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11-08-2009, 02:22 PM
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"Strong US recovery biggest threat to Australia" - David Hale
This is a super dooper article in The Age today.
Strong US recovery biggest threat to Australia
Its about China's rise as the worlds largest base metal consumer and how the Australian dollar is seen as a proxy for China's growth. It also discusses how the AUD will fall from parity to about 85cents in 9 months to a year from now.
If only I had a crystal ball too!
the phoenix |
11-08-2009, 08:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the phoenix
This is a super dooper article in The Age today.
Strong US recovery biggest threat to Australia
Its about China's rise as the worlds largest base metal consumer and how the Australian dollar is seen as a proxy for China's growth. It also discusses how the AUD will fall from parity to about 85cents in 9 months to a year from now.
If only I had a crystal ball too!
the phoenix |
Thanks phoenix, nice reading. well... that is consistent with other analysts saying that US stocks will correct by next year and the USD will get some strength...
A.
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11-09-2009, 02:58 PM
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GBPAUD break out or fakeout?
How are you arod? That was an interesting article. China is definitely running the show with global monetary policy. A "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. seems highly unlikely to me but who knows. The Fed is petal to the metal and the retailers defying all expectations.
240 minute chart.
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11-09-2009, 05:31 PM
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The AUD/NZD just hit its 38.2% fib on the daily. Price hit 50 a few days ago. If the market goes higher, I think it will, then this pair could trade lower. I have noticed that when the dollar is down this pair goes sideways or down.
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11-09-2009, 08:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qed
How are you arod? That was an interesting article. China is definitely running the show with global monetary policy. A "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. seems highly unlikely to me but who knows. The Fed is petal to the metal and the retailers defying all expectations.
240 minute chart.
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Hi qed, how are you doing? I am ok... taking care of my professional job and travels... trading when possible... everything is alright.
usually I don't look at GBPAUD, but.. thanks for the tip... I would like to see bearish cross on the MACD first... on daily chart. 1.8080/90 area could be better to go short...
Best,
A.
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11-10-2009, 03:36 PM
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more rate rises
This article discusses 3 interest rate hikes for the AUD in Dec, Jan and Feb each of .25%.
Unemployment figures get released at 11.30am Thursday (Australia time) and this should also impact the decision.
Interest rate hike to follow jobs rate rise
On the GBP/AUD - I am quietly hoping the figures for the aussie are all positive re employment this week, while I am hoping the figures for the pound come out miserable......(momentarily so I can pick up my shorts way down at 1.75...LOL
the phoenix |
11-10-2009, 09:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the phoenix
This article discusses 3 interest rate hikes for the AUD in Dec, Jan and Feb each of .25%.
Unemployment figures get released at 11.30am Thursday (Australia time) and this should also impact the decision.
Interest rate hike to follow jobs rate rise
On the GBP/AUD - I am quietly hoping the figures for the aussie are all positive re employment this week, while I am hoping the figures for the pound come out miserable......(momentarily so I can pick up my shorts way down at 1.75...LOL
the phoenix |
yes, I read it this morning... well... we have carry trade for a while...
A.
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11-11-2009, 07:25 AM
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SELL AUD/USD ON A BREAK BELOW 0.9285
Remains very well bid on any form of a dip with the underlying structure still grossly constructive. The market has most recently broken to fresh 2009 highs beyond 0.9330. However, given the overbought weekly studies, we are not entirely convinced of the current recovery rally and would not rule out the possibility for a major double top formation with the market failing to materially extend gains beyond 0.9330 and rolling back over through neckline support at 0.8905. The daily RSI has failed to confirm the latest bout of strength and we look for a break back below the current daily low at 0.9285 to confirm bias. STRATEGY: SELL @0.9280 (**Market currently above 0.9280; we are looking to sell downside break**) FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 0.9410. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE ON WEDNESDAY. POSITION SIZE WILL BE 3X LEVERAGED.
All my best,
Joel
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11-11-2009, 12:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joel Kruger
Remains very well bid on any form of a dip with the underlying structure still grossly constructive. The market has most recently broken to fresh 2009 highs beyond 0.9330. However, given the overbought weekly studies, we are not entirely convinced of the current recovery rally and would not rule out the possibility for a major double top formation with the market failing to materially extend gains beyond 0.9330 and rolling back over through neckline support at 0.8905. The daily RSI has failed to confirm the latest bout of strength and we look for a break back below the current daily low at 0.9285 to confirm bias. STRATEGY: SELL @0.9280 (**Market currently above 0.9280; we are looking to sell downside break**) FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 0.9410. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY NY CLOSE ON WEDNESDAY. POSITION SIZE WILL BE 3X LEVERAGED.
All my best,
Joel
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sean
why That joel has saying the Aus is Bear now..
00:30
AUD AUD Employment Change (OCT) Expection is High..
so what is your Call..
thanks
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11-11-2009, 12:53 PM
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Anyone trading NZDUSD
Just wondering if anyone following this forum is actively trading the NZDUSD at present?
I started shorting this one just before it peaked a few weeks ago and am now long on it. Any opinions on how this will play out over the next couple of months?
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11-11-2009, 01:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VINCY BALBOA
sean
why That joel has saying the Aus is Bear now..
00:30
AUD AUD Employment Change (OCT) Expection is High..
so what is your Call..
thanks
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Vincy, you'd have to ask Joel that one. I'm sure he's got his reasons. I've been on the long side due to the uptrend and because its got the strongest fundamentals out of the G-7 nations.
That may change when stocks crumble..but until then, I'm long AUD/USD.
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Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
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11-11-2009, 01:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FORESTFX
Just wondering if anyone following this forum is actively trading the NZDUSD at present?
I started shorting this one just before it peaked a few weeks ago and am now long on it. Any opinions on how this will play out over the next couple of months?
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I have been trading NZD/USD up until recently. Now I've shifted more to AUD/USD because of the recent strength in AUD/NZD which shows that AUD is stronger than NZD.
Also, AUD has had 2 rate increases and New Zealand claims they are holding off on rate increases until next year sometime.
So that gives a fundamental bias towards Australia too.
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The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
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11-11-2009, 01:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
I have been trading NZD/USD up until recently. Now I've shifted more to AUD/USD because of the recent strength in AUD/NZD which shows that AUD is stronger than NZD.
Also, AUD has had 2 rate increases and New Zealand claims they are holding off on rate increases until next year sometime.
So that gives a fundamental bias towards Australia too.
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Yes, i can see that interest may well be moving more towards AUDUSD but i am thinking that after this period of consolidation is over then a retest of 0.76, or close to, is possible.
I am certainly no expert trader with many years of successful under my belt but i cannot see how such a powerful uptrend can end so suddenly. I was expecting a pullback but now i am expecting it to head north a little more, the NZD is afterall still the fundamentally stronger currency allbeit a little overbought. |
11-11-2009, 04:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FORESTFX
Yes, i can see that interest may well be moving more towards AUDUSD but i am thinking that after this period of consolidation is over then a retest of 0.76, or close to, is possible.
I am certainly no expert trader with many years of successful under my belt but i cannot see how such a powerful uptrend can end so suddenly. I was expecting a pullback but now i am expecting it to head north a little more, the NZD is afterall still the fundamentally stronger currency allbeit a little overbought.
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Australia actually has stronger fundamentals...higher yields...a positive GDP, low unemployment....more positive comments from their central bank vs. that of New Zealand, etc.
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The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
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11-11-2009, 04:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
Australia actually has stronger fundamentals...higher yields...a positive GDP, low unemployment....more positive comments from their central bank vs. that of New Zealand, etc.
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Yes i agree, and sorry for not making myself clear, i was refering to it being fundamentally stronger than the USD. Surely the up will prevail for a little longer??? |
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