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Biggest % gainers: EUR/JPY up 0.55%, EUR/GBP, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/CHF...so mild EUR strength and mild JPY weakness today.

Biggest % losers: USD/CAD down 0.37%, GBP/USD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CHF on mild GBP weakness and mild CAD strength.

Gold $1,093
Oil $73.40

NZD Current Account improved -1.41B vs. -2.25B expected but worse than +0.12B last time.

OPEC meets all day today.

GBP Current Account better at -4.7B vs. -8.1B expected & upwardly revised previous reading of -4.4B. However, the U.K. GDP slowed down on a quarter over quarter basis. That's weighing down on the pound a bit this morning.

USD GDP q/q worse at 2.2% vs. 2.8% expected ...

EURUSD stays below a falling trend line on 4-hour chart and remains in downtrend from 1.5140, and the fall extends further to as low as 1.4218 level. Deeper decline is still possible and next target would be at 1.4150 area. Resistance is at the falling trend line on 4-hour chart now at 1.4325, as long as this level holds, we’d expect downtrend to continue. However, above 1.4325 could indicate that a short term cycle bottom has been formed and minor consolidation in a range between 1.4200 and 1.4415 could be seen to follow.



Daily Forex Forecast

[B]Bias: [/B] While 1.0506-19 caps I feel we shall more likely see a retest of 1.0372-86 before new highs next week

Even though EURUSD broke lower price here couldn't manage to really test the 1.0506 high. I see a small risk of seeing 1.0519 but I have doubts. More likely I feel we'll see this drift back lower below the 1.0460-75 pivot support area which should extend losses to 1.0435 and then to the 1.0372-86 area. I look for a base here for stronger gains. However, note next supports at 1.0345 and stronger at 1.0280-04...

Please view the complete analysis in the attached PDF file.

For a full description of how to use the analysis please see the Analysis page of my website. The prior day's set ...

Attached Files

• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (25.2 KB, 102 次查看)

Market Wire Update:

The Dollar Index And The 78.00 Area

Forex Trader Note: The dollar index is swinging around the 78.00 area, with a close above 78.50 breaking a price point that has been very important to the market in trade this year. A move under 77.50 would allow the major pairs to test the strength of recent Usd buying that as yet really has not been back to test the break-out areas.

The major pair price points show that the long-Usd trend is firmly in place, with momentum reads that are indicating that there is little room to move before overbought reads impact trade. The latest leg of dollar buying has pushed near-term time-frames into overbought reads on the dollar.

There ...