|
|
 |
|
11-12-2009, 02:29 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 29
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by qed
How are you arod? That was an interesting article. China is definitely running the show with global monetary policy. A "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. seems highly unlikely to me but who knows. The Fed is petal to the metal and the retailers defying all expectations.
240 minute chart.
|
G'day qed,
Thanks for the chart. Would you be able to do another one now and see where the gbp/aud is now headed?
Fingers crossed for a 1.73!
Cheers
the phoenix |
11-12-2009, 02:41 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 29
|
|
|
Another rate hike in December! boo-yah!
For those trading the Aud/us thought ya might like this one.
Another rate rise 'a step closer' - Yahoo!7 Finance News
hmmmm.....currently enjoying a "White Rabbit" - which is a Dark Ale. Healesville beer - yum!
the phoenix |
11-12-2009, 07:12 AM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 843
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by the phoenix
On the GBP/AUD - I am quietly hoping the figures for the aussie are all positive re employment this week, while I am hoping the figures for the pound come out miserable......(momentarily so I can pick up my shorts way down at 1.75...LOL
the phoenix
|
My 1.7709 target was hit. Took half off, and letting the rest ride. |
11-12-2009, 07:14 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 843
|
|
|
YUAN
It is widely rumored that China is about to revalue their currency. Isn't that a defacto tightening of monetary policy? Could this dampen commodity demand? How might it affect the AUDUSD?
|
11-12-2009, 09:47 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 843
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by the phoenix
G'day qed,
Thanks for the chart. Would you be able to do another one now and see where the gbp/aud is now headed?
Fingers crossed for a 1.73!
Cheers
the phoenix
|
Well, I don't really have any insight on that, only opinion. The trade that I posted comes from John Carter's book "Mastering the Trade". I think he claims that a box trade has a high probability of working. And I believe he has a target price that is the height of the box and a stop that is also the height of the box. So the profit/loss is 1 to 1. This trade happened to work. |
11-12-2009, 12:37 PM
|
 |
DailyFX Power Course Instructor
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,818
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by qed
Well, I don't really have any insight on that, only opinion. The trade that I posted comes from John Carter's book "Mastering the Trade". I think he claims that a box trade has a high probability of working. And I believe he has a target price that is the height of the box and a stop that is also the height of the box. So the profit/loss is 1 to 1. This trade happened to work.
|
qed, hey...good to see you posting here. Hey, could you post an example of one of those box trades? That would be interesting....even if it's not related to AUD or NZD.
__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
|
11-12-2009, 03:26 PM
|
|
DailyFX Power Course Instructor
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,818
|
|
Been viewing the forums but have never posted? Check out this short video on how to get started:
DailyFX Forum Registration Video: YouTube - DailyFX Forum Registration Video
__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
|
11-12-2009, 05:51 PM
|
|
Registered User
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 3
|
|
|
I agree with Sean, I am long on AUDUSD as well...
I entered into this position last night at 0.9233
RSI has reached oversold levels, weekly, daily, hourly charts are all trending upwards, S2 pivot point touched
Fundamentals are strong as discussed in previous posts
The chart below is an hourly chart
|
11-12-2009, 07:17 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 843
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
qed, hey...good to see you posting here. Hey, could you post an example of one of those box trades? That would be interesting....even if it's not related to AUD or NZD.
|
Here is a 15 minute chart of the EURUSD. You wait for two tests of your upper and lower trend lines. Once you have those you lablel the four points and you have your box. Then you wait for a retrace into the box from the last trend line test of at least 25%. After you have your retrace you place buy and sell stops one tick above and below the box. Once you have a fill your price target is the width of the box and you leave your other stop order as a stop loss. In this case it breaks out of the bottom of the box and the profit target is hit. The risk reward is one to one and according to Carter this price pattern has a high probability of success.
The shadows don't appear very well on this chart. For whatever reason my charts always show up as atachments so they lack clarity. |
11-13-2009, 01:07 PM
|
|
DailyFX Power Course Instructor
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,818
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by qed
Here is a 15 minute chart of the EURUSD. You wait for two tests of your upper and lower trend lines. Once you have those you lablel the four points and you have your box. Then you wait for a retrace into the box from the last trend line test of at least 25%. After you have your retrace you place buy and sell stops one tick above and below the box. Once you have a fill your price target is the width of the box and you leave your other stop order as a stop loss. In this case it breaks out of the bottom of the box and the profit target is hit. The risk reward is one to one and according to Carter this price pattern has a high probability of success.
The shadows don't appear very well on this chart. For whatever reason my charts always show up as atachments so they lack clarity.
|
So are they looking to trade the range inside of the box...or trying to define a breakout point outside of the box?
__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
|
11-13-2009, 03:41 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 843
|
|
|
GBPAUD
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
So are they looking to trade the range inside of the box...or trying to define a breakout point outside of the box?
|
Sorry Sean, I guess I may not have been clear enough. They are strictly buying or selling a break out either up or down outside of the box. No entries are made inside the box. Here is another trade unfolding in the last hour of today's trading. It is in the GBPAUD 60 minute chart. Will probably have to wait until Monday to see how this trade works out. |
11-13-2009, 04:17 PM
|
|
DailyFX Power Course Instructor
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,818
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by qed
Sorry Sean, I guess I may not have been clear enough. They are strictly buying or selling a break out either up or down outside of the box. No entries are made inside the box. Here is another trade unfolding in the last hour of today's trading. It is in the GBPAUD 60 minute chart. Will probably have to wait until Monday to see how this trade works out.
|
I see. Great stuff. Who's book did you say it was in?
__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
|
11-14-2009, 12:40 AM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 160
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
Australia actually has stronger fundamentals...higher yields...a positive GDP, low unemployment....more positive comments from their central bank vs. that of New Zealand, etc.
|
Shame that AUD/NZD trade didn't go all the way Sean. 4 hour cross shows it shorting now.....boo. Made some pips from 1.2500 though. Daily weekly says it can still go up quite a way. Back to 1.2500 first.
Last edited by Tigger; 11-14-2009 at 12:44 AM..
|
11-15-2009, 02:19 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 843
|
|
|
"Box Trade"
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sean Hyman
I see. Great stuff. Who's book did you say it was in?
|
It was in John Carter's book "Mastering the Trade". I have made a few of these trades but have never recorded the results and have no idea what the probabilities are. Stupid for not tracking them. You can use this method on many time frames though. And it can be surprising how many of these patterns turn up if you get used to watching in multiple time frames.
Of course there are some nuances to his box trade which are detailed in his book.
One of the originators of the "Box Trade" was the famed ballet dancer Nicholas Darvas, author of the book "How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market".
"My only sound reason for buying a stock is that it is rising in price. If that is happening, no other reason is required. If that is not happening, no other reason is worth considering." |
11-16-2009, 11:32 AM
|
|
DailyFX Power Course Instructor
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 2,818
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tigger
Shame that AUD/NZD trade didn't go all the way Sean. 4 hour cross shows it shorting now.....boo. Made some pips from 1.2500 though. Daily weekly says it can still go up quite a way. Back to 1.2500 first.
|
Tigger, so far the AUD/NZD uptrend remains intact. I'm still long so far.
See the chart below.
__________________
The DailyFX Forums have over 75,000 members, and many discussions going on at once. If you aren’t sure where to get started, email me with your questions and I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction. I look forward to hearing from you.
Sean Hyman - DailyFX Forum Moderator - shyman@dailyfx.com
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
