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12-04-2008, 11:05 PM
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Nice uptrend on the hourly...and we may get some help with poor US data tomorrow?
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12-05-2008, 12:10 AM
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Based on recent (and by recent, I mean the last two months) past, bad US data means bad equity performance, and bad AUD/USD performance as a result. So I'm not sure how that will help.
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12-05-2008, 09:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivanovich
Based on recent (and by recent, I mean the last two months) past, bad US data means bad equity performance, and bad AUD/USD performance as a result. So I'm not sure how that will help.
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Good call! |
12-05-2008, 10:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by popzcamelx
Hi everyone,
re Aus interest rate cut, I am not suprised that the RBA decided to cut rates more than 75 points, and as a result, I had put some money towards it, hoping for it to go down.
It did end up going down, but not enough to hit my limit buy (Maybe I was being too greedy). Then by the time I got home from work to close my position and keep some of the profit, the AUD went up heaps, so I decided to hold on to it. Then when I made some little profit, i closed my position disappointed. I was hoping the AUD would drop a lot more, but maybe I started selling too late.
Also because the RBA indicated sth along the lines of not cutting that much in the future, the AUD held up.
*disappointed*
At least I made some money from NZD falling, and now eyeing NZD for tomorrow's rate cut.
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I think the more important thing in this trade was not that you hit your ultimate target; but that you have learned how it is responding to different fundamental influences and are now better able to position next time. This is good trade analysis.
As for interest rates, carry doesn't really seem to be a consideration at this point so the sensitivity of price action from these pairs to general risk appetite through carry unwinding is far lower than it was a year ago.
IMO, the market is slowly pricing in an Australian benchmark rate around 1 percent and New Zealand's at 2.5 percent. If the pace picks up or slows down significantly such that these targets don't seem reasonable, then the market will have to adjust.
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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12-10-2008, 08:39 AM
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Hmmmm...this is about to DROP! 
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12-10-2008, 08:44 AM
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I have a weekly triangle with support @ 0.613 and res currently @ 0.664
Bearish for the week?
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12-10-2008, 08:58 AM
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NZDUSD
Ascending triangle Daily,
Descending triangle weekly.
Bearish for the week?
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12-11-2008, 04:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
Nice uptrend on the hourly...and we may get some help with poor US data tomorrow?
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your chart shows that the pair should go down to touch the 63s again at least for one time before it can go up again . |
12-11-2008, 10:27 AM
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If you think this dollar reversal is the real deal, the commodity bloc may be the best place to trade it right now.
Looking at AUDUSD, it is made a very clear break from its wedge and the follow through has been relatively tame - meaning a lot more room to move. At the same time, there are few major levels of resistance above, so any bullish momentum that develops with time will be unencumbered.
Alternatively, if you think this was just a false break to relieve pressure, NZDUSD would be a good place to get in. It is testing resistance now (its wedge had already lost its influence a few days ago) and congestion is heavy further above.
What do you guys think? True breakout and what is the better technical and fundamental option?
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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12-15-2008, 12:41 PM
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It seems EURUSD and GBPUSD have made another break against the US dollar, but the commodity bloc is holding back. Though there is the probability for it, I do not think we will see another major trend develop into through the turn-of-the-year / holiday period.
However, that doesn't mean we won't see a short-term breakout. We are getting very high volatility across the majors, and other pairs have broken into far greater ranges. The 350 points NZDUSD has to work with right now is too tight; and technicals are too prominent.
What does everyone else think? Breakout this week?
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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12-16-2008, 12:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
It seems EURUSD and GBPUSD have made another break against the US dollar, but the commodity bloc is holding back. Though there is the probability for it, I do not think we will see another major trend develop into through the turn-of-the-year / holiday period.
However, that doesn't mean we won't see a short-term breakout. We are getting very high volatility across the majors, and other pairs have broken into far greater ranges. The 350 points NZDUSD has to work with right now is too tight; and technicals are too prominent.
What does everyone else think? Breakout this week?
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There goes NZDUSD. This is the first confirmed true sign of a reversal from these comm bloc pair.
A good sign that technicals can have an important influence on price action, AUDUSD wouldn't get a similar upside breakout partially due to to the fact that resistance wasn't a clear and concise with that pair as it was with the kiwi dollar (though I'm sure Australian data likely played a hand in dampening the drive as well).
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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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12-17-2008, 07:35 PM
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Any body have any thoughts on a top to this rebound in the NZDUSD?
I've been in from just over .53 and can't decide whether to hold it through the fluctuations for the carry interest or take the profit at a top and dive back in when dips back down...??
I would think it must be fairly close to a top but also wary that it might have a little bit further to push first? Anyone have any thoughts? I am fairly new to this |
12-18-2008, 11:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BenFM
Any body have any thoughts on a top to this rebound in the NZDUSD?
I've been in from just over .53 and can't decide whether to hold it through the fluctuations for the carry interest or take the profit at a top and dive back in when dips back down...??
I would think it must be fairly close to a top but also wary that it might have a little bit further to push first? Anyone have any thoughts? I am fairly new to this |
That is quite a good trade you have played.
As for where it is heading from here, that is a very hard question for anyone to answer considering how volatile the dollar has been recently.
Personally, I would have very little concern for the carry, as that is a mere fraction of the capital gains you can make or lose in just a few points of price action in the pair itself.
Do you see NZDUSD continuing to rise from here. If so, it would be worth holding on to. If you think it is stalling, you can book profit now and get back in when the market starts heading higher once again.
Liquidity will be very low for the next few weeks and volatility could thereby be leveraged. It's best to err on the side of caution.
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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12-18-2008, 01:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BenFM
Any body have any thoughts on a top to this rebound in the NZDUSD?
I've been in from just over .53 and can't decide whether to hold it through the fluctuations for the carry interest or take the profit at a top and dive back in when dips back down...??
I would think it must be fairly close to a top but also wary that it might have a little bit further to push first? Anyone have any thoughts? I am fairly new to this |
I agree with John. Next week raises doubts in terms of liquidity. I took profits at 0.6001 earlier in the morning and basically staying on the sidelines trading EUR for now. |
12-18-2008, 08:29 PM
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Thanks for the comments, i ended up raising my stop to .5950 while it was hovering around .6030-ish as I felt its risk at those levels was too high and the comment that the carry interest was minimal compared to the capital gains being true especially with current volatility, which was lucky as it dropped to .58 overnight...looks like its heading back down for a bit...
I take it the doubts around liquidity in the market are due to people going on holidays thus less people trading? Or are your comments specific to this pair?
thank you |
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