Thread: Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more

If the reporting of company profits this week is favourable, we will see the AUD rise into the .94's where it will be bouyed by the upcoming rate decsion on Feb 2. If the rate goes up we could see a .96

At this juncture I will be looking to close out my longs and will start to short the AUD at 1 cent intervals. (ie.....at 96 and at 97, 98 - if it gets there)

As we get closer to the states lifting rates the AUD will be headed back to 85.

The RBA is likely to hold rates in March, which means it will be a struggle for the AUD to continue rising........so I am thinking a peak in the AUD/US pair is going to come post feb2 and pre March.

Australia is likely to then pause at 4% and may not start hiking again until the US does which is going to put downward pressure on the AUD.

the phoenix

Originally Posted by vespones

Padawan ,

I´m LONG @ EURAUD 1.5565 , it formed a strong double bottom

TP : 1.58
SL : 1.5535

Right now holding 30 pip profit

Regards

So, are you now holding an actual 30 pip loss?

Originally Posted by the phoenix

So, are you now holding an actual 30 pip loss?

No, I´m stopped out already due to iliquid markets on bank holiday . Waiting to break again 1.5535 to enter long . Same long position reported 150 pips a few days ago and it has potential for more.

Originally Posted by vespones

No, I´m stopped out already due to iliquid markets on bank holiday . Waiting to break again 1.5535 to enter long . Same long position reported 150 pips a few days ago and it has potential for more.

Its already broken it at 1.5517 now

Why dontcha wait for a better entry? (ie, 1.52's)

the phoenix

I'm thinking we're going down. But still with the possibility with some upside around .7445

Originally Posted by the phoenix

Its already broken it at 1.5517 now

Why dontcha wait for a better entry? (ie, 1.52's)

the phoenix

gone all supports but one: 1.4990 - 1.500

I`m gonna wait it there.

NZD/USD (left) and AUD/USD (right) both look technically weak at the moment and may be due for a correction. We'll see.

They are still coiling up but the latest high is much lower.

Tempting looking Aud/Usd setup. . . But after I bank my Usd/Yen short I'm going flat. Had a good night on the Nzd/Usd. closed those shorts right before she shot back up 5 hours ago.

P.S. If Aud/Usd falls on more of a grand scale (Daily Chart) it should help Eur/Aud with an upward boost right?

Originally Posted by Padawan

Tempting looking Aud/Usd setup. . . But after I bank my Usd/Yen short I'm going flat. Had a good night on the Nzd/Usd. closed those shorts right before she shot back up 5 hours ago.

Yeah,that broadening/cone pattern looks pretty bearish. could set up a near term fall for AUD/USD. We'll have to watch and see if it breaks the green uptrend line.

I entered again LONG EURAUD @ 1.545 . Looking for 100 pips with tight stop. Reason is long term downside trendline formed a triangle with lasts bullish attempts.

TP : 1.555
SL : 1.5425

Also commodities (CAD, AUD, NZD) will take a breath in next days

Regards

Originally Posted by vespones

I entered again LONG EURAUD @ 1.545 . Looking for 100 pips with tight stop. Reason is long term downside trendline formed a triangle with lasts bullish attempts.

TP : 1.555
SL : 1.5425

Also commodities (CAD, AUD, NZD) will take a breath in next days

Regards

Can you post a chart of what you're looking at? Thx.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Can you post a chart of what you're looking at? Thx.

Here you have

Originally Posted by vespones

Here you have

Yeah, I see what you mean...a falling wedge. I'd draw it a bit differently...like this.

Falling wedges, while bullish...can have a really rough road getting back towards the top of the pattern (like the yellow instance provided below). Then I think the pair will likely dump down lower once again based off of the long term downtrend and due to superior fundamentals in Australia to that of the Euro Zone.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

gone all supports but one: 1.4990 - 1.500

I`m gonna wait it there.

Good idea.

The Euro is on the verge of collapse from its supports. Greece etc is too much to bear for the currency to hold its value. Also growth in Europe is going to be sluggish.

meanwhile, I think the AUD is revving up for a zoom into new waters. The profit reporting season is shaping up to the upside which should lift equitites and thus the AUD. In 13 days the RBA meets to lift interest rates. I can see the AUD above its last high of .9405 prior to the rate decision, and at .96 if they put rates up to 4%.

If there is no rate rise, clearly, you'd close out of your longs. If there is a rate rise I am going to hold for a 1.3 cent rise and then bail and then swing to the short side in cent intervals.

If this pans out - its likely that the EUR/AUD gets close to that 1.499, especially when you combine debt woes of europe which will only serve to excubate downward momentum.

I think we will see AUD rally to Feb 2.

the phoenix

ps.......markets expect a rate decison increase, so that will keep the rate bouyed until its a yay or a nay.

I can see the Euro being dumped across the board. I heard the PIGS are to blame....LOL. (P)ortugal, (I)taly, (G)reece, (S)pain.......and throw in (I)reland too..........

-0.2% vs. 0% expected on NZD CPI...