Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

Originally Posted by Mozart

Hey Shanon and Sinan if we are lucky and break's 1,0200 we goona have a raly.

Look's like we just grab'd this 3v from his ,,nuts''

No 1.02 for you! Is there a possibility? Sure but I think the only reason its holding at these levels is because people are less likely to buy the USD with the current EURUSD ECB rate decision ( eurousd makes up 60% of the Dollar Index, so once those comments come out it will it will REALLY affect the status of all the USD majors. I expect it drop tonight, and rise once more up until that news, then sell off, rise, then sell off come Nonfarm Payroll time.


Keep note of the fact that its tried 3 times near that top level there and each time the top is lower then the previous, shes getting weak!

Maybe you guys get lucky with 1.02 at ECB time, doubt it though, My advice is dont be a AUD believer just long it when it looks long and short it when goes does, don't hold long term, your going to get burned. Face it USD is getting stronger all the pairs are failing to take out these tops GBPUSD AUDUSD EURUSD

Hey man ur right on dollar strenth im looking for 3500 pips in usd/cad once it bottoms, in the mean time this pair is heading to 10370 minumum.

Looking into the usdcad at 30 min, here is my view. Also a 5 min view with channel break with an entry point (risky, but still...)

Side notes: Oil Fibonacci between peak at $146 and low at $37 is 61.80% at $103.429 (maybe a temporary top/resistance). Also, SPX500 has breached through a resitance line, and went to re-test it. In addition, the word is spreading in the non specialized papers that it's time to be careful and so on...(can be crap of course). However, this is inline with a delayed reaction to recent events, which I would considered normal for various reasons.

My rationale to go on the risky side for a short period is...oil might face a resistance while SPX500 could slip down. Let's see.

Originally Posted by Mozart

Wel my number's are :
- 3v=1,0281;
- 4V=1,0209;
- 5v=1,0400-1,0450.

And let's hope that 1,0149 hold's as support.

Oh yes!!................................The calm before the storm

I feel like im in Spain for the running of the bulls!

Edit: Here come the big boyz again.......................long live 10149!

Originally Posted by Lagune

No 1.02 for you! Is there a possibility? Sure but I think the only reason its holding at these levels is because people are less likely to buy the USD with the current EURUSD ECB rate decision ( eurousd makes up 60% of the Dollar Index, so once those comments come out it will it will REALLY affect the status of all the USD majors. I expect it drop tonight, and rise once more up until that news, then sell off, rise, then sell off come Nonfarm Payroll time.

Keep note of the fact that its tried 3 times near that top level there and each time the top is lower then the previous, shes getting weak!

Maybe you guys get lucky with 1.02 at ECB time, doubt it though, My advice is dont be a AUD believer just long it when it looks long and short it when goes does, don't hold long term, your going to get burned. Face it USD is getting stronger all the pairs are failing to take out these tops GBPUSD AUDUSD EURUSD

It doesn't matter wich way upp or down it doesn't matter if it tried it 10 times that lavel couse i dont care
If my sistem is teling me to short i short if long then long .As you can see i do not trade with feeling's and i dont think but i do act very fast when i have too act. Not after and not befor it's all part of my sistem.
Im in and im out when the time is right.I dont wait i just calculate the next posible step and that my friend it's called trading.
I dont care about Fundamentals and i dont care if out there ewerybody is short if my sistem say's long then im long or the otherway around.I dont care about market fealing and what the other people are saying.
If you folow'd my trades and chart's then you would nuve that i trade only my sistem and just my sistem even if the best trader's here on FXM are telling me that im wrong , im still goona trade my sistem.Why??you may goona ask yourself the answer is simple ,,Cose my sistem works for me and not the other way around'' like for the most of the people.

Anyway i am just a simple trader who has some confidance in herself.

And there is a diference betvean corrective pullback and a trend change but i think that you already know that.

Good Luck with you'r trading

Edit: and we dont wana get lucky whit 1,0200!!! we want....i want 1,0450!!!!

Originally Posted by lshe00f

I shorted nzd/usd at 75100 and would also like to hear what peoples thoughts are about the correction that has been going on over the last day it bounced off of the 7370 level and has been hovering around the 74300 level around the 38.2 fib trying to decide if i should get out or wait for the next push

Nothing wrong with taking the advice of the Steve Miller Band.............................."Take the money and ruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuunnnnnnnnnnn"

Originally Posted by vonzey

Nothing wrong with taking the advice of the Steve Miller Band.............................."Take the money and ruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuunnnnnnnnnnn"

Hey vonzey the volum on the bear side is lowww so i think that we goona se another raly upp.The question is when?I dont think that the Asian sesion is goona have the voulme to push it higher.So my gues would be the UK session.

Just my tought's....

Edit: A back pull around 1,0120 it is posible and keping itt above it's important to keep bull wiev.

Originally Posted by Mozart

Hey vonzey the volum on the bear side is lowww so i think that we goona se another raly upp.The question is when?I dont think that the Asian sesion is goona have the voulme to push it higher.So my gues would be the UK session.

Just my tought's....

Edit: A back pull around 1,0120 it is posible and keping itt above it's important to keep bull wiev.

Yeah this is like watching paint dry. I hope we hold

EDIT: I can count a clean 5 waves up off 10089 so the bull should get running sooner or later

This is another idea on what my happen:
With green is what already happend and that's out counted
With red is what i think is happening but im not shour yet
Whit white is wat's goona hapen if red is correct

If somebody doase not understand my chart just say so and i would gladly explain it.
Edit: this is the 4 H Chart

Edit: This chart is 3D...lol

Attachment 82511

I know you guys are long but I'm still looking down. As per chart notes, currently short with stop@+3.3 and looking for price to drop out of consolidation. Any move over 1.0203 and I'll admit defeat on this battle plan and look for longs.

Originally Posted by TAfool

I know you guys are long but I'm still looking down. As per chart notes, currently short with stop@+3.3 and looking for price to drop out of consolidation. Any move over 1.0203 and I'll admit defeat on this battle plan and look for longs.

We might go low to 1,0050 befor we go higher...Just some idea...

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Yes the output gap has been covered and nervousness has been contained, but we see WTI trading higher now than before when the situation was more worrisome. So there appears to be more happening than just geopolitical concerns.

It makes sense to me and I agree with the big picture (Asian demand, etc.). No doubt in my mind that at $100, WTI is kind of cheap, all things considered. My concern is more related to the speed at which price went up. Maybe it was under valued for various reasons and the geopolitcal events triggered some wake up call. Maybe also the ''natural'' pace of growth in the price (wrong choice of words to simply say...main trend) got a ''boost'', which would potentially be followed by a fading price, going back down a bit for a short period of time.

Thanks also for the comparison with Korea, I was not aware of that.

Originally Posted by Mozart

This is another idea on what my happen:
With green is what already happend and that's out counted
With red is what i think is happening but im not shour yet
Whit white is wat's goona hapen if red is correct

If somebody doase not understand my chart just say so and i would gladly explain it.
Edit: this is the 4 H Chart

Edit: This chart is 3D...lol

Attachment 82511

So down around 1,0120 after that up around 1,0150 and down to 1,0050 and after that upp upp high in the sky

Edit: im out for some sleep be back for UK session

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

....Maybe steph67 knows the details you seek… I am dumb and not even qualified to be a dumb back-bencher.

Uh...lol, I will give a try at searching. It's a very interesting topic with potentially explosives ramifications in a way...But to be honest, do not expect to much from a dumb back bencher who turned bad into IT...Maybe I should have picked Economy instead ...long story.

As of who will buy when the Fed pulls the plug, I assume what you mean is....at which price (the rent of borrowing) Treasury will have the funds (e.g., Greece, Portugal, etc...), and all this relates to the default risk. Many countries are in a so-so position in term of debt/GDP ratio. Of course the now famous PIGS do not have the tools to act directly on the monetary policy (devaluation) to attempt to boost exports. And the peg of the Yuan is one wearing the guilty hat, but I guess it might not be so simple. The obvious...you have to sell something (goods or services) preferably not in competition with emerging countries, and preferably something consumed by these. I did not dig in the details, but I guess Germans are doing good at that these days.

Originally Posted by Mary R

....There are many theories on the issue of why Mr. Bernanke and the fed are continuing this program, and probably several reasons. Bernanke says that they are lowering interest rates and thus stimulating the economy and creating jobs. That has some validity but there is a point at which the QE is causing more harm than good and I think we are near that point, which is why I think they may be starting to wind down the program in the next few months.

I am not a big fan of QE either, for different reasons. Among others, does the money ''move through'' the financial system to help people and enterprises needing it? That is not clear to me. I will go with a so-so comparison...if you see a mechanic dropping the grease randomly over an engine, you might be worried that important pieces will be missing some. Also, I keep asking myself, what would the Fed do if deficit/debt was controlled better? (Not saying it is easy or that it should...I guess it is another topic.)...I am a bit puzzled with the Fed / debt link. Like the egg and the chicken...