Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

Originally Posted by Mary R

If you look at a very long term chart of the US dollar (forty years ) you will see that it hit a peak in 1983-1984 then declined a massive 50% in the following decade. From 1994 to 2000 the US dollar rose 20%. Then from 2000 to 2008 there was another massive decline in the dollar. It is my opinion that we are in the process of bottoming at multi decade lows which will be followed by a long term bull market, but what do I know... if we're all around in 10 years you can look back at my chart and tell me if I was right or wrong

At that dollar up-cycle peak 36 years ago, the US had been the world’s largest creditor nation for some 60 years, so the Fed could/did massively hike rates to combat inflation, which of course sent the dollar soaring.

That was the long-cycle peak, and if you look at the long wave cycle of 60 or 51.6 years for currencies over the millennia, you will see we are still in the dollar slide phase, as per various long wave theories.

Unfortunately today, as the largest creditor nation ever, the US is unable to absorb even tiny Interest rate increases, and the Fed is terrified of higher rates. Thus Fed ZIRP has been and will be a no-brainer until the US sov debt crisis hits the wall SPLAT (now inevitable per dozens of similar precedents over centuries as documented in Reinhart & Rogoff’s great book).

That flush will be the end of the long wave down cycle and when the dollar (or the successor US currency) starts a new primary uptrend again. No sooner, notwithstanding the usual corrective waves of course.

Okay, after GBP/AUD didn't reach its butterfly last night I zoomed in on this nice gartley with resistance on EUR/GBP. Shorts at .8422, this should be a good one. Attachment 120462

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

At that dollar up-cycle peak 36 years ago, the US had been the world’s largest creditor nation for some 60 years, so the Fed could/did massively hike rates to combat inflation, which of course sent the dollar soaring.

That was the long-cycle peak, and if you look at the long wave cycle of 60 or 51.6 years for currencies over the millennia, you will see we are still in the dollar slide phase, as per various long wave theories.

Unfortunately today, as the largest creditor nation ever, the US is unable to absorb even tiny Interest rate increases, and the Fed is terrified of higher rates. Thus Fed ZIRP has been and will be a no-brainer until the US sov debt crisis hits the wall SPLAT (now inevitable per dozens of similar precedents over centuries as documented in Reinhart & Rogoff’s great book).

That flush will be the end of the long wave down cycle and when the dollar (or the successor US currency) starts a new primary uptrend again. No sooner, notwithstanding the usual corrective waves of course.

I see it from a different perspective - I think the philosophy of Reaganism is poisonous to the American dollar, and until the US is purged of this ideology the dollar is at a serious risk. The upcoming election will be critical.

Those who believe that the Fed won't raise rates because of the deficit don't really understand the US legal system. The US isn't going to face a sovereign crisis for the same reason the Europeans have been able to control their crisis. They default on their citizens not on the bond holders. it's already starting at the local level and the state level and it will likely occur at the federal level too. Take a look at the following article about a federal judge who let a municipality pay its bond holders in full while slashing pensions. it's good to be the bond market.
Judge lets bankrupt US town slash pensions - FT.com

But ultimately no one can predict the long term future - the concept that this is possible is a very Newtonian view of the universe, thinking that everything repeats itself in a perfect cycle. The laws of thermodynamics disprove much of that theory. So I don't know any more than anyone else and neither do Reinhart and Rogoff

Originally Posted by For-ex-wifes

Ciao Mary,
If you watch the hourly chart of the $index this month, yesterday closed a gap up made at the beg of march, left open for over 3 weeks: if the hammer will be confirmed this week, then we can think of a long term level pointing to 90 and little above.
I posted last week a clear double HnS always on hourly tf, that seems to be ended just yesterday.
Last but not least, with eurchf peg now the euro weight in the index is above 60%.

Cheers from sunny southern italy
Emi

Cheers - you are lucky to live in southern italy. I visited the Amalfi coast one time, it was the most beautiful place Ive ever seen. Maybe if the euro goes lower I can afford another trip to Italy

Originally Posted by Nature Boy

Hi SkiBuuny

Don't be worried about the dollar yet because it is still in a uptrend series according to my CD Wave Theory. The dollar will not suffer any major pullback until it create a new high above 10134 on the daily chart and even then the dollar will still remain in a long term bullish trend.

Thank you very much for the charts and stuff... I will definitely look at it and consider and hope!
We need a LOT more than 10134 ... That is still 6000 pips below where it was ten yrs ago.
Anything below 1.25 is bad, considering 1.25 is widely considered to be the PPP value, and usdcad was 1.30 three years ago.
Canada is facing an overdue major housing & debt deflation, similar to Australia now and the US for five years.
Under the fundamental and tech circumstances, I hope for a lot more than 10134 ... but the saying is that hope is for losers
Thanks again!

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Yeah you sure got that right! But I worry about everything

What you said about Iran, also applies to America too.

But you know what, for all the differences and posturing between governments, everywhere, there are very little differences between people, at least from my wee experience and observations. Their customs and cultures differ, but more importantly their basic values and aspirations have much in common. Why can’t we just all get along? Because too many “leaders” are aggressive sociopaths, egomaniacs or in need confrontation to distract from their policy failures… and also because too many people are ignorant (the way the leaders prefer it).

So I oppose all national governments. They have failed humanity and inflicted massive suffering for way too long already. We need just one queen bee for all, like me

It's very sad that you think the Americans don't really have any allies only enemies... But it may be true in many areas that people object to the policies of the US government and military although they don't really hate the American people. But the same is true of Iran... the present regime appears highly hostile and belligerent but I have met a few ex patriot Iranians living in the US who escaped after the Ayotollah took over and they say that most Iranian people do not agree with the actions of their government...

The theme that civilization in inherently dehumanizing and that all governments are inherently malevolent and destructive is as old as the Bible and found in almost every science fiction horror movie ever made...

AUD headed to 1.027?

Charts from today's edition of the webinar Bulls vs. Bears @ The Trading Room 11:30 GMT Mon - Fri
Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/AlejandroDFX

daily and 4 hour charts attached with a few TL. also added the USDOLLAR, looks like a bull flag possibly........

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Originally Posted by Mary R

It's very sad that you think the Americans don't really have any allies only enemies... But it may be true in many areas that people object to the policies of the US government and military although they don't really hate the American people. But the same is true of Iran... the present regime appears highly hostile and belligerent but I have met a few ex patriot Iranians living in the US who escaped after the Ayotollah took over and they say that most Iranian people do not agree with the actions of their government...

The theme that civilization in inherently dehumanizing and that all governments are inherently malevolent and destructive is as old as the Bible and found in almost every science fiction horror movie ever made...

But I like science fiction

What you said about distinguishing between the people and the government… exactly! Fortunately, I think many people think that way… therefore in my wee experience & observation, individuals of all nationalities are usually well-received when visiting any other country regardless of the government relations. I already knew you are enlightened enough to understand the subtleties behind my reply, “What you said about Iran also applies to America” in response to your assertion that Iran has no allies, just enemies. Or else I would not have written it. The image of the US government has diminished in the last ten years for various reasons, and a rich superpower by its nature will have enemies and dubious allies of convenience. But the US and Canada have its “special relationship” with England. That is more than many other national governments have

Originally Posted by Mary R

I see it from a different perspective - I think the philosophy of Reaganism is poisonous to the American dollar, and until the US is purged of this ideology the dollar is at a serious risk. The upcoming election will be critical.

Those who believe that the Fed won't raise rates because of the deficit don't really understand the US legal system. The US isn't going to face a sovereign crisis for the same reason the Europeans have been able to control their crisis. They default on their citizens not on the bond holders. it's already starting at the local level and the state level and it will likely occur at the federal level too. Take a look at the following article about a federal judge who let a municipality pay its bond holders in full while slashing pensions. it's good to be the bond market.
Judge lets bankrupt US town slash pensions - FT.com

My perspective is that US has also defaulted on its debt to bondholders, albeit insidiously rather than overtly, through severe currency dilution. For example, anyone in Canada who bought and held the 10 year US Treasury has a loss of 61 cents on the dollar now at maturity. Similarly, Treasury investors from elsewhere have also taken large haircuts, some more and some less. US investors have lost too as real inflation has robbed them of their return and purchasing power (as demonstrated by the “silver quarter” poster above). Apparently a lot of investors share my perspective because almost nobody buys long US bonds anymore, except for the Fed and primary dealers obliged to cover.

That is an interesting example about the municipal pensioner and bondholder, but I doubt the OWS crowd and entitlement-brainwashed masses will permit “rich” bondholders to be paid while common folk get the finger. If judges so rule, they will eventually feel the wrath of mob justice. That is how revolutions begin.

Originally Posted by Mary R

But ultimately no one can predict the long term future - the concept that this is possible is a very Newtonian view of the universe, thinking that everything repeats itself in a perfect cycle. The laws of thermodynamics disprove much of that theory. So I don't know any more than anyone else and neither do Reinhart and Rogoff

The R&R study is not about cycles or theories. Rather, it is mostly mountains of data, tables, basic numbers and outlines of historical parallels. Like boring accounting things. Check it out but you may not like what you see… As US Treasurer Geither said this week when questioned about the level of US debt, “It would make you feel uncomfortable”. And he was probably understating it to minimize the fuss.

It seems dollar bearish to me over the next few years. Doesn’t mean dollar wont have any major corrective upswings, but its primary trend and longer term destination is probably down. Clearly it wont be alone though. Possibly usdcad will rise overall in coming years, because for one thing usdcad is so undervalued currently on PPP, and also Americans are much further along in their individual deleveraging than Canadians, who are over-extended in debt and dismissing the warnings of BOC Carney as party-pooper nonsense.

Hello,

Wait for a Divergence at the oval shape in my chart. If its not a divergence formed AND a candle reversal trigger to enter.
I will do this, I will place my stops accordingly (Might be below the Fib or below the daily low, whichever appears firmer).

Most probably this will not be formed today, unless a clear hammer is formed with a strong long shadow, high doubts though. I think tomorrow would be the day.
Just my cents, Im not saying it will happen