Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

Hello Traders! With just 5 shopping days left before Christmas, look for lighter volumes toward the weeks end as traders close up their books for the winter holidays. However, the economic calendar is chock full of "stocking stuffers". Will any of these trigger the elusive "Santa Claus" rally or will Santa leave markets a "lump of coal" for being naughty?

i think short position from 0.9925 to 0.9890
1 h chart

AUD/USD

Looking clearly bullish after taking out the high of 9940. I am now bullish looking for a move to 1 and maybe 1.0035 as long as we trade above 0.9925. Always when trading a breakout, the entry is important, we know if we are at a good entry if the potential reward is about 1.5 to 2 times the potential loss. Adding a moving average of 20 period in the 5 minute time frame will also help us avoiding entering at too expensive levels.

What is your take on AUD/USD? - Share it with the other members, post a message.

AUD/USD - 30 min


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Originally Posted by Mary R

Are you sure the MF Global losses were due to rehypothecation? the news I read indicated that the problem was a classic run on the bank -Once the news spread that the firm had made risky bets on European sovereign debt trading partners left and customers withdrew their money leaving MF Global scrambling to cover the margin. The main violation may have been using customer funds for the firm's trading account - a serious violation in the securities industry. Since the public sentiment ( that includes prosecutors, judges and juries) has turned highly hostile toward the wrongdoings of financiers there will likely be severe repercussions. I don't know if you read or heard about the recent federal judge's rejection of the proposed Citigroup settlement with the SEC, but this could be a precedent setting event.The most important part of his decision is not the amount of the money proposed but the fact that Citigroup's refusal to acknowledge any wrongdoing is not acceptable. Just writing a check and saying "we didn't do anything bad just take the money" isn't going to cut it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/bu...with-citi.html

Thanks for the link (contradicts the claim that NY judges are cronies to the big banks) and I agree with all you have written about these issues. Rehypothecation was not the cause but may have exacerbated the woes. I read hypothecated funds are supposed to be invested only in AAA stuff and if so, it sounds like MF broke that rule but not much is said of it, I guess because that pales next to the fraud and crap. The ramifications of the MF fraud and the CME handling of the situation are far reaching. It is precipitating a crisis of confidence for some.

Originally Posted by Mary R

I don't know how this is going to play out any more than anyone else but I think the EU is going to be in for a period of a long hard credit contraction. There is just no easy way to get out of debt whether you are a country, a company or an individual.

My guess is we might be closer to major QE in Europe, either official or unofficial, than what most observers expect and what officials have said. Same for the US, due in part to the swaps. So next year should end up being a year of QE and reflation. I remain bullish on oil for 2012 and I am becoming concerned that that USDCAD might have already peaked (perhaps almost 50% chance now, up from only 15-20% before) and it could move below parity eventually next year. I understand that the three FOMC hawks are leaving next year and being replaced with three doves, due to the practice of rotating the voting members, but I do not know exactly when?

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hey Ikee! Would you like to have a separate thread in the Trading Strategies Section devoted to Woodies CCI? I am sure others "Woody" traders may come out and share as well. I took the CD course 2 years ago and I found it pretty interesting.



Hi Greg. Thank you, That would be great. May I suggest a new thread called INDICATORS. This would encompass all indicators used by forum contributors. Allowing for discussions on our favourite indicators, their functions & how we use & manipulate them for maximum effect. "preferably with charts" To me, strategies & indicators are totally different. Thanks again mate. I am sure many forum users would like to contribute to this topic.

Stronger US Housing Data Pushing Up Risk Appetite Currencies - A$ could move up to the 1.01036-1.01530 area

USD/CAD was My Favorite Currency Today- The trading day started out very strong with the better than expected German Consumer confidence number. There was an across the board surge in risk appetite. However, by 6:00Am ET, the market was pretty flat and holding tight ranges. A few hours of consolidation is usually what happens after a big move. I was able to grab 2 10 pippers on the GER30 and 10 pips on EUR/JPY and EUR/USD. I was stopped out trying to pick bottom on USD/CAD but turned it around once the pair started to break down below support. I then let go of a flurry of USD/CAD shorts that limited out within minutes.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Thanks for the link (contradicts the claim that NY judges are cronies to the big banks) and I agree with all you have written about these issues. Rehypothecation was not the cause but may have exacerbated the woes. I read hypothecated funds are supposed to be invested only in AAA stuff and if so, it sounds like MF broke that rule but not much is said of it, I guess because that pales next to the fraud and crap. The ramifications of the MF fraud and the CME handling of the situation are far reaching. It is precipitating a crisis of confidence for some.


My guess is we might be closer to major QE in Europe, either official or unofficial, than what most observers expect and what officials have said. Same for the US, due in part to the swaps. So next year should end up being a year of QE and reflation. I remain bullish on oil for 2012 and I am becoming concerned that that USDCAD might have already peaked (perhaps almost 50% chance now, up from only 15-20% before) and it could move below parity eventually next year. I understand that the three FOMC hawks are leaving next year and being replaced with three doves, due to the practice of rotating the voting members, but I do not know exactly when?

There is a lot written about the opacity about the ECB, when they repo tomorrow and add another massive pile of assorted rubbish to their balance sheet I think they can see two things happening:

1. Successful auction: The additional liquidity in the European financial system increases asset prices and the ECB's leverage decreases.
2. Unsuccessful auction: likely more sell-off and the ECB's leverage rises.

I think we'll have the first option myself, whereby real QE can be delayed at least for a while. However, in the second event the ECB will be forced to either accept losses itself on the 'collateral' it has already taken on, or it will have to look for more collateral to be posted by the banks to whom it has already lent. In my opinion, they just keep the collateral they have and increase their own leverage (i.e. take the losses) , which is essentially money printing as politically it will find it very hard to keep demanding more and more from the people to whom it has already lent as this would lead to the demise of almost all the banks in question.

Either way, nominally these actions are very expansive and should support equity prices, leading to risk on. The opacity of the ECB makes it easier to manage an unsuccessful auction in that event.

Originally Posted by Ikee

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hey Ikee! Would you like to have a separate thread in the Trading Strategies Section devoted to Woodies CCI? I am sure others "Woody" traders may come out and share as well. I took the CD course 2 years ago and I found it pretty interesting.



Hi Greg. Thank you, That would be great. May I suggest a new thread called INDICATORS. This would encompass all indicators used by forum contributors. Allowing for discussions on our favourite indicators, their functions & how we use & manipulate them for maximum effect. "preferably with charts" To me, strategies & indicators are totally different. Thanks again mate. I am sure many forum users would like to contribute to this topic.

The "My Favorite Indicator" Thread is Now Open! Be the First to Post!

Hello Traders! The "My Favorite Indicator" thread is now open for discussion. Be one of the first to post and share with the Forum community your favorite indicators and how you use them in your everyday trading. This is a great place to find out how traders are using, modifying, and creating indicators to help them in their trading!

Join the conversation!
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/tradi...ml#post1003649 (My Favorite Indicators)

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Thanks for the link (contradicts the claim that NY judges are cronies to the big banks) and I agree with all you have written about these issues. Rehypothecation was not the cause but may have exacerbated the woes. I read hypothecated funds are supposed to be invested only in AAA stuff and if so, it sounds like MF broke that rule but not much is said of it, I guess because that pales next to the fraud and crap. The ramifications of the MF fraud and the CME handling of the situation are far reaching. It is precipitating a crisis of confidence for some.


My guess is we might be closer to major QE in Europe, either official or unofficial, than what most observers expect and what officials have said. Same for the US, due in part to the swaps. So next year should end up being a year of QE and reflation. I remain bullish on oil for 2012 and I am becoming concerned that that USDCAD might have already peaked (perhaps almost 50% chance now, up from only 15-20% before) and it could move below parity eventually next year. I understand that the three FOMC hawks are leaving next year and being replaced with three doves, due to the practice of rotating the voting members, but I do not know exactly when?

To me it looks like USDCAD is still in an upward trend and is consolidating into a very tight wedge which may not break out until next year but will probably break to the upside. a similar pattern exists in AUDUSD. I remain bearish on the stock market and commodity currencies for the next few months. Its hard to time anything - January is usually bullish for stocks, there are too many storm clouds on the horizon not just from Europe but also from Asia.

I think the regulators need to focus on the bigger players and preventing abuses also. I mean, JP Morgan and the big banks which took part in robo signing of mortgages documents can just write a check, the massive banks can lend little Mediterranean countries hundreds of billions which they will never be able to pay back and then blackmail the governments for money,and Jon Corzine can't find a billion dollars - but US citizens can't even watch a forex web video. What a strange world we live in. Maybe the regulators figure we're all so stupid we'll be brainwashed by videos.

One must guard against projecting recent trends into the future. Things can change. There exists mounting evidence and effect of the unofficial QE that I spoke of previously. Today's Spanish bond auction of short-term notes went splendidly, yielding 1.7% compared to 5.2% four weeks ago. Next there is about a half-trillion of repo/LTRO on wednesday from Draghi. I see sneaky, unoffocial, indirect euro QE... ECB lends to banks for 3-years at a ridiculously low 1% and then their banks buy higher-yielding sov debt. Helps recapitalize banks, improve liquidity and ease borrowing costs. The storm clouds that I see on the horizon are inflation and renewed dollar weakness sometime in 2012 especially against the petro-currencies. Timing is difficult.

Originally Posted by Mary R

US citizens can't even watch a forex web video. What a strange world we live in. Maybe the regulators figure we're all so stupid we'll be brainwashed by videos.

That is sad. Is it like the first step to forex exchange controls? haha. Using a proxy server while surfing can defeat censorship and is also the safe way to download copies of movies, software etc without grief from the providers or your ISP.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

One must guard against projecting recent trends into the future. Things can change. There exists mounting evidence and effect of the unofficial QE that I spoke of previously. Today's Spanish bond auction of short-term notes went splendidly, yielding 1.7% compared to 5.2% four weeks ago. Next there is about a half-trillion of repo/LTRO on wednesday from Draghi. I see sneaky, unoffocial, indirect euro QE... ECB lends to banks for 3-years at a ridiculously low 1% and then their banks buy higher-yielding sov debt. Helps recapitalize banks, improve liquidity and ease borrowing costs. The storm clouds that I see on the horizon are inflation and renewed dollar weakness sometime in 2012 especially against the petro-currencies. Timing is difficult.

The whole thing would be an experiment in debasing the euro even if it is successful - it seems like enticing the banks to borrow cheap and buy even more of the debt that got them in trouble in the first place is a dangerous game...and it doesn't really solve any of the problems in the long run...

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

The "My Favorite Indicator" Thread is Now Open! Be the First to Post!

Hello Traders! The "My Favorite Indicator" thread is now open for discussion. Be one of the first to post and share with the Forum community your favorite indicators and how you use them in your everyday trading. This is a great place to find out how traders are using, modifying, and creating indicators to help them in their trading!

Join the conversation!
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/tradi...ml#post1003649 (My Favorite Indicators)

Thanks Greg. Hopefully there will be many contributors to this new thread. It should be of interest to new & old traders.(Young n old too) cheers.

Originally Posted by Mary R

The whole thing would be an experiment in debasing the euro even if it is successful - it seems like enticing the banks to borrow cheap and buy even more of the debt that got them in trouble in the first place is a dangerous game...and it doesn't really solve any of the problems in the long run...

Yes I think you are right (and I am afraid currency debasement will go global), but what you describe is what Draghi seems to have planned and it might even calm markets by working - at least until it doesn't! Our old friend DSK, now free to tell us what he really thinks, lashes out at what he sees as the core triple threats to europe. Also something else about debasing the euro and Bill Gross weighs in. A brief interesting read or two:

DSK Speaks in Beijing