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[B]Bias: [/B] While 0.8852-75 caps there may be risk of one more dip - else look for gains to resume

The 0.8944 high did hold and caused a moderately firm decline. When I first saw it I began to wonder whether it provided the final high and for a stronger follow-through lower. Well, it's an option but not the favored one. We will need losses below 0.8775 to begin to raise that as a stronger signal. Right now I see resistance between 0.8852-75. Now, this could be treated as just a pullback and for losses to resume. If a bearish trade set up develops then it would seem right for losses to return to the 0.8802 low and potentially just below to 0.8775 where it has potential to find a base and for the uptrend to resume.
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• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (33.6 KB, 81 次查看)

[B]Bias: [/B] I see initial losses followed by a pullback before extension lower.

Friday's gains weren't as sustained as expected and the more direct resumption of losses actually implies a more mature corrective structure from the 1.4939 high. Early trading should see these extend further down into the 1.3897-14 area (probably stalling above 1.3900) to generate a correction higher into the 1.4093-1.4128 resistance area. I look for this to cap and generate the next leg lower.

Only above 1.4140 would add another complicated twist to the story. We would then need to observe the 1.4152 corrective high and the 1.4180-85 pivot resistance ahead of the stronger 1.4200-35 resistance area. A more direct break below 1.3885 ...

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• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (33.3 KB, 95 次查看)

[B]Bias: [/B] I feel we should see losses, but could be choppy.

Well, a marginal new high was seen but only by another 2 points to 81.33. I think that was just arather large and clumsy overlapping terminal move and thus the downside should now be at risk. At this point, as things stand, there doesn't appear to be an awful amount of downside thrust. I think therefore we may have to consider the potential for a triangle developing but this still means a move back down to 79.82-98. The only way I can see a stronger decline is, perhaps ironically, an initial move back to the 81.15-20 area. This will need a stronger and more direct decline to generate the type of thrust needed to imply more sustained and direct losses. Thus, which ...

Attached Files

• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (33.6 KB, 81 次查看)

[B]Bias: [/B] While 1.0713 holds I feel there is room for losses to 1.0644 before another correction

The rally stalled in the 1.0876-89 area but then dropped directly through 1.0840-50 to confirm the resumption of losses. The current situation is a little tricky as while 1.0713 caps there is still a risk that we could see losses extend below 1.0663 to reach 1.0644. If this is seen then we should see a correction from here that should move back above 1.0713 and into the
1.0736-46 area. If this early dip to 1.0644 is seen then the 1.0746 area should cap for another leg lower. Only directly below 1.0640 would maintain the downtrend for 1.0587 and a move closer to the 1.0536 low.

Any early failure for 1.0713 ...

Attached Files

• The Brief Daily Forecaster.pdf (33.2 KB, 82 次查看)