Go Back   DailyFX Forex Forum | FX Forum > Blogs

Old

Hodgepodge

Posted Yesterday at 10:46 AM by Black Swan Capital (Black Swan Capital - Currency Market Advisors)
US vs. German Yield Spreads – Tracking on the recent dollar index rally…

This from the Financial Times this morning:

Tremble: Brussels’ bureaucrats have sharpened their pencils. The European Commission wants several countries to explain how they will cut their budget deficits (so does everyone else). Eurozone capitals, meanwhile, argue over whether to bail-out Greece or bring in the International Monetary Fund. Markets are drawing their own conclusions. The combination of the eurozone’s fixed exchange rate, gaping deficits and skittish capital markets looks like the makings of an old-fashioned emerging markets debt crisis. That being so, it makes sense to look at a classic metric of debt vulnerability: rollover
...
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	untitled.jpg
Views:	7
Size:	90.0 KB
ID:	1579  

Click image for larger version

Name:	1.jpg
Views:	6
Size:	37.1 KB
ID:	1580  

Click image for larger version

Name:	2.jpg
Views:	6
Size:	51.9 KB
ID:	1581  

Black Swan Capital's Avatar
Special Guest Trader
Posted in Uncategorized
Views 124 Comments 0 Black Swan Capital is offline
Old

When It Rains It Pours, in Euroland

Posted 03-18-2010 at 10:51 AM by Black Swan Capital (Black Swan Capital - Currency Market Advisors)
The euro was the big loser yesterday, even when most other majors were able to either eke out gains or at least hold their ground versus the buck. Today the buck is higher versus the entire pack.

And today the euro presses lower for a whole slew of reasons. First, and most prevalent in the marketplace, is the continued uncertainty surrounding the bailout of Greece, from where and when and if it might come.

Headlines on Angela Merkel and Germany not abandoning its export advantages did the trick yesterday, naturally calling into question Germany’s role and commitment to helping save the European Monetary System from new trouble.

To take from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard again (thanks RS!), as I did in...
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	untitled.jpg
Views:	7
Size:	43.7 KB
ID:	1572  

Click image for larger version

Name:	1.jpg
Views:	4
Size:	38.3 KB
ID:	1573  

Black Swan Capital's Avatar
Special Guest Trader
Posted in Uncategorized
Views 64 Comments 0 Black Swan Capital is offline
Old

If Richard is right the US smokes Europe!

Posted 03-17-2010 at 03:01 PM by Black Swan Capital (Black Swan Capital - Currency Market Advisors)
Last month, we did notice that US consumer credit rose unexpectedly. It didn’t seem to get much press, as all eyes were focused on non-farm payroll.

[monthly consumer credit chart below]

The question is: Is a snapback coming? Yes, answers Morgan Stanley’s Richard Berner [our emphasis]:
Private credit demands are poised to rebound, following a record-setting bust over the past 18 months. The bursting of the housing and credit bubbles promoted massive loan losses that decimated the capital at leveraged lenders, forced deleveraging of intermediaries' balance sheets and promoted the most severe credit crunch in 70 years. In our view, that sudden withdrawal of credit availability, which actually began in the
...
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	untitled.jpg
Views:	7
Size:	52.2 KB
ID:	1566  

Black Swan Capital's Avatar
Special Guest Trader
Posted in Uncategorized
Views 92 Comments 0 Black Swan Capital is offline
Old

Your Daily Recommended Allowance of China Opinion

Posted 03-16-2010 at 10:54 AM by Black Swan Capital (Black Swan Capital - Currency Market Advisors)
Have a look at this gem from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Is China’s Politburo spoiling for a showdown with America? I won’t comment on it since we’ve included much of these same ideas frequently in the pages of Currency Currents already; nevertheless he presents these ideas forcefully and succinctly. Here’s an example of the Chinese delusion that Evans-Pritchard points out:
Days earlier the State Council accused America of serial villainy. "In the US, civil and political rights of citizens are severely restricted and violated by the government. Workers' rights are seriously violated," it said.
Sure, that’s the nightmare scenario in the US ... if complacency among US citizens ever allowed intrusive socialist and communist...
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	untitled.jpg
Views:	3
Size:	63.4 KB
ID:	1558  

Black Swan Capital's Avatar
Special Guest Trader
Posted in Uncategorized
Views 57 Comments 0 Black Swan Capital is offline
Bio: John (Jack) Ross Crooks Jr. is the president and Chief Trading Officer Black Swan Capital. Mr. Crooks has nearly 20 years experience in the currency, equity, and futures arena. Jack is a seasoned investment advisor who has held key positions in brokerage, money management, trading, and research. Mr. Crooks was also founder of Ross International Asset Management and General Manager of Plexus Trading, a discretionary money management firm, Ross International specialized in global stock, bond, and currency asset management for retail clients. Prior to entering the investment arena, Jack held various corporate finance positions. Mr. Crooks has written extensively on the subject of global currencies and international economics.

Trading Methodology: Black Swan's approach rests on three areas of analysis: fundamental, technical, and sentiment. Black Swan analyzes macro economic variables to develop an underlying theme. Black Swan also uses pattern recognition, wave analysis, oscillators, and inter-market correlations when examining price analysis over multiple time-frames. Prior to making a recommendation, Black Swan establishes risk/reward parameters by defining a stop-loss and a target for the position-vital to long-term success.

_________________
John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital

*No warranties or guarantees are made with respect to the content contained herein. The website and the guests on this site do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The advice and trading ideas provided on this website are for informational purposes only and are not intended as a trading ideas. Under no circumstances does any advice or trading idea contained herein constitute a solicitation to buy and sell currencies. We do not endorse and cannot vouch for any of the guest traders on this site.


Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:08 AM.
Copyright ©2009 Daily FX. All Rights Reserved.