Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

Economists are predicting another rate hike from the Chinese central bank possibly before their Feb 3 holiday. The last hike was Dec 27. A PBOC rate hike and a dovish RBA could lead to major downside momentum for AUD

technically speaking, i see it going down. would open a few lots when it breaks the trend line just under .9900 my first profit target would be .9250 area or there about. stop-loss 100 pips above open at 1.0000.

^
Are you buying?

I hear there is demand for CAD bonds but 10 years at 3.5% seems advantageous to the borrower in view of the monetary inflation around the globe. In CAD that's a real annual ROR of 1.1% currently and falling each month.

But I guess it's attractive if you believe in the deflation argument like Gary Shilling. In any event, possibly better than the 10 year US treasury at 3.3%. Where will USDCAD be in ten years?

Market is so bearing about AUD right now... I can smell alot of fear in the market,

Can anyone come up with a single positive news/thought about AUD?

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Thanks SkiBunny! I appreciate the kind words. May you have continued prosperity and health in the Year of the Rabbit!

Thank you! Yes is year of the bunny Rabbit 4708 and my year .. I will be off celebrating new year in Hong Kong style.

Originally Posted by Sahand

About the events in the middle east, I think US is struggling with the very powerful ideological extremists in this region. US changed the regime in Iraq and Afghanistan which they were the enemy and treat for Iran. It caused Iran to get more powerful in the region. Also we see the success of a Prime Minster in Lebanon who supported by Hezbulla which is a branch of Iranian abroad military and ideological group. So Iran as a main interest and problem for US in the Middle East has a dominant situation in Lebanon,Iraq,Syria,Afghanistan and Palestine.

If Hossni Mobarak in Egypt who has very close relation with US failed to calm the country. The Extremists like Ekhvan ol Moslemin who are backed by Iran will take the control of Egypt too. Then I think we will have a very hard situation for United States to advance its targets in the region. Any unrest in the Middle East as the main producer of world oil will increase the prices sharply and cause many difficulties for the west economic in quitting from recession.

But in my view there is very hard way to change the regime in Egypt. And I think the impact of this in the market is exaggerated.

Thank you very much for your insight. In contrast, the popular western media tends to blame food inflation and conclude that the Mobarak regime is quite likely to fall. If incorrect, that would indeed exaggerate the market move and risk aversion, and also help USDCAD like we already saw in its sharp move up Friday.

Originally Posted by TAfool

AUD/USD plan. I have a couple of different counts but the short term points the same way. Per chart ~0.9715 is target area.

Hello Tafool & Voney etal

I am in agreement with your AUD/USD bearish direction. However I suggest that Tafool bring his profit taking limit up 10 points to .9725. Strong support is at .9715. No need to fight strong support for a few points. Go to the Daily time frame and draw a horizontal line at .9715 and scroll backwards and observe that a lot of candles open or closed in that general area. As for Voney your longer term objective of .9630 I am in agreement 100%. Overall brilliant work by you guys. finally the Aud/USD fall is likely to be very swift and sustaining. sub .9500 is on the cards for sure.

Originally Posted by Sahand

Dear Bunny, you know that Central Banks maybe can not resist devaluing of their currency. For example BOE vs Mr. Soros in 1990.
But they are very powerful while they don't like their currency appreciating.
They easily change some digits and add to Money Supply enormously.
I think while the BOC is not interested in CAD appreciating as mentioned in their recent Monetary Policy obviously, So CAD will have a hard way to increase. So it will be a good position for someone like me as a long term trader.

Direct intervention by central banks was futile last year for both Switzerland and Japan. For Canada, BOC intervention would be even more futile because Canada is more of a trading nation, and CAD currency flows dwarf the amount of any potential BOC intervention. I do not see BOC intervening. The BOC has a track record recently of verbalizing its alarm about the rising loonie, while doing almost nothing concrete about it. So all the BOC might do is delay rate hikes until recent strength in CAD/USD is sapped. On the other hand, BOC has an incentive to raise rates to deter a rising consumer credit and housing bubble in Canada. While private debt grew more slowly this month than before, it nevertheless continues growing considerably faster than income. New government regulations and mortgage margin requirements should cool credit growth, and thereby may have reduced the need for the BOC to hike rates to combat excessive credit growth.

A very eventful week in store. Besides the unrest in the middle east, we have China PMI and possible rate hike, then ECB rate decision, US ISM, CAD GDP, and finally jobs reports for both US and CAD Friday afternoon. On the other hand, most of East Asia will become quiet later for the lunar new year.

0.9850 MUST HOLD FOR THE BULL or else falling the cliff

This pair have think ichimoku cloud (top @ 0.9876 and bottom @ 0.9861) supporting it,

Underneath the clound it has 100 SMA at 0.9854


So 0.9850 must break for the bear and if it manage to hold it will be a bounce.

Originally Posted by Mary R

Economists are predicting another rate hike from the Chinese central bank possibly before their Feb 3 holiday. The last hike was Dec 27. A PBOC rate hike and a dovish RBA could lead to major downside momentum for AUD

Um the chinese official has a record of being unpreditable.

they often choose a date when not many people pay much attention to them...

I couldnt resist 42 pips..................looking to reshort at gap close 9940-9960

[QUOTE=Mozart;723728]look's like rush'd in a littel bit.

Anyway

Update:
,,a,1v''= 0,9925
,,b,2v''= 0,9947
,,c,3v''= 0,9894 (Edit)
,,4v'' = around 0,9915
,,5v'' = around 0,9861

I'm goona give it a try.

Good Luck

[QUOTE=Mozart;724598]

Originally Posted by Mozart

look's like rush'd in a littel bit.

Anyway

Update:
,,a,1v''= 0,9925
,,b,2v''= 0,9947
,,c,3v''= 0,9894 (Edit)
,,4v'' = around 0,9915
,,5v'' = around 0,9861

I'm goona give it a try.

Good Luck

Speaking of perfect price projection opend righ on C,3V..... LOL

[QUOTE=Mozart;724599]

Originally Posted by Mozart

Speaking of perfect price projection opend righ on C,3V..... LOL

looks like 4v got close too