just cashed out @.91150 for a nice 115 pip profit.

If prices can push through the red resistance line, especially during a week of heavy news releases, it may offer a tradeable opportunity. Scalpers know that during a heavy schedule of releases...the energy to break trend lines may not exist and create scalping opportunities.

If prices break up, wait for a retest of the back side of the red line.

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Jeremy, I didn't know that about news weeks and scalping. Thanks for the heads up!

With a heavy slate of news releases like we have this week, many times the market will trade quietly ahead of and inbetween the releases as big money chooses not to commit to new positions until afterwards. This provides an excellent scalping opportunity traders. Simply look for support and resistance levels where prices tend to bounce from.

Below is an example on the AUDUSD. It appears the pair is running into resistance around the .9035 level. Divergence is appearing on CCI too. If we get a drop back to the green support line, it could offer a scalping opportunity in this quiet market.

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*Past performance posted by Signal and Systems Providers (“Providers”), is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is made that any account is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particularly trading program. The composite monthly results are primarily hypothetical results of the master demo and its representation of the Providers, though performance results displayed may represent a combination of live and hypothetical results and are not exclusive to either. There are numerous other factors related to markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. In the event that specific trades were simultaneously executed in hypothetical and live, real-time trading, the lesser of the two results will be displayed. There is no guarantee that one applying these methodologies would have the same results as the hypothetically posted. Since trading successfully depends on many elements including but not limited to a trading methodology and a trader's own psychology, the web site does not make any representation whatsoever that the above mentioned trading systems might be or are suitable or that they would be profitable for you. Please realize the risk with any investment and consult investment professionals before proceeding. The trading systems herein described have been developed for sophisticated traders who fully understand the nature and the scope of the risks that are associated with trading. Should you decide to trade any or all of these systems' signals, it is your decision.

Links to third-party sites are provided for your convenience and for informational purposes only. Forex Capital Markets LLC bears no responsibility for the accuracy, content, or any other matter related to the external site or for that of subsequent links, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the use of this or any other content. Such sites are not within our control and may not follow the same privacy, security, or accessibility standards as ours. Please read the linked websites' terms and conditions.

We like the idea of attempting to establish a long position on the cross should the market be able to recover off of the sub-1.6300 Wednesday lows. The weekly chart is very compelling and shows the market in the process of potentially carving out a major base. A bullish hammer close two-weeks back was followed by a strong bullish reversal candle in the previous week, which has ended a sequence of consecutive weekly lower highs. If the market can manage a recovery into the US session back above 1.6300, we will look to buy a break back above 1.6350. STRATEGY: BUY @1.6355 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.6240. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE (5PM ET) ON WEDNESDAY. POSITION SIZE WILL EQUAL 3X EQUITY.

I was smiling in a glass of beer when I wrote that post . The Aussie news drove Sheepy down for a day or so, allowed me to buy another position. You can't beat a weekly MACD cross easily though, and all the other chart configurations that are in place for a good long.

She's belting the hill again, and it's bye-bye to 1.2500 land!

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Took a EUR and GBP/NZD position a while ago. These are paying off well. It's been very choppy trying to trade both the EUR and GBP/AUD pairs. I don't think that the weakness in NZD will be carried over to AUD. It's a good scalp, watch out for the shorts, they're great!!

There is potentially a good supportive cross on 8 hour from the MMA 45, but the MMA 65 is still searching to properly support further down. 1.62950 is a good entry point for the long IMO. I've ordered a small 50k lot at my price just for phun. Stop? Don't need one, it's only a few quid after all, even if it crashes which I doubt. Target? 1.7000. This is the point where in September price just could not rise further, and had to fall.

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This is a real good time to short the NZD. I've gone short NZD/CAD/SGD/SEK etc. Only small lots, 100k a time, and all are paying good pips. Daily/weekly crosses are there for good long-term gains across many currency pairs with NZD.

Time for anyone looking at reasonable profit with the NZD to seek shorts across a broad spread of currencies. The Kiwi was such a beaut!! Man, flying the charts. We all know the rule, what goes up will come down, and what goes down will arise from the depths eventually. The Kiwi has had it's time for now. Boo, as it was such a good tough little currency to trade on the way up huh?

US economist David Hale is currently in Australia on behalf of the CBA (Commonwealth Bank of Australia). He has also met with the RBA.


He expects parity with US by FEB 2010 and a continuation beyond parity until the Chinese economy backfires. He also expects the interest rate to be 4% by FEB, as told to him by RBA.


You can read it here. Just have to get past the first few paragraphs on Aussies travelling overseas enmass exodus coz of high dollar to get to the juicy bits.

Dollar driving overseas travel

Hope your weekend is as ace as mine!

Milestones for this week are......I haven't had a fag in 25 days and Wazza (my Texan boyfriend - he hasn't had one either) and I had our one year anniversary of living in Apollo Bay on 6th Nov.

the phoenix

If David Hale is right and AUD/US reaches parity by Feb. Where will the GBP/AUD be in Feb?

Today we have AUD/US buying 91.5
GBP/AUD buying 1.811
GBP/US buying 1.66

Parity AUD/US is 8.5 cents away.

In Feb, will the GBP/US look more like 1.55- 1.57 or 1.75 - 1.77

In Feb will the GBP/AUD look more like 1.70 or 1.90

I've changed my view from 2-3 weeks ago. I did see the GBP/AUD going to 1.60's easily and possibly as low as 1.50. Now my view is unsure to leaning towards pound being 1.90 by Feb.......which in turn would make the GBP/US pair look like 1.75-1.77.

I had been expecting the pound to be punished this week with the expansion of the QE and bad GDP figures both actual and estimated coming in worse. This didn't transpire and so I now see the pound edging higher from its current 1.81 to the AUD. (thats a bit of a shame given I sold the pound at 1.75......oops! My kamakaze approach to tidying up bets on the wrong side - place a bet twice the size going in the opposite direction until you make more than you've lost - I dunno if thats a sound business judgement, but thats how I'm doing it)

Whatcha think?

the phoenix

Well, I think that GBP/AUD will hover around between 1.7900 to 1.8350 area for a long time, 1.9000 might be on the cards by next year, yes, but the weekly cross is still very strong. The problem with AUD and NZD is that they have to also try and keep export prices of meat etc competitive. In the UK for example, frozen NZ lamb is more expensive than fresh British lol!!

Also I do see the possibility of GBP being up to 1.7500 against the USD. Also the Euro being 1.6000.

With your tidying up bets and doubling in the opposite direction, I think we've all been there at some point in time. On my broker's platform I have most currency pairs in the opposite format. For example, CAD/USD USD/CAD, EUR/USD USD/EUR. This is the same for me with AUD/GBP, GBP/AUD. If I can't see a long on one, I can see a short on the other, boy this helps a lot. Also, try either a very small lot first, say a 5 or 10k lot, or run it on a demo platform with no risk.

I think it will be a very long time before GBP/AUD sees 2.00 again this is because the RBA is still more likely to raise interest rates another 3 or 4 times before the BoE even think about raising its cash rate and even when they begin to, the AUD will most likely be maintaining it's strength from carry trades especially with the JPY. Having said that, any sign of a double dip recession or if risk aversion picks up again the AUD will be the first currency to be punished, as it was last year.

Funny how any time AUD falls dramatically lately, it manages to pare those loses rather quickly. CAD and the NZD are struggling to keep pace.

Looking ahead to next week, I believe any drop in the unemployment rate is going to see AUD/USD test the yearly high of 93.25, AUD/CAD to test parity and EUR/AUD to drop below 1.60.

AUD/NZD is a rocket to the moon. The Kiwi is sagging, also against EUR and GBP. Looks like the little Kiwi has had it's day, unlike the Aussie.

The recovery of GBP/CAD has been dramatic, completely V shaped. One currency leeches of another to keep comparitive strength. For sure we'll see USD/CAD exceed 1.1000. That will make Mr. Carnie very happy indeed I'm sure. For a long time he's been complaining about the ongoing strength of the Loonie.

Like you say, any drop in the unemployment rate next week is going to be good news for sure for AUD. I like to keep on the right side of the Aussie dollar. Always look for the long......it's become one of the easier currencies to trade now, short on most everything else.

Love it! yeah when I was on demo thats how I got myself out of trouble - now its for real - time to put the philososphy to the test. Still unsure where it is headed so will just wait and see for now. But when its time to pull the rug I will will probably do it 4 lots.

the phoenix

Yeah......I am holding for now hedged both ways until it goes one way or the other. True...AUD will be back at 5% before UK or the US for that matter lifts at all.

yeah it can take 8 months for the AUD to reach the 90's and 2 months to crash back to 60's.

Well lets hope your right with the unemployment, by your reakonings then the pound should also get back to the 1.70's.

the phoenix