The Daily Forecaster

[B]Bias: [/B]Above 120.45 would extend gains to 121.25-54 at least while below 119.00 sees losses

Overall price movement was not quite in line with expectations although it did end higher and this morning has set a minor new high also. It is strengthening the bullish argument and a break above the 120.45 high seen this morning would extend gains up to 121.25-54 at least. Take care here as this could cap in the short term at least. Thus only breach would extend gains above the 122.15 corrective high and onto 123.17. I feel this stands a chance of capping on the day. Thus only above maintains the bullish momentum for 123.77.

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[B]Bias:[/B] Early trading should see 1.2625-35 but then a pullback remaining above 1.2530-50

The 1.2510 support broke but only led to losses to 1.2467 from where we have seen a solid recovery. I feel that first thing we should see these gains extend to the 1.2625-35 area but this should cap. Expect the retracement to reach the 1.2550 area (max 1.2530) following which the upside can follow-through once again. A move above the 1.2635 area would the provoke follow-through to above 1.2671 and onto the 1.2764 high with a final target expected in the 1.2804-31 area.

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[B]Bias:[/B] While 0.6415-25 caps I look for losses back to 0.6330-58 and later to 0.6227-47

No break lower yesterday and while I expect losses today we may just see the range persist. There is resistance at 0.6415-25 and this must cap while the downside can resume. From this area a break back below 0.6395 would assist and cause losses to around 0.6358. At first this should hold for one final recovery that should remain below 0.6400 and then a subsequent break below 0.6330 would allow losses to resume in a stronger manner to 0.6247-57 and probably 0.6227 where I expect a correction to develop.

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[B]Bias: [/B]We need the 1.4320 area to cap to retain a directly bearish stance for 1.4115 & probably 1.4028-50

Yesterday saw a successful cap at 1.4300-20 but the breach of the prior 1.4136 low only saw another 13 pips before it rushed back to 1.43 again. Ideally I'd like to think this has completed a complex correction & thus the decline should resume. The slow start concerns and thus it may be better to wait for loss of the 1.4190 low to look for additional losses down below 1.4115-23, then onto the 1.4070 area. Expect a small pullback but then a test of the 1.4050 low & possibly just below stalling between 1.4006-28 (max 1.3962.)

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