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2012 Week2! INTRA-DAY OUTLOOK- USD/JPY- 76.98

(09 Jan 2012 01:01 GMT)

Despite dollar's recovery from last Wednesday's low at 76.61, subsequent retreat from 77.34 suggests aforesaid correction is over and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 76.58/61, break would extend decline from October's high at 79.55 to 76.33 but 76.11/ should hold and bring recovery later.

On the upside, above 77.34 would signal a temporary low has possibly been made but above 77.56 is neeed to confirm this view and yield gain to 78.04.

Market Review - 10/09/2011 01:20 GMT

Euro tumbles on heightened concerns over Greek default and ECB Stark's resignation

The single currency continued its descent this week and tumbled sharply to a 10 year-low against the yen and to a 6-month low against the greenback on speculation over the possibility of a Greece default and the resignation of European Central Bank executive board member and also its chief economist Jurgen Stark.

Bloomberg reported that the German government may set up a fund to recapitalize its banks if Greece cannot meet its debt commitments. This news reignited worries over the potential of a Greek default and rattled German and European equities.

Although the single currency recovered briefly to an intra-day high at 1.3936 in Asia, renewed selling pressured the pair to 1.3789 in European morning on worries about Greek default. Later, the single currency extended its decline in NY morning after the news of Stark's resignation, spurring rumours of conflicts over the central bank's bond buying programme as Stark was opposed to ECB bond purchase of struggling euro-zone countries. The pair eventually reached a 6-month low of 1.3627 in NY afternoon before staging a recovery after supportive comments from Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos who said 'rumour of imminent Greek default is speculation game in bad taste against euro.'

Active cross selling of euro vs other currencies pressured the single currency as eur/jpy, eur/gbp and eur/chf tumbled from 107.90 to a 10 year-low of 105.30, 0.8720 to to a 5-month low of 0.8598 and 1.2187 to 1.2056 respectively.

Versus the yen, the dollar traded narrowly in Asia and then rose above Tuesday's high of 77.73 to a 1-month high of 77.86 on risk aversion together with dollar's broad-based strength. However, active cross buying of the yen against other currencies sent the pair to an intra-day low of 77.10 in NY morning before staging a strong rebound on short-covering.

Although cable briefly rose to 1.5991 in Asian morning, the British pound fell sharply in tandem with euro to 1.5895 in European session. Despite sterling's recovery to 1.5974, renewed selling sent the pair to session low at 1.5845 in NY afternoon before stabilising.

Mounting debt worries in the eurozone sent European and U.S. stocks tumbling on Friday, DJI closed the day at 10992.13, down by 303.68 points or 2.69% whilst European bourses ended the day with steep losses with FTSE-100, CAC-40 and DAX closed down 2.35%, 3.60% and 4.04% respectively.

G7 finance ministers start their 2-day meeting in Marseille, France today, the main agenda at Friday's meeting is to discuss what action to take to prop up the slowing global economy as well as to calm the biggest confidence crisis in financial markets since the global credit crunch.

Data to be released next week :

Japan Domestic CGPI, tertiary industry index, Australia Trade balance on Monday.

U.K. House prices, CPI, RPI, Trade Balance, Australia NAB business, U.S. Import n Export, Fed Budget on Tuesday.

Australia W'pac consumer confi., Japan Capacity utilisation, Ind prodn, Swiss PPI, U.K. Claimant count, ILO unemployment, Avg. earnings, EU Ind prodn, U.S. PPI, Retail sales, Business Inventories on Wednesday.

New Zealand RBNZ rate decision, Japan Tankan Manufacturing, Swiss SNB rate decision, U.K. Retail sales, EU Employment, HICP final, U.S. CPI, Real earnings, Current account, Jobless claims, Capacity utilisation, Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday.

EU Current account, Trade balance, Labour cost, U.S. Net LT TIC flows, U. Michigan survey Prel., NAHB housing mrkt index on Friday.

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Market Review - 07/09/2011 22:00 GMT

Euro maintains a steady bias ahead of Thurday's ECB rate meeting

The single currency briefly rallied in European morning on Wednesday after German Constitutional Court rejected lawsuits aimed at blocking the country's participation in eurozone bailouts, easing worries about eurozone debt crisis.

The single currency edged higher from Australian low at 1.3994 and briefly climbed to session high of 1.4150 after German top court rejected challenges to the participation in ECB rescue funds. Despite euro's strong retreat to 1.4013 in NY morning, active cross buying of euro vs other currencies lifted the pair to 1.4108 in late NY afternoon.

Euro was supported in New York session by the rallies in U.S. and European stock markets as DJI surged by 275.56, or 2.47% to 11414.86. FTSE-100, CAC-40 and DAX rose sharply by 3.14%, 3.63% and 4.07% respectively.

Versus the yen, although the greenback extended its fall from Tuesday's NY high at 77.73 to 77.07 in Asian morning partly due to BOJ's rate decision, the pair staged a minor bounce to 77.37 but retreated to 77.08 in European morning. However, buying interest around 77.00/07 supported the pair to 77.45 at NY midday before retreating.

BoJ kept its overnight call rate unchanged at 0-0.1% and announced 'no new monetary easing steps; economy to resume moderate recovery; output and exports continue to rise; need to watch developments in U.S. economy and Europe sovereign debt problem.'

Although the British pound rose in tandem with euro from Australian low at 1.5938 to session high of 1.6040 in European morning, renewed selling there sent the pair below Tuesday's low at 1.5921 to a marginal low of 1.5919 in NY midday on cross selling of sterling, however, rebound in euro also lifted the pound.

Earlier in European morning, the British pound was pressured as UK Halifax house prices for Aug. was weaker-than-expected at -1.2% m/m and -2.6% 3m y/y versus forecasts of -0.3% and -2.3% respectively.

On the data front, German industrial production was much better than expected at 4.0% m/m and 10.1% y/y vs forecasts of 0.5% and 6.5% respectively. UK Manufacturing output for July was up 0.1% m/m and 1.9% y/y vs forecasts of 0.0% and 1.9% respectively.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Japan Current account Jul, Machinery orders, economic watch, Australia Unemployment, Swiss Unemployment, Germany Trade balance, Import n Export, Current account, U.K. BOE rate decision, Canada Building permits, housing index, trade balance, imports n exports,U.S. Jobless claims.

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Market Review - 06/09/2011 21:59 GMT

Franc plunges broadly as SNB draws line on eur/chf

The Swiss franc tumbled broadly on Tuesday as the Swiss National Bank stated that it would no longer accept a strong franc and prepared to buy foreign currencies in unlimited quantities to maintain its goal of a minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.2000 per euro.

The greenback rallied from 0.7843 to 0.8573 vs the Swiss franc due to SNB's shock decision to fix eur/chf rate at 1.2000. Although dollar retreated to 0.8439 on profit-taking, renewed buying pushed the pair to session intra-day high at 0.8626 in NY afternoon. Eur/chf surged sharply from 1.1022 to 1.2190, the biggest one-day move in history.

Although the single currency edged lower to 1.4038 at Asian midday, price rallied briefly to a high of 1.4281 on active cross buying of eur vs chf but pared its early gain to 1.4028 on risk aversion due to the worries about eurozone debt crisis. Despite euro's recovery to 1.4090 after the release of stronger-than-expected US ISM non-manufacturing data (53.3 vs forecast of 51.0), renewed selling sent the pair to session low at 1.3973 in NY morning before stabilising.

The single currency was pressured by the sharp fall in U.S. and European stock markets. DJI once tumbled by 300 points but eventually pared some of its early losses and closed the day at 11139.30, down by 100.96 or 0.90%. CAC-40 and DAX tanked by 1.13% and 1.00% respectively.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rallied above 77.00 level to 77.69 in the wake of the SNB's decision but the pair retreated sharply to 77.00 in European session before staging a strong rebound to 77.58. Despite dollar's retreat to 77.08 after the release of U.S. ISM non-manufacturing data, renewed buying above 77.00 lifted the pair to an intra-day high at 77.72 on dollar's broad-based buying in NY afternoon.

Although the British pound rose in tandem with euro from 1.6066 to 1.6207 on the SNB news, selling interest pressured the pair to an intra-day low of 1.5921 on broad-based buying of dollar in NY morning

Data to be released on Wednesday include:

U.K. BRC Shop Price Index m/m (Aug), Halifax hse prices, Industrial prod'n, Manufacturing prod'n, Australia GDP, Japan BOJ rate decision,Leading indicators, Germany Industrial prod'n, Canada BoC rate decision, Ivey PMI.

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INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY

USD/JPY : 76.91

Last Update At 05 Sep 2011 23:11 GMT

Although dlr's broad-based strength (except vs
chf) in Aust. has kept price firm near its y'day's
high at 76.99 (Europe), broad outlook remains conso
lidative n reckon upside wud falter below 77.25 res
n bring subsequent retreat.

Sell on upmove for 76.80 or buy if dlr drops to
76.70 1st for another bounce to 77.00.


Range Forecast
76.75 / 76.95

Resistance/Support
R: 76.99 / 77.25 / 77.47
S: 76.69 / 76.53 / 76.42

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Market Review - 05/09/2011 21:58 GMT

Euro falls broadly as debt concerns mount

Increasing worries about the --------- Democratic union's most beleaguered states sent the euro lower against the dollar on Monday for the fifth day straight to its lowest level since August 5.

The single currency opened lower Monday from Friday's New York close of 1.4203 due to a series of euro-negative news over the weekend and price was under heavy pressure throughout the day, touching a session lows of 1.4061, 108.15 and 1.1019 versus the US dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc respectively in European afternoon before staging a recovery on short-covering.

An electoral loss for German Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU in her home state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on Sunday added concerns that support for the bailout package from the EU's biggest member state is waning. Talks between Greece and organizations offering financial support broke down while Italy has been unable to meet its budgetary commitments.

European stock markets tumbled Monday on risk aversion, with the FTSE-100, Euro Stoxx 50, and DAX down by 5.11% to 2107, 3.58% to 5102, and 5.28% to 5246 respectively.

The British pound fell in tandem with euro on Monday, cable quickly penetrated Friday's low at 1.6172 to 1.6135 in Australian morning before staging a minor rebound, renewed selling at European open sent the pound to its session low of 1.6061 near European closing.

Earlier on Monday, UK Lloyds employment confidence survey for August fell by the most in more than 10 years to -66 and UK Services PMI for August came in at 51.1 against 55.4 in previous month but was still in expansionary levels.

On the data front, German Services PMI for August was better than expected at 51.1 versus forecast of 50.4, and eurozone Services PMI for August was as expected at 51.5, whilst eurozone retail sales in August came in at 0.2% m/m and -0.2% y/y against consensus median forecast of -0.1% and -1.0% respectively.

Data to be released on Tuesday includes:
U.K. BRC retail sales, Australia RBA rate decision and current account, Swiss CPI, EU GDP, Germany factory orders, and U.S. ISM non-manufacturing.

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Market Review - 03/09/2011 00:05 GMT

Dollar recovers after weak U.S. jobs data

Although dollar weakened broadly after release of worse-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report as the gloomy data fuelled expectations of possible quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve at its next FOMC meeting later this month. The selloff in U.S. stocks triggered renewed risk-aversion activities and led to short-covering purchase of the greenback across the board in New York afternoon.

U.S. non-farm payrolls were much worse than market expectation as no new jobs were added vs street forecast of a 75k increase and July's figure was revised sharply down from 117k to 85k. Private payrolls came in at 17k vs forecast of 105k whilst the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback edged lower from Asian higher at 76.97 to 76.75 in European session on cross buying of yen vs other currencies. Despite dollar's recovery to 76.88, the pair quickly dipped to 76.53 in NY morning after the release of the dismal U.S. jobs data but then climbed back to 76.85 ahead of NY closing on short-covering.

The single currency ratcheted lower from Asian high at 1.4287 to 1.4209 in European morning on cross-selling of euro (eur/jpy, eur/gbp and eur/chf tumbled from 109.87 to 108.85, from 0.8820 to 0.8748 and from 1.1354 to 1.1002 respectively) together with the selloff in European equities. Despite euro's knee-jerk recovery to 1.4288 after release of the U.S. jobs data, renewed selling sent the pair lower to session low of 1.4183 in NY afternoon due to the sharp fall of U.S. stock markets.

The British pound edged higher from Thursday NY low of 1.6132 on active cross buying of sterling vs euro and rose to 1.6255 after the release of U.S. jobs data. Despite a brief but strong retreat to 1.6172, cross-buying of sterling vs euro lifted the pair again to 1.6228 in NY afternoon.

Earlier in European morning, cable was pressured after the release of U.K. Aug construction PMI which came in at 52.6 (forecast was 52.6) versus previous reading of 53.5 in July. The data suggested British construction activity expanded at its weakest pace since December, 2010 due to a slowdown in orders and output growth, as well as a more negative outlook.

The DJI tumbled by 253.31 points or 2.20% and closed at 11240.26 whilst major European bourses ended the day in the red with the FTSE-100, CAC-40, and DAX indices falling by 2.34%, 3.59% and 3.36% respectively.

Data to be released next week include:

U.K. Lloyds employment confidence, services PMI, Germany services PMI, EU services PMI, sentix investor confidence, retail sales on Monday (U.S. and Canada are closed for Labor Day market holiday).

U.K. BRC retail sales, Australia current account, RBA rate decision, Swiss CPI, EU GDP, Germany factory orders, U.S. ISM non-manufacturing on Tuesday.

Australia GDP, Japan BoJ rate decision, leading indicators, U.K. industrial production, manufacturing production, Canada BoC rate decision, Ivey PMI on Wednesday.

Japan current account, machinery orders, economic watch DI, Australia unemployment rate, trade balance, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany trade balance, export, imports, U.K. BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, Canada building permits, new housing price index, trade balance, exports, imports on Thursday.

Japan GDP, consumer confidence, Germany CPI final, HICP final, U.K. PPI input, PPI output, PPI core, Canada unemployment rate, housing starts, U.S. wholesales inventories on Friday.

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Market Review - 31/08/2011 22:00 GMT

Franc gains broadly as government accepts strength

The Swiss franc rose against all its major counterparts on Wednesday as the Swiss National Bank has not recently signalled further intervention. Although the franc retreated as Swiss Economy Minister Johann Schneider-Ammann said it was still massively overvalued, the pair remained supportive as he also said Switzerland would have to keep living with the strong franc for some time.

Dollar swiss tumbled from Australian high at 0.8209 to as low as 0.7994 in NY morning on continued worries about the eurozone debt crisis and cross buying of franc (eur/chf tumbled from 1.1852 to 1.1527). However, the comments from the Economy minister lifted the pair to 0.8093 before stabilising.

The single currency traded narrowly in Asia and then briefly recovered to 1.4470 in European morning due to the comments from a German government spokesman who said 'cabinet has approved framework for draft law on expanding eurozone rescue mechanism.' However, the pair tanked to 1.4393 after the release of better-than-expected U.S. Chicago PMI and factory orders data, price later dropped to session low at 1.4359 in NY afternoon on dollar's broad-based strength.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback declined from Australian high at 76.76 to 76.48 at NY opening before staging a brief but strong bounce to 76.84 on the strong U.S. Chicago PMI and factory orders data. However, the pair immediately fell to 76.42 before recovering due to dollar's broad based strength.

The British pound edged higher to 1.6330 in European morning but then fell to 1.6257 on cross selling of sterling vs euro. Although cable climbed back above 1.6330 to 1.6335 in NY morning, the pair tanked again in tandem with euro to 1.6230 ahead of NY closing.

On the data front, German retail sales were 0.0% m/m and -1.6% y/y vs forecasts of -1.6% and -1.9% respectively whilst employment decreased only 8K vs forecast decline of 10K. The EU unemployment rate increased from 9.9% to 10.0%.

U.S. ADP employment came in at 91K vs forecast of 110K. Chicago PMI and Factory orders of 56.5 and 2.4% exceeded expectations of 53.3 and 1.0%.

Data to be released on Thursday include:

New Zealand terms of trade, U.K. nationwide house prices, manufacturing PMI, China manufacturing PMI, HSBC manufacturing PMI, Australia retail sales, capital expenditure, Swiss GDP, retail sales, PMI, Germany GDP, manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, U.S. jobless claims, productivity, labour cost, construction spending, ISM manufacturing.

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INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK

Last Update At 31 Aug 2011 06:03 GMT

Rate : 1.4445

Current rebound after the release of better-than-
expected German retail sales data suggests choppy
consolidation abv y'day's low of 1.4385 wud con-
tinue n gain twds 1.4465 cannot be ruled out, how-
ever, reckon 1.4485 wud cap upside.

Below 1.4418 wud signal recovery is over instead,
bring resumption of decline to 1.4385 n 1.4357/60.

Range Forecast
1.4430 / 1.4460

Resistance/Support
R: 1.4465/1.4485/1.4507
S: 1.4418/1.4385/1.4357

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Market Review - 30/08/2011 22:00 GMT

Euro tanks on poor EU data and bond auction in Italy

The single currency tumbled on Tuesday as weak EU data and disappointing demand at Italy's bond auction prompted investors to sell euro.

Although the single currency edged higher to 1.4533 at Asian midday following Monday's rise to a near 2-month high of 1.4550, failure to re-test this resistance caused price to retreat at European open, the pair tumbled sharply to 1.4385 due to weaker-than-expected EU data together with the widening bond yield spread (Italian/German 10-year government bond yield spread rose above 300 basis points, the highest since ECB started buying the bonds) but later pared its losses on rumours the ECB bought significant amount of Italian 10-year bonds. Euro eventually recovered to 1.4465 in NY afternoon after the release of FOMC minutes.

The single currency was pressured as Italy sold 7.7 billion euros ($11.1 billion) of debt, including 3.75 billion euros of 10-year bonds, with the average yield of 5.22%, down from a yield of 5.77% in July. The auction was disappointing as bids for the 10-year supply exceeded the amount on offer by just 1.27 times.

EU economic and consumer sentiment were worse than expected, coming in at 98.3, the lowest since May 2010, and -16.5 vs forecasts of 100.5 and -12.0 respectively whilst EU business climate and industrial sentiment in Aug came in at 0.07 and -2.9 vs forecasts of 0.15 and -1.5 respectively.

FOMC minutes for August showed most members agreed economic outlook had deteriorated enough to warrant a response and some wanted more substantial action. They discussed a range of tools reinforcing forward guidance such as asset purchases and increasing the average maturity of the Fed's balance sheet.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback fell sharply from Australian high at 76.97 to 76.66 in European morning due to broad-based selling of yen. Despite dollar's recovery to 76.89, the pair dropped again to 76.61 on the worse-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence (44.5 vs forecast of 52.0 and the previous figure of 59.2) before stabilising.

Although the British pound ratcheted higher to 1.6419 at Asian midday, cable tumbled sharply in tandem with euro to an intra-day low of 1.6255 before rebounding to 1.6318 in NY afternoon on short-covering after the release of FOMC minutes.

Data to be released on Wednesday include:

U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Japan manufacturing PMI, industrial production, construction orders, housing starts, New Zealand NBNZ business confidence, Australia private-sector credit, Germany retail sales, unemployment rate, Unemployment change, EU HICP flash, unemployment rate, Canada GDP, U.S. ADP unemployment rate, Chicago PMI, factory orders, durable goods.

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Market Review - 29/08/2011 21:58 GMT

Dollar rises versus yen and franc on risk appetite

The greenback strengthened against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc Monday due to rally of U.S. and European stock markets as solid U.S. economic data raised investors' appetite to buy riskier assets instead of holding safe-haven currencies.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded narrowly in Asia on dollar's weakness before dropping to 76.58 in European session. However, the pair climbed to 77.02 in NY morning on risk appetite together with the rally of U.S. and European equities before retreating to 76.81 ahead of NY closing.

The DJI gained 254.71 points, or 2.26%, to 11539.25 whilst the CAC-40 and DAX closed up 2.16% and 2.39% respectively. U.K.was closed on market holiday.

The greenback was supported by better-than-expected U.S. economic data. U.S. personal income and personal spending in Jul increased 0.3% and 0.8% vs forecasts of 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. PCE index M/M and Y/Y in Jul came in at 0.4% and 2.8% whilst core PCE M/M and Y/Y were up 0.2% and 1.6% respectively.

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda was elected as the next leader of the DPJ and the vote for PM is scheduled for Tuesday.

Despite euro's retreat to 1.4466 in Asia, the single currency surged to 1.4550, it's highest level since early July on improved risk appetite in thin European session but price pared intra-day gain and retreated to 1.4485 at New York open. Although the pair met renewed buying and rebounded to 1.4546 on the rally of U.S. and European equities, offers around 1.4550 sent euro back to 1.4491 in NY afternoon before stabilising.

The British pound briefly dipped to 1.6322 in Australia but edged higher on risk appetite in Asian and European sessions. Cable eventually climbed to an intra-day high of 1.6454 in NY morning on cross buying of sterling but retreated in tandem with euro to 1.6387 in NY midday before recovering.

Data to be released on Tuesday include:

New Zealand building permits, Japan household spending, unemployment rate, retail sales, Australia building approvals, U.K. mortgage approval, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, consumer sentiment, Canada PPI, current account, U.S. SnP/CS home price, consumer confidence, FOMC minutes.

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Market Review - 25/08/2011 21:58 GMT

Dollar gains ahead of Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole

The greenback rose against other major currencies on Thursday on renewed risk aversion together with the selloff in U.S. and European equities on speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will not unveil further monetary easing at Fed's annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday.

Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback dropped briefly from Asian high of 77.15 to 76.85, the greenback rose strongly on renewed cross selling of jpy on speculation that Japan's package may boost USD funding as Japan's $100 billion credit line unveiled on Wednesday for companies investing overseas, tapping its foreign reserves despite being called 'measures to address JPY appreciation.' The pair eventually climbed to a 2-week high of 77.70 in NY afternoon on renewed risk aversion before retreating.

The single currency traded narrowly in Asia and then rose to its day high of 1.4475 in European morning on the initial gain in European stocks before retreating. Despite euro's recovery to 1.4457 in NY morning, price then tumbled sharply to 1.4328 due to the selloff of U.S. and European equities together with comments from spokesmen for the IMF and German Finance Ministry before staging a recovery to 1.4389.

The IMF spokesman said 'global economic activity has weakened, become more uneven, outlook has deteriorated.' Later, the spokesman from German Finance Ministry said 'we are not planning a general short-selling ban.'

The British pound traded sideways in Asian session and briefly recovered to 1.6398 in European morning. However, cable tumbled in tandem with euro to 1.6260 before stabilising.

On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claims were worse-than-expected at 417K vs forecast of 405K, the prior figure was revised up to 412K. U.K. CBI retail sales balance for Aug. was weaker than expected at -14 vs forecast of -5.

The DJI fell by 170.89 points, or 1.51%, to 11149.82. FTSE-100, CAC-40, and DAX were down by 1.44%, 0.65%, and 1.71% respectively.

Data to be released on Friday include:

Japan national CPI, core CPI, Tokyo CPI, Swiss KOF indicator, U.S. GDP annualised, GDP deflator, PCE core, U. Michigan survey.

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INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK

Last Update At 25 Aug 2011 06:40 GMT

Rate : 1.4430

Despite euro's selloff fm y'day's high of 1.4482
to 1.4389 in NY session, intra-day rebound fm Asian
low of 1.4390 suggests further 'choppy' sideways
move wud continue n recovery to 1.4430/40 is likely
b4 prospect of another retreat later.

For st trade, buy dips for 1.4430 or sell there
for 1.4390. Below 1.4376 wud extend twd 1.4347.

Range Forecast
1.4390 / 1.4421

Resistance/Support
R: 1.4428/1.4447/1.4482
S: 1.4376/1.4347/1.4305

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INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK

Last Update At 25 Aug 2011 06:40 GMT

Rate : 1.4430

Despite euro's selloff fm y'day's high of 1.4482
to 1.4389 in NY session, intra-day rebound fm Asian
low of 1.4390 suggests further 'choppy' sideways
move wud continue n recovery to 1.4430/40 is likely
b4 prospect of another retreat later.

For st trade, buy dips for 1.4430 or sell there
for 1.4390. Below 1.4376 wud extend twd 1.4347.

Range Forecast
1.4390 / 1.4421

Resistance/Support
R: 1.4428/1.4447/1.4482
S: 1.4376/1.4347/1.4305

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Market Review - 24/08/2011 21:57 GMT

Dollar advances broadly on speculation Fed won't provide more stimulus

The greenback rose across the board Wednesday as investors lowered their expectations that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will signal further stimulus this Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Spot gold price tumbled sharply by more than $100 to $1750.60/oz on Wednesday, one day after reaching an all-time high of $1911.40/oz.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback fell from 76.88 in Asian morning as Japanese Finance Minster Yoshihiko Noda did not explicitly mention currency intervention, instead focusing on other measures to stem the yen's rise. Although the pair dropped to 76.48 in NY morning, the greenback rebounded after the release of better-than-expected U.S. durable goods data and climbed to 77.07 in NY afternoon due to dollar's broad-based strength together with cross selling of yen as further actions by the Fed look less likely.

Earlier in Australia, Moody's lowered Japan's government rating from Aa2 to Aa3 with outlook stable. Moody's said 'frequent changes in administration have prevented government from implementing long-term economic and fiscal strategies.'

U.S. durable goods orders were 4.0% vs forecast of 2.0%, the previous figure was revised to -1.3%. U.S. durable goods ex-transport and ex-defense were 0.7% and 4.8% vs forecasts of -0.5% and 3.2% respectively.

The single currency extended its fall from Tuesday's NY high at 1.4447 in Asia to 1.4379 in European morning after the release of weaker-than-expected German IFO data. However, price rose strongly to 1.4475 on talks of the ECB was buying Italian bonds and gained further to 1.4482 in NY morning before dollar's broad-based strength sent euro sharply lower to 1.4389.

German IFO business climate and current assessment for August were reported at lower than expected 108.7 and 118.1 compared to forecasts of 111.0 and 120.0 respectively.

The British pound traded sideways in Asia and rose in tandem with euro to an intra-day high of 1.6535 in European morning. However, cable tumbled sharply to 1.6365 at NY mid-day on dollar's broad-based strength together with active cross selling of sterling vs euro (eur/gbp rallied from 0.8725 to 0.8813) before stabilising.

The DJI rose by 143.95 points, or 1.29%, to 11320.71. The FTSE-100, CAC 40, and DAX surged by 1.49%, 1.79%, n 2.69%, respectively.

On the data front, eurozone June industrial orders M/M n Y/Y are reported at -0.7% n 11.1% against forecasts of 0.5% and 12.1% respectively. U.S. home prices in June were +0.9% m/m and -4.3% y/y, prior figures were +0.4% and -6.3%, respectively.

Data to be released on Thursday include:

U.K. consumer confidence, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, Switzerland employment level, ZEW index, U.K. CBI distribution trade, U.S. jobless claims.

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