[B]MAIN ANALYSIS[/B]: Price saw an extremely choppy ride last week. At this point it is pointing lower but there is some ambiguity over whether this can continue to extend losses or reverse back to the 78.93-11 area before seeing the larger downtrend resume. The key resistance is at 78.40. If this breaks then expect gains to make there way back to the 78.79 high en route the 78.93-11 area. I suspect this will cap to allow the downtrend to resume. Also note the deeper retracement area at 79.27.
[B]COUNTER ANALYSIS[/B]: While 78.40 caps there remains the chance that price is resuming the larger downtrend with a break below 77.91-07 seeing the 77.66 low tested. This may well hold and given the last few week's pattern of slow development we still have to be cautious about a choppy market. The next larger target is at 77.08.
For more information regarding the support and resistance and medium term outlook please see the attached PDF file.
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