Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

still valid nice drop this morning.

Originally Posted by vonzey

All this nutty volitilaty got me thinking>>>>>>ending diagnol>>>>>>, spinning top on the 30 min, deep retracements, mabey this is the ticket, buy limit at (4)@1.0575

4 hr chart
1= 1.0755
2= 1.0524
3= 1.0798
4= 1.0575 ish (Projection)
5= 1.0820 ish (Projection)

Then a massive el dumpo, too early too tell just a gut feeling. No shorting for me here palying it safe. But if this plays out a short at (5) will be the trade of the year.

Originally Posted by vonzey

still valid nice drop this morning.

Hy Vonzey

This the 2 H Chart .It could goo down but it also could goo upp so be carefull...and there is a H&S developing

Good Luck

Attachment 91813

Hey Mo, Im staying flat my thoughts are a longshot, looking to go long at lower levels

Originally Posted by Mozart

Hy Vonzey

This the 2 H Chart .It could goo down but it also could goo upp so be carefull...and there is a H&S developing

Good Luck

Attachment 91813

Hi Mary, VIX Index is @21.08 now! Will monitor closely. Once it drop, I will start shorting heavily!

ok im long from 1,07232 with a stop loss at 1,06800
If im right then 5v goona break thru and we should goo up from here to 1,088-1,097

Im goona give it a try

Good Luck

Edit: if 5v dosen't break thru then we have some cluster's at 1,066 and there is a posibility that there we goona havethe rght shoulder.
If the 5v dosent goona break thru on the 15 m chart
Edit: moved stop loss (take profit) to 1,0725

Attachment 91828

USD at critical point, next few weeks will hold the key.

My count is still alive moved buy limit (3)up to 1.0589 to kiss bottom trendline, but it might blast off from here u never know,, hey moe i found a new toy, goto nostradomus compass. com very cool momentum tool has made me some $.

Originally Posted by vonzey

All this nutty volitilaty got me thinking>>>>>>ending diagnol>>>>>>, spinning top on the 30 min, deep retracements, mabey this is the ticket, buy limit at (4)@1.0575

4 hr chart
1= 1.0755
2= 1.0524
3= 1.0798
4= 1.0575 ish (Projection)
5= 1.0820 ish (Projection)

Then a massive el dumpo, too early too tell just a gut feeling. No shorting for me here palying it safe. But if this plays out a short at (5) will be the trade of the year.

Originally Posted by vonzey

My count is still alive moved buy limit (3)up to 1.0589 to kiss bottom trendline, but it might blast off from here u never know,, hey moe i found a new toy, goto nostradomus compass. com very cool momentum tool has made me some $.

Hy vonzey
Thank's
I just arived home and see the Aussie making a triangle 5v sidevays.
It's all good...looking for the next week trade ...gona be fun
Just shorted too 1,0560...look's like ok.
Thinking off a larger dropp next week...hmmm

I'm going bullish next week as of now bottom ending diagnol trendline is at 1.0569 should rocket up to 1.0820 for (5) or (e)

Originally Posted by Mozart

Hy vonzey
Thank's
I just arived home and see the Aussie making a triangle 5v sidevays.
It's all good...looking for the next week trade ...gona be fun
Just shorted too 1,0560...look's like ok.
Thinking off a larger dropp next week...hmmm

Originally Posted by vonzey

I'm going bullish next week as of now bottom ending diagnol trendline is at 1.0569 should rocket up to 1.0820 for (5) or (e)

This is the 8 H chart...this are the option's that im looking for the next week...
With white is the trend line and wave count...
With yellow support and resistance...
With red is the path of the Aussie....

Attachment 91900

Originally Posted by Mary R

I think USDCAD is going to be range bound between .95 and 1.00, probably for a long time unless the BoC raises rates this year, and they may wait for a hint from the Fed . The extreme predictions I've seen on this form for the USDCAD pair to drop to .80 are unlikely in my opinion. I think the downward spikes we have seen on the US dollar in the last few days are due more to the uncertainty over the debt limit debate more than Mr. Bernanke's non committal pontificating. But the US dollar has actually held up pretty well despite the downgrade threats. The ratings agencies have been downgrading countries so much lately that they run the risk that no one will pay attention anymore. They might as well downgrade the entire Western hemisphere, everyone has too much debt

The entire over-leveraged world probably faces a rating of junk status eventually as ratings agencies increasingly engage in one-upmanship.

There are reasons why USDCAD keeps trending lower overall and I expect this to continue over time. That has been reinforced by US data and the Fed which is more likely to next move toward easing rather than tightening, or at least maintain zero interest rates throughout next year. The monetary policy gap between the US and Canada is likely to slowly widen. I think the commodity supercycle is still on, that numerous commodities will strengthen and despite the current noise from the EU and the recent soft patch, the real story for materials that began with Asia still is Asia and that will carry numerous materials higher later on along with CAD and AUD. I think longer term that it is actually quite possible for USDCAD to trade into the 80's, depending on events and policies to come. Watch the credit markets too.

Short term I am lost as to what would happen to USDCAD if the US defaulted on its debt. They say USD will drop but I think it could unfold unpredictably after that initial reaction. I don't understand what happened to the compromise deal which was reportedly in the works a week ago. Although it made little real progress on such large spending, it was a step and it was better than the proposals and dysfunction and uncertainty we see now. I know little of US politics, which is apparently now driving the issue, but I do think the saga has become unconstructive at best. The most likely outcome appears to be a temporary measure and kicking the can down the road? There appears to be too great a divide and dysfunction in the US to make meaningful progress on the debt & deficits so I think that instead some day markets will ultimately force their hand, like has happened elsewhere before.

I will miss most of the action because I will be vacationing until Sep 8 or so, although I will have to check in on things occasionally.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

The entire over-leveraged world probably faces a rating of junk status eventually as ratings agencies increasingly engage in one-upmanship.

There are reasons why USDCAD keeps trending lower overall and I expect this to continue over time. That has been reinforced by US data and the Fed which is more likely to next move toward easing rather than tightening, or at least maintain zero interest rates throughout next year. The monetary policy gap between the US and Canada is likely to slowly widen. I think the commodity supercycle is still on, that numerous commodities will strengthen and despite the current noise from the EU and the recent soft patch, the real story for materials that began with Asia still is Asia and that will carry numerous materials higher later on along with CAD and AUD. I think longer term that it is actually quite possible for USDCAD to trade into the 80's, depending on events and policies to come. Watch the credit markets too.

Short term I am lost as to what would happen to USDCAD if the US defaulted on its debt. They say USD will drop but I think it could unfold unpredictably after that initial reaction. I don't understand what happened to the compromise deal which was reportedly in the works a week ago. Although it made little real progress on such large spending, it was a step and it was better than the proposals and dysfunction and uncertainty we see now. I know little of US politics, which is apparently now driving the issue, but I do think the saga has become unconstructive at best. The most likely outcome appears to be a temporary measure and kicking the can down the road? There appears to be too great a divide and dysfunction in the US to make meaningful progress on the debt & deficits so I think that instead some day markets will ultimately force their hand, like has happened elsewhere before.

I will miss most of the action because I will be vacationing until Sep 8 or so, although I will have to check in on things occasionally.

No one knows what would happen in the case of a default, but the fact remains that Obama could raise the debt ceiling unilaterally without Congress, so the odds of a default are overwhelmingly low. The bond market is demonstrating this. Both sides agree to big budget cuts, the only sticking point is a faction of the Republican party which will not agree to tax hikes under any circumstances. But the Bush tax cuts expire in 2012 anyway so they might not have a choice. The US will have to get used to austerity budgets of its own probably for years to come.

The Ozzie is indicating a tendancy to move north again. But will it ?? We should know the answer by weeks end.

Originally Posted by Ikee

The Ozzie is indicating a tendancy to move north again. But will it ?? We should know the answer by weeks end.

2 moves before the big decision.

Originally Posted by Mary R

No one knows what would happen in the case of a default, but the fact remains that Obama could raise the debt ceiling unilaterally without Congress, so the odds of a default are overwhelmingly low. The bond market is demonstrating this. Both sides agree to big budget cuts, the only sticking point is a faction of the Republican party which will not agree to tax hikes under any circumstances. But the Bush tax cuts expire in 2012 anyway so they might not have a choice. The US will have to get used to austerity budgets of its own probably for years to come.

Thanks and that will probably provide a brief relief rally? I do not advocate soak-the-rich or class warfare but it is incredulous that an organization profiting 17B per quarter pays zero tax. And the US is one of few nations west or east with no federal sales tax (some argue that a sales tax is more progressive than income tax because it cannot be evaded plus it taxes consumption instead of production … but US economic policymakers seem to prioritize on consumption). My understanding is that austerity would likely boost USDCAD and the dollar broadly (something US policymakers do not want?), but I perceive austerity is unlikely this year because the pain would jeopardize re-election chances next year. The combo of a weak currency and zero interest compensation is not working for US, perhaps because capital and investment flee from that. Even the money the Fed has pumped in as QE has largely fled offshore to foreign banks that are Fed primary dealers (HSBC, BNP, Barclays, UBS, SCC, etc) for spec and carry trade. Instead of being invested and lent to American as the Fed intended for QE. So enough of the QE and weak dollar experiment; that which has failed twice already would fail a third time. But I fear this Fed wants to try devaluing its way to prosperity and higher employment, which I find confounding as Bernanke is obviously a very intelligent and knowledgeable man who no doubt realizes that monetary stimulation failed in the 1970s and in Canada more recently as well as elsewhere.

Assuming they indeed get past the limit, obviously the EU problems should steal the spotlight from the dollar.

Got to go... Keep on piling up the byoa winnings, GL.