang with the positions so most of my trades have been at break even (I now have a micro account and it is great with the spreads and smaller lots to allow for reduced risk in these times of excessive volatility).

I am a kiwi and I am bearish the NZ economy (the current a/c and unemployment is only going to get worse and then other credit rating agencies will put us on negative watch) but this may play out over the longer term rather than the near term.

With this in mind, I would like to be long AUD short kiwi but the chart action has me wanting to wait for a retracement to the 38% fibo (1.09-1.293) approx 1.215 (maybe wishful thinking).

Also I know the majority are expecting nothing from the RBNZ at the next ORC but if the RB is to get bang for its buck and try to stave of excess currency speculative appreciation then a 50pt cut would certainly catch the market and could see a retracement back to fair value at 0.6000 (good oppertunity to get long NZD/USD). So I may set a position (short NZD/USD) leading into the ORC for the off chance the cut unexpectedly but would close it if the ORC remained unchanged.

Any thoughts?

I believe that the AUD/USD will see bearish in short due to correction and also the question of how good are the earnings going to sustain. I'm holding USD now while waiting for AUD to weaken in short term.

Any thoughts?

Originally Posted by Mostly Harmless

Hello John

If DOW keeps climbing this week, AUDUSD should of course hit June highs.

But will RBA again intervene, as it did in June, to hold AUD at those highs?

I think so. Therefore there might be a bit of up-steam left but I'm mainly looking to short around June high levels.

Your take on RBA?

I think appetite for yield will be the bigger driver for this pair should it indeed see a strong advance or decline (which is what I'm focused on right now).

The RBA's activities in the FX market last month are standard reserve operations - not intervention. Also, A$1.94 billion spread out over a month won't likely have a significant impact on price action when there is a lot of volatility (as that translates into lots of liquidity and these funds are more easily absorbed without having a major impact on price action).

Originally Posted by Genevieve

I believe that the AUD/USD will see bearish in short due to correction and also the question of how good are the earnings going to sustain. I'm holding USD now while waiting for AUD to weaken in short term.

Any thoughts?

That is a risky position to take right now. It is probably safer to wait for a positive sign of direction on the dollar and risk sensitive pairs; but that depends on your outlook and taste for risk.

I'm long AUDCAD (which has quickly turned from a modest gain to modest loss after the at BoC report) and have orders set for a possible AUDUSD Break above 0.8265. Lot's of risk and the market can go either way - and it seems determined to push higher (bullish risk appetite).

You have any offsetting positions? Like pending orders for a NZDUSD bullish breakout or something along those lines?

AUDUSD just broke correlation with Dow!
Dow just closed 188 up - for year high of 9,069.
On usual behaviour, that should have pushed AUD to about .82500.
But AUD dropped to .81081 (from session high of .8227).
So, maybe yield appetite is now the bigger driver (as you said John).

I also had set a buy order at .81650 which auto closed at .82084.
But, I bought back in again at .81650 just as Dow closed on above high - only to watch a half cent drop in minutes!

Absent news, that sure is the most curious movement I've seen for many months. But, I'll stay long only during today's Asian session.

Thanks John for setting me straight re RBA.

oh!!

Caught the news too late, AUD dramatic drop was just market over-shooting on Microsoft loss.

Yeah, Microsoft, Amex and Credit One all disappointed. There are a smattering of blue chips due over the next few weeks; but it looks like the bulk of earnings has already passed. Unless something else fills in for this driver, we could lose the momentum in risk appetite. But, does that mean reversals, long-term congestion, or speculators forcing their own breakouts.

What do you guys think?