Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

Update

Attachment 86977

AUD/USD

price got rejected twice at Fib 50% resistance of decline from top , which may suggest we could revisit 1.0520 or lower towards 1.0370 before finally resuming uptrend

But I would stay cautious here on my short as price still got well bid/supported above 1.0700 , with important data release tomorrow (AU trade balance + china data)
I have notice strong buying interest since early Asia time

NZD/USD

Same thing, I presume NZD is weaker than AUD looking at AUD/NZD chart, so I short more on NZD, price could not pass Fib 38.2 resistance of decline from top, which suggest lower towards 7730s,
Same caution as long as price trade above 7880 where it got well supported

Originally Posted by piri

AUD/USD

price got rejected twice at Fib 50% resistance of decline from top , which may suggest we could revisit 1.0520 or lower towards 1.0370 before finally resuming uptrend

But I would stay cautious here on my short as price still got well bid/supported above 1.0700 , with important data release tomorrow (AU trade balance + china data)
I have notice strong buying interest since early Asia time

NZD/USD

Same thing, I presume NZD is weaker than AUD looking at AUD/NZD chart, so I short more on NZD, price could not pass Fib 38.2 resistance of decline from top, which suggest lower towards 7730s,
Same caution as long as price trade above 7880 where it got well supported

Covered all short with only 10 pip gain, not comfortable , looks like getting higher with AUD looks like forming inverted H&S

Economic Calendar: This is a very heavy week of high importance announcements that should provide plenty of volatility in the days ahead. US Import prices, Chinese Consumer Price Index and the Bank of England Inflation Report are just a few.
For a more detailed calendar, click here.

For access to real time news, click here

Forex @ DailyFX - Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 05.09.2011



Good Luck in your Trading!

Economic Calendar: This is a very heavy week of high importance announcements that should provide plenty of volatility in the days ahead. US Import prices, Chinese Consumer Price Index and the Bank of England Inflation Report are just a few.
For a more detailed calendar, click here.

For access to real time news, click here

Forex @ DailyFX - Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 05.09.2011



Good Luck in your Trading!

NZD/USD 240-Minute Triangle May Breakout South on S&P Downgrade

Originally Posted by Mary R

Interesting... But the question is, are they reporting numbers that are too high or too low, and what is their motivation for doing so?

Politics, the universal concept. The Chinese regime exaggerates growth numbers for internal propaganda ("we are good economic managers who deserve to govern") while it understates other data for external posturing and international negotiations ("we are a weak undeveloped country in need of special breaks").

Originally Posted by Mary R

Its also possible that their methods of statistical data collection and analysis may be flawed. Some people have suggested that the US economic numbers are often bogus. while I doubt they are completely bogus, there are usually some mistakes. That's why you hear the phrase that last month's numbers were revised up or down. Why didn't they get it right the first time?

Maybe I am too cynical but I think you are too generous to attribute dubious numbers to incompetence. However, regardless of whether or not Chinese methods are flawed, its authoritarian government simply lies with impunity as it pleases. In the US and other democracies, such flagrant deception would be risky because of the public accountability and potential backlash, so instead they manipulate their statistical techniques, perhaps none more infamously and controversially than the CPI in the US. Statistics Canada is the poster child of statistical abuse at Canada's leading mathematics faculty.

Statistical economist John Williams' service at shadowstats.com is a treasure chest of credible US economic and private sector data. I find it insightful and perhaps so might even a triple crown winner like you - triple congratulations !!! Some day I can imagine you starting your own website & business like kathy and leithtec did :-).

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Hey Mary, been awhile, maybe it would perk him up hearing from you like it does me. Yes it seems increasingly clear you will be proven right about no QE for now, at least not in the form of regular new bond buying like QE2, although repurchases should continue (i will call that QE 2.1 like QE lite).

It is also pretty clear that the Fed is signaling to all the dollar-pegged emerging markets to break off if they care about inflation. So some of those could become better currency plays than the EUR which has some significant problems inconsistent with its lofty levels against most others.

Have you any opinion about the VIX? I am getting killed in it. I started buying after it set new lows last week but it keeps going lower each day, and I have committed the classic trading blunder of repeatedly buying more to lower my average cost while it keeps dropping. Oops. At these levels in the VIX, one would think the world is enjoying unprecedented peace tranquility & prosperity instead of all the fuss. And the Fed still seems intent on supporting higher stocks (is that a new mandate? haha) with a lower dollar.

Hey Mary! Congratulations for winning the Be Your Own Analyst contest 3 times in a row! I just received an email from the research department!

Watch her Awesome video HERE: Forex @ DailyFX - BYOA: Be Your Own Analyst - Submit Videos and You Could Win Cash

The DailyFX Be Your Own Analyst winner has been announced for this week. Congrats again to Mary’s analysis of the Australian Dollar! Do you agree with her video? Post your response on the DailyFX facebook page (DailyFX | Facebook).

MaryR has won the contest three times now. Think you’ve got what it takes? Do you think you know where currencies are headed next week? We want to hear from you! Submit your trading videos to DailyFX’s “Be Your Own Analyst” contest for a chance to be featured on the DailyFX Facebook page and now be eligible to receive $100.00!

We want to know what you’re watching when you trade. Do you watch fundamentals or technicals? Do you have a specific trading strategy you always follow? Will Gold reach $1,600? Will the Euro fall apart? Send us your analysis of your favorite currency pairs, trade setups and chart formations. Be creative.

Record a 5 minute video with your thoughts and we’ll post it for everyone to see. Watch videos from other traders and get some new perspectives on the market.

Anyone can make a video and we’ll show you how to do it. Here’s what you need:

- Computer - Microphone or Headset

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- FXCM’s Free Charts (also free at dailyfx.com)

- A Trading Idea

Every week the DailyFX analyst team will select their favorite video and feature it on the DailyFX Facebook page. The lucky winner will also be eligible to receive $100.00!

There is no limit to the number of videos you can submit, so show us what you can do!

Full details here: CONTEST: Be Your Own Analyst

The DailyFX Be Your Own Analyst winner has been announced for this week. Congrats again to Mary’s analysis of the Australian Dollar! Do you agree with her video? Post your response on the DailyFX facebook page (DailyFX | Facebook).

MaryR has won the contest three times now. Think you’ve got what it takes? Do you think you know where currencies are headed next week? We want to hear from you! Submit your trading videos to DailyFX’s “Be Your Own Analyst” contest for a chance to be featured on the DailyFX Facebook page and now be eligible to receive $100.00!

We want to know what you’re watching when you trade. Do you watch fundamentals or technicals? Do you have a specific trading strategy you always follow? Will Gold reach $1,600? Will the Euro fall apart? Send us your analysis of your favorite currency pairs, trade setups and chart formations. Be creative.

Record a 5 minute video with your thoughts and we’ll post it for everyone to see. Watch videos from other traders and get some new perspectives on the market.

Anyone can make a video and we’ll show you how to do it. Here’s what you need:

- Computer - Microphone or Headset

- YouTube Account (it’s free at youtube.com)

- FXCM’s Free Charts (also free at dailyfx.com)

- A Trading Idea

Every week the DailyFX analyst team will select their favorite video and feature it on the DailyFX Facebook page. The lucky winner will also be eligible to receive $100.00!

There is no limit to the number of videos you can submit, so show us what you can do!

Full details here: CONTEST: Be Your Own Analyst

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Maybe I am too cynical but I think you are too generous to attribute dubious numbers to incompetence. However, regardless of whether or not Chinese methods are flawed, its authoritarian government simply lies with impunity as it pleases. In the US and other democracies, such flagrant deception would be risky because of the public accountability and potential backlash, so instead they manipulate their statistical techniques, perhaps none more infamously and controversially than the CPI in the US. Statistics Canada is the poster child of statistical abuse at Canada's leading mathematics faculty.

Statistical economist John Williams' service at shadowstats.com is a treasure chest of credible US economic and private sector data. I find it insightful and perhaps so might even a triple crown winner like you - triple congratulations !!! Some day I can imagine you starting your own website & business like kathy and leithtec did :-).

I certainly don't know what the Chinese government is up to but actions speak louder than words - they keep raising rates . Thanks for the vote of confidence - does leithtec have his own website now?

I had the same thoughts only on the long side. Went long at 7897 and got out at 7911 last nite
as price action seemed to stall out. technically it looked a bit stronger to me than the aussie
last nite but with your view seeing it looking weaker, and cutting it short, I can only garner
too much congestion right at this level for me to trade. I'll wait for a breakout one way or the
other for confirmation.
Thanks for the graphs. I'll try to get one posted of my own so you can see it from my side
of the street.
kdigs

Originally Posted by piri

AUD/USD

price got rejected twice at Fib 50% resistance of decline from top , which may suggest we could revisit 1.0520 or lower towards 1.0370 before finally resuming uptrend

But I would stay cautious here on my short as price still got well bid/supported above 1.0700 , with important data release tomorrow (AU trade balance + china data)
I have notice strong buying interest since early Asia time

NZD/USD

Same thing, I presume NZD is weaker than AUD looking at AUD/NZD chart, so I short more on NZD, price could not pass Fib 38.2 resistance of decline from top, which suggest lower towards 7730s,
Same caution as long as price trade above 7880 where it got well supported

Originally Posted by Mary R

I certainly don't know what the Chinese government is up to but actions speak louder than words - they keep raising rates . Thanks for the vote of confidence - does leithtec have his own website now?

Thank goodness for higher rates and capital ratios in China to help maintain some bit of integrity in that banking system. All in all I think China will re-accelerate this year, in contrast to the tightening “slowdown” story everyone reads about here. PBOC is preparing to sell 3-year notes for the first time since last year, which will effectively add liquidity and could surprise people here about Chinese tightening and demand. Monitor the PBOC new loans data too. Taking a broader perspective, I like what Kathy said today from Singapore on her website.

Yes leithtec started an interesting website last year. He stopped updating it for quite awhile so I stopped visiting and now I’ve misplaced it. Maybe he or someone will say (I m sure he is still reading here, aren’t you leithtec).

Originally Posted by Mary R

does leithtec have his own website now?

Here it is.