Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Mubarak and Market Regaining Appetite for Risk Push Aussie Higher

I hope for this Greg

I was long Aussie/Euro since thursday @1.3553 (fib 61.8 resist of the previous h&s shoulder decline) -> three bearish candle on weekly suggest further decline, but last friday didn't end as expected , forming double top on 1 hour chart but not an aggressive decline on EUR/AUD

After taking 80 points from short Aussie/Euro the previous day.

Normally this pair will decline as risk appetite grows

what is your view technically of potential Aussie rally next monday? other than stochastics up in your previous post

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

USD/CAD moves down 90 pips in 5 hours.

Mary got her USDCAD volatility, right after we both commented on the lack of it, as often happens in life.

Still expect this thing to go down, like it has been even against the headwinds of weak WTI crude prices. Can you imagine how this pair will drop if/when oil spikes or BoC raises rates while the Fed stands pat and QEases again (QE3 by 2012, you read it here).

Originally Posted by Steph67

Among other things, one sentence that caught my attention is:

"Finally, it is interesting to note that the prices of many commodities that are not actively traded on exchanges or included in commodity indexes have risen by as much as those that are."

Thanks for the links and quote. Seems that we evil commodity investor/speculators are not really so evil

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Mary got her USDCAD volatility, right after we both commented on the lack of it, as often happens in life.

Still expect this thing to go down, like it has been even against the headwinds of weak WTI crude prices. Can you imagine how this pair will drop if/when oil spikes or BoC raises rates while the Fed stands pat and QEases again (QE3 by 2012, you read it here).

Very true. Another item I will keep on my radar screen is the next 2 rounds of negociations (April & July 2011) for the Canada-Euro Union CETA. At this point, I could not assess the impact on USD/CAD (how much is already priced in?), but it appears clear to me to be CAD positive. I will try to find how we could roughly translate this in numbers.

Thanks!

Originally Posted by vonzey

This is what ive got Mo:

WAVE A DOWN
10199-10103=1d
10103-10140=2u
10140-9960=3d
9960-10050=4u (Projection)
10050-9940=5d (Projection)

9940 finishes wave A down and starts wave B up

I'm off to the craps tables, see u sunday. I'm pumped up for next week, focusing on aud/$ only.

Yup Look's good

OHH i see you'r 4v was 1,0050.i tought your short from 1,0005.And you'r 4v is actualy 5V and we have a nouwe count

Originally Posted by Steph67

Another item I will keep on my radar screen is the next 2 rounds of negociations (April & July 2011) for the Canada-Euro Union CETA. At this point, I could not assess the impact on USD/CAD (how much is already priced in?), but it appears clear to me to be CAD positive. I will try to find how we could roughly translate this in numbers.

I was unaware of that. Thanks. Also curious as to what impact that could have on EUR/CAD?

I think looking for patterns in stock charts is like looking at constellations in stellar charts... Requires imagination and not too reliable.

Nevertheless, a head and shoulders may have developed since mid-January in both EUR/USD and USD/CAD:

^
By extrapolation (EUR < USD < CAD), this bodes well for my EUR/CAD short, which has already fallen 390 pips for me from 1.377 to 1.338

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

EURCAD rally to 1.377 presents a reasonable short entry point for EURCAD. Target at least 1.30 with patience

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In addition, other things to include in the journal which I believe are equally important but can be left out for privacy concerns:
-Your current physical health: (have a cold or a headache, sleepy)
-Emotional state - (happy, angry, even tempered)
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-Any other condition relevant to trading

Other benefits include letting people know the quality of your analysis and trading skills. It also shows your record and that you are consistent and serious about your approach as a trader.


You can request a comment from me or other forum member on your trading idea or you may just want to record your trading without comments. It's your journal.
We just ask that you follow the rules of the DailyFX Forum as well as copyright laws.
Best of all, it is FREE for Forum members. Not a member, you can register here
Enjoy YOUR TRADING JOURNAL!

Please see the diagram below for instructions on how to create a new Journal Thread.
In addition, you can see my sample Journal from "EZPIPS" CLICK HERE EZPIPS FOREX TRADING JOURNAL (Sample)

Good Luck with Your Trading!

Regards,

Hello Traders,

Many of the best traders in the world credit their success to having a regular and consistent way of recording and logging their trades. Being able to learn from past mistakes as well as past victories allows an individual trader to grow and improve. Traders can draw on their trading journal as an invaluable resource of lessons learned. Start your Free Trading Journal HERE

An effective journal can include the following:
-Day and Date
-Entry, Limit and Stop Prices
-Currency pair traded
-Number of lots traded
-Fundamental or Economic Announcements for that day
-Trend direction
-Strategy and/or Indicator used
-Time frame of chart used to make decision
-Source of trading Idea
-Charts

In addition, other things to include in the journal which I believe are equally important but can be left out for privacy concerns:
-Your current physical health: (have a cold or a headache, sleepy)
-Emotional state - (happy, angry, even tempered)
-Technology condition - computer on the fritz, internet connection, etc.
-Any other condition relevant to trading

Other benefits include letting people know the quality of your analysis and trading skills. It also shows your record and that you are consistent and serious about your approach as a trader.


You can request a comment from me or other forum member on your trading idea or you may just want to record your trading without comments. It's your journal.
We just ask that you follow the rules of the DailyFX Forum as well as copyright laws.
Best of all, it is FREE for Forum members. Not a member, you can register here
Enjoy YOUR TRADING JOURNAL!

Please see the diagram below for instructions on how to create a new Journal Thread.
In addition, you can see my sample Journal from "EZPIPS" CLICK HERE EZPIPS FOREX TRADING JOURNAL (Sample)

Good Luck with Your Trading!

Regards,

Originally Posted by piri

I hope for this Greg

I was long Aussie/Euro since thursday @1.3553 (fib 61.8 resist of the previous h&s shoulder decline) -> three bearish candle on weekly suggest further decline, but last friday didn't end as expected , forming double top on 1 hour chart but not an aggressive decline on EUR/AUD

After taking 80 points from short Aussie/Euro the previous day.

Normally this pair will decline as risk appetite grows

what is your view technically of potential Aussie rally next monday? other than stochastics up in your previous post

Hello Piri,

As long as pair can stay comfortably above 1.3500 then the Bullish Scenario looks good. Below 1.3500 could open up new lows

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

I think looking for patterns in stock charts is like looking at constellations in stellar charts... Requires imagination and not too reliable.

Nevertheless, a head and shoulders may have developed since mid-January in both EUR/USD and USD/CAD:

Nice analogy comparing chart patterns to constellations. Ancient mariners navigated the globe using them and traders navigate the markets in a similar fashion! You don't mind if I borrow this do you? You come up with remarkably clever things!

Originally Posted by Mozart

Yup Look's good

I was'nt expecting that gap down, I'm still thinking of going short at 10050unless we break 9959 first.

Originally Posted by vonzey

I was'nt expecting that gap down, I'm still thinking of going short at 10050unless we break 9959 first.

Why??
Look's ok too me.
As i said resistance at 1,0029.Finaly target 0,994.

Just my opinion of course.

Edit :we could have an open triangle whit 1v to 5v
1v=gap down.

Originally Posted by Mozart

Yup Look's good

OHH i see you'r 4v was 1,0050.i tought your short from 1,0005.And you'r 4v is actualy 5V and we have a nouwe count

OHH i see you'r 4v was 1,0050.i tought your short from 1,0005.And you'r 4v is actualy 5V and we have a nouwe count[/QUOTE]