[B]MAIN ANALYSIS[/B]: While price reached the initial 1.2298-10 area and corrected back to 1.2250-60, it failed to hold on the second attempt and dropped to 1.2216 from where it has made further gains. There is resistance around 1.2292 that should represent resistance in a triangle to provoke one last dip to the 1.2242-55 area. This should then be the last leg of the triangle and from there expect a push above 1.2292. We should take care at the 1.2333 corrective high just in case this provokes a correction but I suspect overall that this could reach to around the 1.2364 pivot area before correcting lower. Above there note the 1.2427 retracement area.
[B]COUNTER ANALYSIS[/B]: Any earlier break below 1.2235-42 would break the triangle scenario and thus we should be aware of possible alternatives. It could be that we see a flat correction back to the 1.2188 low. We should also consider an expansion at 1.2103-25 although I feel this would be a top heavy pattern. If so then the downside would then extend to 1.2017 at least.
For more information regarding the support & resistance and medium outlook please see the attached PDF file.
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