Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

Retail Traders have little faith in a continued dollar rally against the Canadian dollar. However, SSI points to higher USD/CAD. Given the safe haven status of the dollar, this dollar rally could persist for some time. the FOMC meeting Wednesday could change all that with a round of Quantative Easing (QE)

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at -1.51 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.22 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 71.3% lower than yesterday and 26.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 82.5% higher than yesterday and 26.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 41.8% weaker than yesterday and 12.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD gains.

since Canada is a major supplier of us oil, what affect does the price of oil have on the currency pairs?

New Zealand could move lower on worse current account balance figures due out at 6:45pm ET

The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows that retail traders are excessively long indicating more losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 2.16 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.98 as 66% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 91.0% higher than yesterday and 113.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 55.4% lower than yesterday and 53.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.3% weaker than yesterday and 36.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Originally Posted by RangeRider4300

since Canada is a major supplier of us oil, what affect does the price of oil have on the currency pairs?

Hello Rangerider! Oil and USD/CAD are Usually Negative Correlated- see attached chart.

Canadian CPI Could Be the Catalyst for a Breakout- Canadian CPI due out tomorrow (September 21st) may be just what the doctor ordered to break USD/CAD out of its malaise. The pair has been confined to a tight trading range between 1.0000 and 0.9750. The FOMC rate announcement due out at 2pm ET should also give the pair a boost.

RBNZD Bollard Says the NZD is Overvalued- A strong currency negatively effects exports by making them more expensive relative to domestic and other competitors.

Bollard may be heading off a possible rise in the New Zealand dollar as Fed policy has usually weakened the US Dollar.

NZDUSD trading near daily S1 Pivot. Price usually bounces sharply from this level. Let's keep an eye on it.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

New Zealand could move lower on worse current account balance figures due out at 6:45pm ET

The Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows that retail traders are excessively long indicating more losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 2.16 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.98 as 66% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 91.0% higher than yesterday and 113.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 55.4% lower than yesterday and 53.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.3% weaker than yesterday and 36.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Higher than Expected Deficit for Q2 Sends Kiwi Lower - SSI also indicated further losses for NZD/USD.

Positive New Out of Greece Pushing Aussie Higher- Trading near the 1.0200 handle, the AUD/USD has bounced from its weekly S1 pivot. This is bullish for the pair as AUD/USD could rebound to test the 9/15 high in the 1.0400 vicinity. The FOMC rate decision out at 2:15pm ET could provide a further catalyst for price action.

Press Release

Release Date: September 21, 2011

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

To help support conditions in mortgage markets, the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who did not support additional policy accommodation at this time.

2011 Monetary Policy Releases

Press Release

Release Date: September 21, 2011

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that economic growth remains slow. Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has been increasing at only a modest pace in recent months despite some recovery in sales of motor vehicles as supply-chain disruptions eased. Investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. Inflation appears to have moderated since earlier in the year as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect some pickup in the pace of recovery over coming quarters but anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Moreover, there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. The Committee intends to purchase, by the end of June 2012, $400 billion of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years and to sell an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less. This program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

To help support conditions in mortgage markets, the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Committee will maintain its existing policy of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who did not support additional policy accommodation at this time.

2011 Monetary Policy Releases

Hope everybody caught some of the drop : ). Anyways, we are approaching a multi month trend line support reinforced by a multi year trend line support as shown in red. A lot are calling for 9800 and I don't anticipate a break to that area yet before a corrective bounce, but anything can happen in this uncertain market. I feel like bottom picking soon, but will wait to see how the week ends and see if there's any sign of a corrective bounce.

In times of high risk averse, fear sweeping the market, support tend to just go out the door. What does everybody think, will 9930 hold this week?

247-Pip Breakout for USD/CAD fter Fed Announces "Operation Twist" - While the Fed was widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.25%, the addition of stark language to describe the US economy going forward made investors flee risk assets and to pile into the US dollar. USD/CAD was the beneficiary after breaking out to new 1-year highs not seen since November of 2010. USD/CAD has the potential of moving higher to 1.0600 and beyond.

Close to 300 pips. Anyone know whether this is the largest move ever within 24 hours?

This is probably the long-awaited, big bounce for USD. I been waiting for two years! Nobody really knows how high it can go, but each major high is significantly lower than the previous high. That is likely to continue given the fundamentals. But I would hope for at least 1.10 (?)

Three years ago, USDCAD moved fairly quickly from below parity to almost 1.30 before slowly grinding below parity again. US money-printing started the decline, as it surely will again within months.

Put into perspective, ten years ago USDCAD was 1.62

I do not suppose the G20 will do/announce anything in their meeting Thurs/Friday that suddenly thwarts or reverses this move? Like that $1.2-trillion "stimulus" last meeting in early spring that seemed to help send the dollar down and everything else up.