[B]MAIN ANALYSIS[/B]: I was caught out in the final approach to the low, only managing to reach 79.64 and not the 79.30-40 area I had expected. The bounce was enough to break the near term downtrend and while technically we need to break above the 81.78 high to confirm the larger uptrend we should make further progress today. There is support between 79.90-05 - possibly we have already seen the low at 80.04 - but overall this should now move higher to the 80.48-64 area (prefer the higher) for a 15-20 point pullback and then the approach to the 81.07-20 area minimum. Allow for a little more with a corrective high at 81.44 but we shouldn't get above the 81.78 high today.
[B]COUNTER ANALYSIS[/B]: A direct break below 79.64 would resurrect the 79.30-40 target. It's worth watching but it would seem more logical for extension to a lower retracement target at 79.13 or 78.74… and a lower one at 78.45.
For more information regarding the support & resistance and medium term outlook please see the attached PDF file.
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.