Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

Well, playing out as we expected. Todays objective is 1.0015. I would short any bounces into the 1.0060-80 range - Stops above yesterdays high volume area of 1.0125. The 1.0060 to 80 area was a solid zone for several attempts before we pushed through. I would expect it to hold as resistance.

Good luck you Loonies
CADMan

Originally Posted by Mostly Harmless

Way it's going, a buck won't be worth a dime anymore unless American business gets off its butt and starts exporting.

Yeah and I think its more than that. The old timers who lived through the 1930's depression tell you that dollars were perceived like gold, there was a trust in the symbol. Unfortunately the US has huge debt issues now, their political system is rubbish (have you heard Pelosi speak? - makes Pauline Hanson look smart !)

Have you heard from Tigger? Last I heard he dropped $50 Mill on GBP/AUD at 1.63 long (never see that price again apparently).

AUD/JPY 4-Hour Breakout. Aussie yen could tag the 83.00 area.

Having tested the STRONG Daily Trendline and failed AGAIN to breach it.. and forming a strong Bearish Inverted Hammer... I see this pair going nowhere but DOWN...

I placed a short position right after I saw this.. with stops above the top of that candle as shown and Limit just short of the yearly low just in case thats a Truncated 5

Good Luck

USD/CAD Possible Sell Zones

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Do you think perhaps this is a case of him trying to "talk down" the CA dollar or slow its ascent? Interesting that Mr Carney is being self-critical because I was under the impression he was hoping for the World Bank job. Many believe it was good the BoC raised rates a little, so that it now has a bit of room to maneuver and lower them if desired, unlike the Fed and BoJ.

I don't think I was completely clear.
It was Carney's year long promise of rate change before the summer that is in question within the media. While the BoC has others doing the back track dance these past few days.
At this point most economists are betting that the BoC will not raise rates next week on the 19th. And if the CAD moves just as fast in the next days as it did over the last 5 days. You'll surely see the BoC on the hot seat next Tues.

USDCAD has fallen below parity in Hong Kong trading.

This pair is headed to 1.10, but will that be 1.10 in terms of CAD/USD, or does anyone still believe in 1.10 in terms of USD/CAD?

Slowly but surely the world continues to dump USD ... Yen and Euro still trending up ... AUD and CAD just a few pips away from parity right now ... reasonable prospects that such will happen during today's NY session or if not today then pretty soon ... watch Australian farmers squeal on national TV once AUDUSD parity hits and holds. Same will happen in other food export countries as pretty near all currencies, including those of most developing economies, are rising against the buck ... problem is that most exports are priced in USD so farmers get paid less of their local currency.

Looks like Ben gets what he planned ... USD devaluation to assist American exporters (which I reckon is a damn good thing as we need a strong USA in this dangerous world). Only Ben can stop the slide by stating the Fed ain't too serious about future QE ... or his continuing silence will signal more of the same devaluation to come, so if Ben keeps his mouth shut this little currency party ain't hardly started yet!

One would either be nutz or have an ulterior motive to buy USA T-Notes right now ... hell ... repayment in monopoly QE bucks and not via real money from tax on good American citizens.

Right now, central bankers around the world must be huddled around their tables tearing their hair out but there is nix they can really do ... only China has enough foreign reserves to move currency markets in a meaningful way and it sure won't be seen at home to yield to Western pressures to appreciate its yuan as its State controlled media has invested the past year in whipping up anti-American emotions saying USA is jealous and wants to stop China's growth by appreciation of its yuan ... even my own extended Chinese family unfairly thinks USA is the bad guy now!

Meanwhile, importers around the world including my company are having field day stocking up on ever and ever cheaper Chinese junk by virtue of devalued USD (near all foreign contracts with Chinese factories are priced in USD).

But just this morning, my Chinese factory mates tell me they are getting worried about USD because their raw imported inputs which they too pay for in USD are now getting too expensive (about 50% of China's export value is import inputs).

They tell me they would prefer to be paid in yuan (or RMB as they call it). Like other importers around the globe, my company would also prefer to pay in yuan ... but hey ... damn Chinese government has in the past stopped yuan from becoming an international currency (by preventing most central banks from buying yuan).

What next?

China is in one hell of a pickle ... because of its continuing trade surplus, its central bank is forced to buy near all of the incoming USD and convert it to yuan for the locals ... increasing the domestic money supply with attendant inflationary risks.

If there is one thing Beijing fears more than mobs in the streets without export orientated jobs, it's all its citizens howling they can't afford food through inflation.

So, the Chinese are acting pretty fast right now to internationalise the yuan and I reckon that's a darn good thing as, for me at least, it saves the cost of useless double transaction costs ... converting our AUD to USD and then back to yuan on the Chinese end ... instead of being able to buy the damn yuan here in Oz and transfer it direct to China.

But internationalisation of the yuan is further bad news for USD (or good news if you are an American exporter) ... central banks around the world will have to sell off mountains of USD to get their grubby hands on yuan ... so that signals volatile depreciating USD for the next 5 years or so that it takes to get yuan properly internationalised ... getting a few trillion yuan out of China relieves home inflationary pressure and its internationalisation naturally appreciates it.

Hey Mary ... that's the reason I reckon EU and USA will win this present day currency "war" to get the Chinese to appreciate yuan ... not from any pressure they put on China but from China's own internal needs to internationalise the yuan to keep domestic inflation under control.

Hey remember those who said CAD would not reach PAR again? The trend is my friend

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

USDCAD has fallen below parity in Hong Kong trading.

This pair is headed to 1.10, but will that be 1.10 in terms of CAD/USD, or does anyone still believe in 1.10 in terms of USD/CAD?

Originally Posted by kingpin

Hey remember those who said CAD would not reach PAR again? The trend is my friend

Yep I was wondering whether AUD might get there first. Apparently AUDUSD was last at parity in 1982. Wasn't that back when the main Aussie export was AC/DC? lol

^ After CAD and USD, next up for parity with USD?... Take a look at the long chart for SGD. Singapore fundamentals are outstanding too. On a per capita basis, it's also become wealthier and more productive (GDP per capita) than US, CA, AU.

Mr Bernanke, notice how the nations that are raising rates (and attracting investment capital) are also the ones who are doing all the better for it. Your liquidity-driven-growth theory is a failure in practice. Enough, already!

Originally Posted by straty01

Yeah and I think its more than that. The old timers who lived through the 1930's depression tell you that dollars were perceived like gold, there was a trust in the symbol. Unfortunately the US has huge debt issues now, their political system is rubbish (have you heard Pelosi speak? - makes Pauline Hanson look smart !)

Have you heard from Tigger? Last I heard he dropped $50 Mill on GBP/AUD at 1.63 long (never see that price again apparently).

I agree with you about both parts...

Economists are no longer favoring the dollar for the time being at least.. increasing rumors about vanishing the Fed...

About Tigger; What really annoys me is his ASSERTIVE calls for certain positions... Lots of new traders, just feel safer to follow anyone who is more experienced, so they blindly do... he says Long the GBP/AUD now ... they all hail to the king and just follow!!!

Now talk to me about casualties of such

I hope we all give advices to each other but in a fashion that doesn't wipe anyone off!!! That would be wiser...,

When I have a position ON.. I say about it AFTER I take it to avoid having anyone just blindly following me!!!

Good Luck to all

Easy Al and Helicopter Ben should be congratulated for their efforts. There are so many structural problems that are not being dealt until they become a full blown crisis, by then it is too late and much much worse than it should have been.

As for Tugger, ooops I mean Tigger, he is a funny person and should be received as such. All newbies succumb to following someone other than themselves. At least you are not paying for the service, I would imagine that Bob Prechter has hurt his Elliot Wave business dearly with his bearish gold and bullish US dollar call over the last 2 years

Internationalization of the yuan seems unlikely at this point because nobody really trusts the Chinese. China is even less trustworthy than the US. And every other country in the world is terrified of the Chinese becoming a leading military and political force even though it seems inevitable.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

^ After CAD and USD, next up for parity with USD?... Take a look at the long chart for SGD. Singapore fundamentals are outstanding too. On a per capita basis, it's also become wealthier and more productive (GDP per capita) than US, CA, AU.

Mr Bernanke, notice how the nations that are raising rates (and attracting investment capital) are also the ones who are doing all the better for it. Your liquidity-driven-growth theory is a failure in practice. Enough, already!

it will be interesting to see if the BoC continues to raise rates next week. The Canadian inflation report was benign, and Mr. Carney has implied that the Candians are hurting from the stronger CAD. If they chose not to raise rates there will likely be a big oversold pop. Whats your take on their decision to raise/not raise?