Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

Hmmm...faild ,,c''??? double bottom????

Hi Mozart,

Do you think it failed and now on its way back up?

Thanks

Originally Posted by Mozart

Hmmm...faild ,,c''??? double bottom????

Originally Posted by TAYTOKS

Hi Mozart,

Do you think it failed and now on its way back up?

Thanks

Could be....wach 1,0150 , resistance is at 1,0470

Stopd out and opend another position short....

The trend is still up, 1.05/1.07 are quite achievable IMHO. However:

Originally Posted by toomanytrades

An alternative scenario, and one I am more comfortable with, is that we are in a corrective EW phase. Price to reverse at the end of wave B, either now at .618 retracement @ 1.0065 or possibly more around 1.0175 at the high of wave 3 for a classic head and shoulders pattern. A powerful wave C could go to the 2.618 retracement at .9070 perhaps? (Not shown)

Attachment 77495

I wrote this last week, it may be panning out with the second shoulder forming. I've just re-drawn the daily chart for this alternative view. My Elliot Wave theory is very much at the beginner level so feedback on where I might be messing up is most welcome.

Still holding long and plan to hold long term now. I will continue to added all the way up. Good Luck all.

Originally Posted by Steph67

This week the bears have obviously kept control and sent a few signals (month end close price, fat finger, new low, etc.). However, since CAD & oil usually correlates quite well, looking at short term oil price behaviour, it looks to me that a correction might be due. My rationale is based on the fact that a few attempts were made in a quite short period of time to break a resistance line (median line). On the other side, we could see that the price is well in its channel, and it's too early to flag a break down. Both my rationale and the median line identified as a resistance line might be wrong

Also, the 50% Fibo retracement (between peak at above $140 & low below $35 is at about $90) and it seems difficult for the market to sustain a break up above. The 90 days SMA as a support (not fully reliable on its own) has false break down.

Although my bias is USDCAD bearish, oil makes me keep an open mind for a small short term ''rallye''. Let me know what you think.

Good Game for the fans, and good luck everyone!

With the price action in USD/CAD very tight for last two weeks I am thinking shorting CAD (distribution) may be getting exhausted.

Originally Posted by Mozart

Could be....wach 1,0150 , resistance is at 1,0470

Stopd out and opend another position short....

I don't think that it has a potential upside in my opinion it has to come down at least to 1,0070 and after that to 1,0015.Is just my opinion....

how long we gonna hold the short position? what is actually triggering the price action copper ???

Originally Posted by Mozart

I don't think that it has a potential upside in my opinion it has to come down at least to 1,0070 and after that to 1,0015.Is just my opinion....

Hi Mozart
Looks like you called this one right...the price action failed to break the .0150 zone despite a few attempts. Keep an eye on USD/JPY should the upward momentum fail on that then we might be back to the .0200 zone.

Regards
KH

Originally Posted by KittyHawk

Hi Mozart
Looks like you called this one right...the price action failed to break the .0150 zone despite a few attempts. Keep an eye on USD/JPY should the upward momentum fail on that then we might be back to the .0200 zone.

Regards
KH

Thank's Kitty

nice analysis steph.

I want to get to anaylze things just like that. On my part id say ST a correction is more than possible......oils correction, unless somehow oversea demands balances the season drop.... but I think that much growth in that amount of time might not be able to do that?

how about one of the more seasoned traders putting some input in on this?

I looked up some old historic price charts of cad, and around feb when we could expect a pull back, cad dropped a few times, and consolidated upward during this time(1980's)

It still seems like there is LT downward momentum left, but taking in mind for this year we can expect greenback weakness n strength for the maple leaf...a drawback in this pair could be possible for a LT entry?

This is one of the first times that im putting in fund. analysis(got to get the charts down also, gunna go look at them now), so maybe some seasoned could let me know how im doing?

thanks!

Look's like NY session is strugeling to break higher..

Originally Posted by Mozart

Look's like NY session is strugeling to break higher..

indeed, but It looks USD starts to tumble, we could get a break of 1.0150 from here towards previous high 1.0200

Originally Posted by piri

indeed, but It looks USD starts to tumble, we could get a break of 1.0150 from here towards previous high 1.0200

Technicaly is just wrong what they trying to do it has no logic.....

Originally Posted by Mozart

Technicaly is just wrong what they trying to do it has no logic.....

Hi Mozart
I thinks this is more a "dealer" driven weak short squeeze... thats just my guess though.