The Daily Forecaster

Bias: Just a little mixed - would prefer a pullback to 0.8430-52 but would not fight a break of 0.8327-38

Overall I remain bearish but do note a 4-hour bullish divergence which makes me cautious. I can see good reasons for the need of a deeper pullback towards the 0.8430-52 area and in terms of a tidy structure I'd much prefer this. However, best wait for a move above the 0.8360 pivot area which should extend gains to the 0.8385 high and above for 0.8404-10 minimum and I prefer the 0.8430-52 area as a cap and for the downtrend to resume. Only above 0.8360 would maintain the upside for 0.8473-94...

Any earlier break below the 0.8327 low would imply more direct losses through 0.8306, 0.8283 and 0.8265 en route ...

Attached Files

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[B]Bias: [/B] While 1.4438-56 supports there is room for one last high between 1.4529-54 before losses

Price rallied just about perfectly and has entered the 1.4494-29 resistance target area. Cautiously I still feel that there should be one last push higher. Ideally the 1.4435-56 area should support to then push back above 1.4496-12 and through to 1.4529 at least but allow for 1.4561. This is where I feel we shall see the top and for losses to develop. Be aware that when the reversal occurs it could be quite persistent at first, initially back to 1.4438-56 and then later a much stronger drop to the 1.4303-45 area. That should hold for a correction higher.

Only an earlier break above 1.4565 would concern and extend ...

Attached Files

• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (33.8 KB, 115 次查看)

Bias: I can't rule out a move to 1.6221-43 but overall still feel we have one more leg lower to come

Price did move higher in the early stages of yesterday to reach the 1.6162-79 target area but then broke higher to 1.6208. I can't see any glaring evidence of a top though I feel the downside risk should always be respected. Indeed, there does appear to be risk of the upside extending just a little further to the 1.6221-45 area where we should be looking for evidence of a topping pattern. A move below 1.6170 would assist for losses through 1.6140 and to the 1.6110-15 pivot support. Break here would encourage for losses to retest the 1.6058 low and then we need to watch how this extends...

Only back above 1.6250 ...

Attached Files

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[B]Bias: [/B] While 1.4099-22 caps I look for losses to extend to 1.3899 and 1.3859-86 at least

Losses developed and far swifter than expected and these should be expected to extend again today. I see resistance in the 1.4099-22 area which should ideally hold. If this extends any further then the 1.4143 & 1.4169 levels also present potential caps. Overall once the decline resumes I shall look for a move back below yesterday's 1.3968 low and down through 1.3929 and 1.3899 to reach the 1.3859-86 area at least. Once down in this area we'll have to be more careful. I feel this support will hold for a correction higher but also note the 1.3822-32 support which is a more extended target for a pullback higher.

I can't ...

Attached Files

• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (33.4 KB, 131 次查看)