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02-13-2009, 12:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andre77
Its gonna be a 2-3 week strategy ending on the begging of March. When the 75 bp rate cut is expected on March 3.
My strategy is to buy 50% of a long AUD/USD position at .6380 (currently at .6560) and to buy the second half at .6465. With a S/L of about 70 pips on each
The take profit objective is for 50% ahead of the 100-day moving average, currently at 0.6777. and for the second 50% at 0.6900, which is roughly the top of the Ichimoku cloud. If it breaks the cloud then im looking to hold until 0.71/0.73 area.
Wish me luck
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Sounds like a well formulated setup. Fits the technicals I'm looking at.
I just checked the consensus, and it seems that economists are expecting a 50 bps rate cut. Overnight index swaps are calling for a similar number.
Have you taken into account what may could happen with risk trends? Looks like things may start happening in the yen crosses.
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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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02-15-2009, 12:23 AM
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Follow the Leader?
Hello all, I'm a new forex trader trying to learn. I've been overlaying pairs on the charts and think I might see something. The AUD/JPY seems like it is ready to lose 150 pips to meet with the AUD/NZD. Of course, the AUD/NZD could gain but it looks like the higher one loses ground easier than the lower one gains. I'm hoping to try this out live.
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02-16-2009, 04:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PipSqueeker
Hello all, I'm a new forex trader trying to learn. I've been overlaying pairs on the charts and think I might see something. The AUD/JPY seems like it is ready to lose 150 pips to meet with the AUD/NZD. Of course, the AUD/NZD could gain but it looks like the higher one loses ground easier than the lower one gains. I'm hoping to try this out live.
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These two seem to have a general correlation to each other; but it isn't one that I would attempt. The divergence between the two can be substantial. And, your chart only takes into account a month worth of activity. These relationships rise and fall with time.
I guess it depends on what your strategy is. The signals for entry and what pair you are actually following is important; but vital is your stops and allowance for drawdowns as you wait for the correlation to kick in.
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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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02-16-2009, 04:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PipSqueeker
Hello all, I'm a new forex trader trying to learn. I've been overlaying pairs on the charts and think I might see something. The AUD/JPY seems like it is ready to lose 150 pips to meet with the AUD/NZD. Of course, the AUD/NZD could gain but it looks like the higher one loses ground easier than the lower one gains. I'm hoping to try this out live.
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correlations generally have validity from hour to hour and trades based on correlations can be likened to slots...... |
02-18-2009, 03:33 PM
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It seem there is a nice rising trend to the AUDUSD swing lows over the past four months. A gradual trendline and ascending wedge? I don't know. Any opinions?
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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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02-18-2009, 04:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
It seem there is a nice rising trend to the AUDUSD swing lows over the past four months. A gradual trendline and ascending wedge? I don't know. Any opinions?
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That may hold but it seems like the AUDJPY would be a better trade. Finally today the AUDUSD and NZDUSD rallied while the EURUSD fell and the YEN was weak. The EUR has lost its luster do to the mess in Eastern Europe. And the YEN has lost its appeal do to GDP falling off a cliff. And traders are falling all over themselves to buy the USD against almost anything. I vote for the AUDJPY. |
02-19-2009, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
It seem there is a nice rising trend to the AUDUSD swing lows over the past four months. A gradual trendline and ascending wedge? I don't know. Any opinions?
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Nice rebound from AUDUSD. It seems to be a dollar-wide move; but with the yen crosses rising as well, it is probably a general boost in investor sentiment.
We are already starting to lose steam though. A few notable technical levels across the Aussie crosses were confirmed with this recent reversal; but no breakouts have significantly changed market expectations. What do you guys think? Will AUD sustain its rebound?
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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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02-19-2009, 01:16 PM
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DIA down .40% NASDAQ Composite down .62% SPY down .11%. USDJPY
up .57%, AUDUSD up 1.37%, AUDJPY up 1.94% NZDUSD up .92%. What does that say about risk and where these currencies may go?
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02-19-2009, 02:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaiserboy
correlations generally have validity from hour to hour and trades based on correlations can be likened to slots......
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I rolled the dice on AUD/USD back in early Jan. My limit was initially placed at .63** It went up around .7*** and depleted my margin  and Then went down like I thought it would, but only after I was out of the game. It was a $25.00 gamble that should have been an awesome trade.
When I initiated that trade, what I saw was the ascending wedge that was mentioned. I also saw a correlation with another currency which looked very similar but seemed to lead. The other currency looked like the Chikou Span for AUD/USD.
I'm learning from here, thanks.
Harry |
02-20-2009, 04:21 AM
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My Straegey
Bought 2 longs in hopes of March-3 RBA cut around the .67-.71 area by then
You can see an the image below where I went long twice. My first move at .65135 was a disaster, but that's OK I held it. I'm also not worrying about it, because I was probably gonna buy it when it got back up there anyways.
I also acted on the support line, I waited to see some strength and went for it @ .63754. After I bought it, it took off.
Im looking to sell around March 3rd when the RBA is expected a rate cut of around 75 bp. Hopefully by that time AUD/USD will be around the .67-.71 area. And will gain about 700ish pips  But will also be playing it by ear because the daily 100 SMA is at .66651
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02-22-2009, 02:39 PM
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aus/usd
Will be interesting to see the aus/usd over the next week as it has come back and found some support, but is in reasonable down trend short/med term..... if we break this support and the .62 area we may be on the way to re testing our lows. but anything could happen from this point, i personally remain bearish with dropping metals, slightly lower gold production. the rba cut realistically is going to be small if at all and i think the market will be dissapointed.... the chairman of rba was leaning towards keeping the interest rate at about these levels so we could cut in the future if need be, somthing not many countries have any more... i think 50bp max... probally already factored in, any less and we could be in trouble over the short term. i think their is more damage to come....
johnny
Last edited by johnnyboy24; 02-22-2009 at 02:43 PM..
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02-22-2009, 11:40 PM
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My sources are telling me 75 bp. Guess were gonna have to wait and see what happends
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02-24-2009, 01:25 PM
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EURAUD
Can anyone post what the swap spreads are saying about interest rate cuts for the EURUSD and AUDUSD?
If you think that this stock market rally has legs as I do this may be a good time to short the EURAUD since the AUD moves faster than the EUR against the USD as of late when you have declining risk aversion. The BOA seems more likely to be stingy with interest rate cuts than the ECB IMO. Plus you don't have the overhang of Eastern Europe in the AUD.
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02-27-2009, 02:34 PM
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Bloomberg's consensus has economists forecasting a 25 bp rate cut from the RBA early next Wednesday. Swaps are pricing in a 155% probability of a quarter point cut which means they are pushing for a significant chance of a half point move.
Overnight index swaps on EUR and AUD are showing some interesting things. The outlook for the ECB is fading even though they ended up passing over a cut earlier this month. The RBA outlook on the other hand is actually improving. This is once again widening the swap spread on one month euro and aussie instruments.
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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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02-27-2009, 02:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
Bloomberg's consensus has economists forecasting a 25 bp rate cut from the RBA early next Wednesday. Swaps are pricing in a 155% probability of a quarter point cut which means they are pushing for a significant chance of a half point move.
Overnight index swaps on EUR and AUD are showing some interesting things. The outlook for the ECB is fading even though they ended up passing over a cut earlier this month. The RBA outlook on the other hand is actually improving. This is once again widening the swap spread on one month euro and aussie instruments.
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I have never looked at these graphs JK. How much of a cut are the swaps pricing in for the EUR? What would this mean for the EURAUD? |
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agriculture, aud, aussie, australia, commodity, copper, dollar, gold, kiwi, new zealand, nzd  |
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