Hi all and thanks for all your input.
In my chart I see "too clearly" a top. Head and shoulder on hourly chart with trend twice tested and bullish trap upon it. Head and shoulders on daily chart (still forming) with orice going to test the trend. Rising wedge forming...
Is there someone seeing the same?
Thanks in advance.
Sorry for my poor English.

Update to my AUDUSD long trade from the other day.. Price has shown some weakness today and returned to my entry area triggering my stop loss which had been set to break even so I am now out of the trade... I was able to book profits on one position for 100 pips during yesterdays upward rally, but the that is all... I will keep an eye on things now and see how it goes.. Price is breaking beneath the up trend line on the daily chart so it looks like there is potential for further weakness.. Still I say be looking for the long opportunities, price action can still drag higher... There really is no confirmed top in place yet...

Attached Images

 

I'm still practicing. I wrote a program that combines a tenkan sen, kijun sen and slow stochastics, so that's why the 4 hour chart has buy and sell signals.
It doesnt do so hot when things get bumpy, but I know that a crossover has occurred and I can look at the stochastics and make my own decision.

Anyway, I went short a few days ago and just wondering if any of you old salts think my limit has a chance. The 4 hour now has a doji after a huge down candle and the powercourse lessons tell me this is a good time to go long, not short.

Here's my setup for your amusement.

Attached Thumbnails

 

wow - the aussie really took a dive today - i was down 80 pips in 1 minute at 1 stage!!

i heard it was dubai being in excessive debt that caused this - however, i am not to sure exactly how this impacts the Aussie.

Can someone please explain this to me?

The AUDUSD broke down through the long term up trend line on the daily chart and closed the week below the line giving bearish confirmation.. Things are looking pretty weak here and we could see some more down side action for the pair... Price bounced upward from fibonacci support at .8942 to close the day, lets see if that level will continue to hold as support.... Right now it looks very iffy.... //--- If the level gives way, the next level of support is not until .8400 so bears keep a close eye open for a short opportunity if price keeps dropping below fib support at .8942...

Attached Images

  

Thanks for the chart Brad. Have been short AUD everything this week, i.e. long eur/aud (a beast that will not suffer shorts) etc. AUD/JPY has been amazing, as has AUD/CHF. Little Aussie is losing to GBP and everything. Looks like down big style unfortunately on daily everywhere.

Hopefully you S&R'd. Personally I've sold this pair hard. With the AUD weakness across-the-board, it's hard times for AUD.

G'day Brad,

The Dubai fiasco affects the Aussie because the Aussie is considered "risky asset."

Whenever the financial world has a hiccup there is a "flight to safety" - ie US and Yen go up and pretty much everything falls to these two currencies. The Aussie fell the most because it has risen the most. Like the phoenix, the Aussie will rise from its 89.5 cent ashes and continue its march forward.

Especially so this week because on Tuesday the reserve bank decides upon another interest rate hike. Whilst, obviously there are no guarantees - there are psychic abilities....LOL.

If you bought more Aussie at 89 or 90 cents....(currently at 90.6).......as the Dubai World sorts itself out and now considerd not that drastic.......well therre will be a return to risky assets, the interest rate will go up .25% and quite possibly .5% because the reserve doesn't meet again until February....so no Jan hike is possible.

Soooooo........my humble opinion is......buy Aussie now since its at 90 cents rather than the 93 cents during last week. The interst rate will go up, the aussie will go up too. Take note of the rate just prior to the release of the interest rate decision. If the rate goes up (interest) by .25% I'd let the Aussie go up 1.5 cents , if its a .5% hike, let it go up about 2.5 cents and then close ya trade....take the profits and buy ya mum a great Xmas pressie!

Same when Lehman collapsed last year triggering off the "meltdown" in stockmarkets across the board. Aussie fell from 95 cents to 66cents in a matter of months.....I think 2 and a half!

IMHO the Aussie won't see a major fall unless there is another collapse of the stock markets.

Then......for some extra profits......once you feel the Aussie has plateaued after the interest rate .......sell the Aussie because it will lose some of the steam........it will fall by at least a cent from its peak afyer the interest rate decision.

If the Reserve holds rates, I'd sell the Aussie.

My guess is the Aussie will appreciate on Monday and Tuesday morning to about 91.8 cents prior to the interest rate ....so can buy now.......should have a cent up ya sleeve come Tuesday at 2.30pm Melbounre time, if the rate is unchanged, sell what you're holding.......but also then sell the Aussie and get a few cents profit and then close out the trade.

ps......anytime the world has a scare......sell the Aussie and the Kiwi......to the Yen or Dollar........keep an eye on world stock markets.....if they are falling by 3 or 4 % - you can bet the Aussie will fall 3 to 4 cents.....or to the yen even more. (Yen has gone from 82 down to 77.......dollar went from 93 to 89..........making a better profit or a better loss on the yen)

cheers

the phoenix

Daily is shot Phoenix. Expect massive falls. Well beyond 0.8000. Aussie won't recover for a long time. Kiwi is 100% a platypus.

G'day Tigger,

I don't follow charts or daily's and truthfully don't really know about them and how that works. I purely trade on how the economy is and how its expected to fair in the future.......hence speculation, or gambling if you prefer.

I'll have to agree to disagree and I have my money where my mouth is and I am expecting an interest rate rise of .25% and got my fingers crossed for a .5% HIKE.

Even with a rate rise, I will ride it up, but then close it out because there really won't be any momentum to keep it rising much further until we have more rate hikes.....and that can't happen until Feb next year at the earliest.

People might find these two articles interesting....or not.

RBA likely to lift rates in December - Yahoo!7 Finance News

Aussie market to rebound on Monday - Yahoo!7 Finance News

My guess is 94 cents and then I am ready to close it out and go surfing.

All the best to everyone and I'm going to Fleetwood Mac on Tuesday night....woohoo!

the phoenix

Carry trade has unwound Phoenix. Aussie can shove the interest rate to wherever, Market is worried. GBP/AUD. Trade from long side to target 1.9000, that's my minimum target. In worrying times Aussie and Kiwi first ones to be hit BIG style. Market buying GBP, EUR and USD.

Please do NOT put your money where your mouth is, look at the reality of the weekly cross and what is going on. Pretty please gal. Price has now fallen below 4 hour MAE250 trend line. 6 hour 250, price bounced off it, but after a small rise this week will 100% fall through. Once through on 6 hour, it's impossible for it to come back for a very long time. Trend is broken. New trend must be down.

Fleetwood Mac...grrrreat, have a wonderful time.

Just short Aussie and Kiwi pdq for excellent pips until February.

thanks for the input guys- i use a dollar cost averaging strategy and currently hold an overall long position at .9100 - it has been very effective but when big news like this dubai incident occurs- it can throw things out

Personally i have set my target to breakeven at .9100. I want to exit my position as I am not confident in where the market is heading...

Points to consider
1) Daily technicals shows a clear break of trend
2) Analysts say the chance of a 0.25% interest rate has fallen to 47% from 71% (from memory)
3) Australian banks 'apparently' have little exposure to Dubai credit crisis
4) Fundamentals for Aussie have been very strong - last week has been a bit of an upset though

Phoenix - With the collapse of lehman brothers - wouldnt this have a bearish impact of the USD? I thought a major reason of AUD falling to .6600 was due to the 400 point rate cuts

Mate, just short at max 0.9150, any longs will cost you money. Look at the charts yourself and decide to go short. Easy. Target 0.8000 from here on a 500k lot and make money. That's my opinion, as my charts tell me to do this. Well, if you don't, it's your problem and I've got your money through you trading the wrong way. MMAs' chopping price on daily on all currency pairs with AUD, so this must weaken considerably.

i want to exit my long position ASAP - then wait 4 the RBA announcement this tuesday for direction...